Five Burning Fantasy Baseball Draft Questions: Outfield

1.  Who should be the first player off the board?

Ryan Braun or Grady Sizemore, Grady Sizemore or Ryan Braun? Really tough choice here. Those who would pick Sizemore will argue for his speed and power combination and the fact that outside of his batting average, his other stats have continued to improve over the past three seasons. Those who would argue for Braun would state that his two year averages are .309 average, 35 HRs, 103 RBI, and 14 steals.

Both guys are tremendous young studs with incredibly bright futures ahead of them, but given the choice of the two I would have to select Braun in a very tough call. Even though his power and steal numbers have increased over the past three seasons, Sizemore’s batting average and runs scored have been falling. His power and speed are great, but he has yet to top 90 RBI.

The only other concern I have with Sizemore is his durability. I know he hasn’t missed many games in his career, but the guy plays centerfield with reckless abandon, and one of these times he lays out for a fly ball or goes face first into the wall he’s not going to get up so quickly. It hasn’t happened yet, but it is always in the back of my mind. 

Braun has only been around for two seasons, but they have both been outstanding. If you look at his minor league numbers, his average and power numbers are definitely legit, and in fact they have a chance to improve. He is just 25-years-old, and the sky is the limit for Braun. There isn’t much more to say about him, the numbers speak for themselves.

2.  Whose statistics will start to drop off?

The most highly publicized player who will probably see a dip in production will be the A’s Matt Holliday. I don’t expect his statistics to fall off as far as some other people, but there are several factors to take into consideration. 

First, he goes from one of the more hitter friendly home parks in Colorado to one of the most cavernous in Oakland. Coors Field was kind to him as he hit 30 points higher there, had five more homers and 30 more RBI than on the road. He also won’t have the same kind of hitters around him in the lineup. Aging hitters like Jason Giambi and Eric Chavez provide him some “protection”  along with “all-or-nothing” Jack Cust.

Lastly, a move to the American League will give him a whole new set of pitchers to face that he has either rarely seen, or never seen before. There should be a transition phase that will most likely cost him some of his usual outstanding numbers.

I expect a drop in batting average to around the .300 mark and his steals to be in the 15-18 range, rather than the 28 he stole in 2008. His home runs and RBI should remain close to the levels they were at last year.

There is nothing in Nate McLouth’s career statistics that would make you think that he is capable of hitting 26 home runs again in 2009. Throughout his minor and major league career he was great on the basepaths, and could in fact increase his steals total from last year, but expecting even 20 homers again is just not logical. 

His career high before last year was 13 that he hit in 2007, but there is nothing in his minor league career that suggested this kind of power was on the horizon. Now, it isn’t impossible for a guy to get better as he gets older, but he has doubled his homer production from year to year in the last three seasons.

Why would that possibly continue? He is due for a good step back. If you draft McLouth, be realistic and be happy with a .268 average with 15 HRs, 71 RBI, and 27 steals.

Finally, Ryan Ludwick broke out in a BIG way in 2008 with an All-Star season of .299 batting average, 37 HRs, and 113 RBI. He toiled a long time without a starting job with the Rangers and Indians but thrived as soon as the Cardinals gave him the everyday chance. 

Now, Ludwick did hit for power at all levels of the minors, as well as his limited action while in the major leagues. For example, in 2006 he hit 28 HRs at AAA, so it isn’t absolutely crazy to expect another fine season from him.

Another .300 average is most likely out of the question, and although he has hit for power throughout his career, another 35+ season is a lot to hope for. In a crowded Cardinals outfield, Ludwick will excel again, but at a lower level. Look for a .275 average with 26 HRs and 90 RBI.

3.  Who can be viewed as a “value pick?”

In the mid to late rounds many players will start stretching for young guys who have a ton of potential, but most likely won’t make an impact in that particular season. A smarter decision might be a veteran, even an aging veteran, who has been consistent but just isn’t very exciting. 

Sometimes you will draw some sarcastic comments from other owners for making these picks, but winning teams need some consistency instead of hoping that you find a breakout.

Sure he’s been injured some, but Torii Hunter has been a fairly consistent producer throughout his career. You can pretty much write him down for a .275-.280 average, 23-27 HRs, 85-95 RBI, and 15-18 stolen bases.

