Shawn Hill Beats Nats at Arbitration: Will He Stay Healthy Enough To Matter?

Washington Nationals’ pitcher Shawn Hill was the first major league player to go through arbitration this year.

History, and his 2008 record, made beating the Nationals  a long-shot at best.

Since the process began in 1973, owners have beaten the players 65 percent of the time.

Players with between three to six years of experience are offered arbitration, where both the club and the player submit a figure to an arbitration panel, who must pick one figure or the other.

There is no negotiating.

Both sides provide justification for their request.

The player’s statistics, his team leadership, special accomplishments such as awards, All-Star appearances, the clubs attendance and record and salaries of comparable players are all included in the process.

All of which means Hill didn’t have a chance.

Playing for the worst team in baseball, Hill went 1-5, 5.83 in just 12 starts before injuries ended his season in June. His WHIP (base runners per inning) was a ridiculous 1.75, about as bad as you can find in the major leagues.

Hill asked for $775,000, almost twice his 2008 salary of $402,000. The Nationals offered a raise of nearly $100,000 to $500,000.

Should have been a no-brainer.

And to the arbitration panel, it was.

Shawn Hill won.

Let’s forget the money for a moment. $275,000-in the world of baseball anyway-is pocket change.

What does his win mean in terms of the Nationals’ pitching staff for 2009?

Nothing. Well, nothing yet, that is.

In 2006, John Patterson and Shawn Hill were supposed to be the Nationals’ co-aces for the next decade. Their stuff was described as “nasty” and “un-hittable.”

Three years later, Patterson was forced to retire and Hill is coming off yet another serious surgery on his pitching arm. Dr. William Andrews operated on his elbow in September and it was hoped he would be ready for Spring Training.

The Nationals feared that a second Tommy John surgery would be necessary, but the removal of bone spurs was believed to have fixed the problem.

Thus far, Hill has reported that he feels good, though he’s yet to throw at full strength. He told the panel that he just completed a 45-pitch bullpen session that was “pain free.”

“I’m just like the rest of the pitching staff heading into Spring Training,” Hill said, “No restrictions and no special concerns.”

Of course, Hill said he felt fine about this time last year as well. He was coming off elbow surgery in September 2007 that was to fix nerve damage in that same elbow.

And that didn’t work out too well. So who really knows what Hill’s future holds.

In fact, Hill hasn’t been completely healthy since the 2005 season when he underwent Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire year and did not pitching again until May 2006.

He lasted less than a month, pitching in six games before his elbow gave out and was again lost for the season.

Hill began the 2007 season as the team’s No. 2 starter and pitched well until forearm pain forced him onto the 15-day disabled list. He returned in June and was without question the Nationals’ best pitcher until (you guessed it) forearm problems forced the team to shut him down early.

Another surgery followed.

Are you getting my drift here?

Since being named to the Nationals’ rotation in 2006, Hill should have started at least 105 games.

He’s started 34.

But there is a reason why guys like Kerry Wood and Mark Prior keep getting chance after chance to win a job after a career full of injuries.

They are that good.

And while you might be surprised at that kind of comparison, let me tell you, Shawn Hill is that good.

Really.

Hill is from the Canadian province of Ontario, not exactly a hot bed of baseball. The 6’2”, 185-pound, 27-year-old has been dealing with injury problems since his senior year at Bishop Reading High School.

He played first base while wearing a cast.

He was selected by the San Diego Padres in the 33rd round of the 1999 Major League amateur draft but didn’t sign.

It wasn’t about money. He had injured his arm late in the season and the Padres didn’t want to take a chance on his health.

After a year of recovery, Hill was taken by Expos in the sixth round of the 2000 draft.

He still wasn’t completely healthy when he reported to the Gulf Coast Expos, and it showed.

In seven starts, Hill went 1-3, 4.81.

His internal numbers were just as bad.

Still, the team saw enough ability in him that he was promoted to short-season Vermont in 2001.

Still concerned about his arm, Hill was limited to seven starts, but pitched brilliantly, going 2-2, 2.37 in 35 innings. His WHIP (base runners per nine innings allowed) was a misprint-like 0.84.

Suddenly, Hill’s name began to appear on the Expos’ list of top prospects.

Over the next two seasons, Hill quickly rose through the Expos’ farm system. Spending time at ‘A’ Clinton (Midwest), ‘A+’ Brevard (Florida State) and ‘AA’ Harrisburg (Eastern), Hill went a combined 24-12, 3.27 and maintained a solid 1.33 WHIP.

He made it to Montreal late in 2004, but got roughed up pretty badly, partly because of his inexperience at the major league level but mainly because his elbow was hurting him so badly.

Shortly after the season was over, the damage was discovered and the Tommy John surgery was performed. The operation was a complete success but it took Hill more than a year of recuperation before he was ready to throw a baseball competitively again.

He made it back to the major leagues in May of 2006, but the rust and inactivity had taken their toll. Hill pitched poorly, going just 1-3, 4.66 in six starts with the Nationals.

Hill’s career was at a crossroads when he reported for Spring Training in 2007. For the first time in three years, he wasn’t considered a real prospect. But for the first time in three years, Hill was 100 percent healthy.

He had to produce or risk being released by the team.

And oh, how he produced.

In five starts, Hill went 1-0, 0.93, giving up just 16 hits in 19 innings. He outperformed every other pitcher and went into Opening Day as the National’s No. 2 starter.

For the most part, 2007 was a magical year for Shawn Hill.

He went 4-5, 3.42 in 16 starts with Washington.

Doesn’t look magical, you say?

True, the year in total was just average. But when you factor out the injuries and time lost because of them, Hill was as dominant a pitcher as there was in the National League in 2007.

Remember, Hill was out most of July and August due to forearm pain, and it returned in late August. Hill pitched through the pain and pitched poorly. In those five starts before he was finally placed on the disabled list, Hill posted a 6.26 ERA, allowed a .322 opponents batting average, a .376 OBP and a .556 slugging percent.

The forearm was hurting and it showed in his numbers.

But if you want to see what a healthy Shawn Hill can do, if you want to see why the Nationals don’t feel all that bad about losing their arbitration hearing yesterday, let’s take a look at what Hill did during those games when he was healthy.

In 11 starts, Hill went 3-2, 2.22. In 65 innings, he allowed just 45 hits and had a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Opponents hit just .190 against him and managed a meager .260 on-base percentage and a paltry .292 slugging percentage.

Hill averaged less than 3.5 pitches per batter, and 65 percent of those pitches were strikes.

His 3.42 ERA was 12th best in the National League and it led all Nationals’ pitchers. His 11 quality starts also led the Nationals and his 69% quality start percentage was eighth best in the National League.

But wait, there’s more!

He allowed two runs or less in 14 of his 16 starts and Hill’s .235 opponent’s batting average was seventh best in the National League. His 2:1 groundball to flyball ratio-which gave his fielders more opportunities to make outs-was the league’s sixth best.

And he did all this by confusing opposing hitters. Hill has a solid 93 mph fast ball and a 91 mph sinker. The batter can’t differentiate between the two until it’s too late. They either swing and miss or make contact, grounding out weakly to an infielder.

Hill also has a very good curve and a professional change up.

That’s why the Nationals keep hoping that one day-God willing-he’ll get healthy and stay healthy.

Now