I’m not exactly sure why people don’t want to pick a guy like that, but I guarantee that someone will take a chance on a guy like Cameron Maybin and pass up someone like Hunter.

OK, so as of this writing he still doesn’t have a team, but Bobby Abreu fits this category as well. He has driven in over 100 runs in seven of the last eight years, and while his home run totals have varied some, his batting average has never been below .283 during that time. He has stolen 20+ bases for ten straight seasons, including a career high of 40.

While that number is basically unattainable at this point of his career, no matter what team he ends up on Abreu will help your team in 2009.

I was in one draft recently where a guy actually got made fun of for drafting Raul Ibanez. Granted, he isn’t the sexiest or most exciting pick, but if you look at his stats you could do much worse. Over the last three years, Ibanez has averaged hitting .291 with 26 HRs and 113 RBI. He is always drafted in the later rounds of drafts, yet he always gives you fairly consistent production.

He now moves to Philadelphia, whose home ball park is not unlike a Matchbox version of a real stadium, meaning an increase in power could be coming.

4.  Which young guns will take the next step in 2009?

With Andruw Jones officially out of the picture, look for Andre Ethier to have a nice increase in his statistics. It was a crowded Dodgers’ outfield in 2008, and no one knew when they would be playing. Despite this situation, Ethier still hit .305 with 20 HRs. He should have an everyday job now, so look for his average to approach the .320 mark with around 25 HRs and near 100 RBI.

The main piece of the Erik Bedard trade (you think the M’s want that one back?), Adam Jones is looking like a serious breakout candidate for 2009.

In the middle of May his average was in the .230s, but he was able to get it up to a respectable .270 by season’s end. He didn’t show much power, hitting only nine HRs in 132 games played, but he certainly showed power when he was in the minor leagues, connecting on 41 bombs in his final 200 games down on the farm. 

He will give you a bit of speed, probably maxing out at around 15-18 SBs in a season. It has been reported that Jones packed on a lot of muscle in the offseason in hopes of improving his game. Don’t stretch too far for the young man, but his time is coming. Is it now?

A converted third baseman and one of the top prospects in San Diego, Chase Headley spent much of 2008 trying to learn the outfield. And although he struggled through some of his rookie season, Headley’s future is still very bright. He is a strikeout machine, and will most likely be throughout his career, but Headley also has the capabilities to be a 30 HR guy.

That almost certainly won’t happen this season, but this is a guy to target later on in your draft. He will definitely be starting for the Padres as they have gotten rid of everyone who makes any kind of money. Headley showed good power at all levels in the minors, and I believe it will slowly translate to the major leagues. He won’t give you speed, but should hit around .275-.290 if he lives up to his potential and has a chance to be a real star in the near future.

5.  Will 2009 be all about the Uptons?

At just 21, young Justin Upton still has plenty to prove, but he still has plenty of time to prove it. Fantasy owners need to be patient with this young man, because one of these years he will be a mega star.

Will that be 2009?  Doubtful, but anything is possible. Justin started out like a house of fire with five HRs in the first two weeks of the year. He would finish with just 15 after hitting a prolonged slump, but there were definitely flashes of greatness in there.

If you draft the younger Upton you have to expect that there will be growing pains this season.  He’s going to strikeout too much, he will probably top out at a .265 average, but if he happened to hit 30 HRs this season, would you be totally shocked?

After hitting just nine HRs in the regular season in 2008, B.J. Upton connected for seven in the postseason. So which Upton will show up in 2009? He had surgery after the World Series to repair a torn labrum and will likely miss the very beginning of the season. 

I wouldn’t expect that to last past the second or third week of the season, but the concern is the injury he sustained. Other players with a torn labrum have had seasons of much less power than they were used to, so to expect more than 20 from B.J. might be pushing it.

The good thing about the older Upton, however, is his ability to steal bases.  Ok, so he only hit nine HRs, but he did steal 44 bases keeping his value high. You can expect him to hit 15-20 HRs and perhaps approach 50 steals.

Do you have your own questions? Do you disagree? As always, your comments and questions are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss “The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show” on Blog Talk Radio every Wednesday night at 10pm EST.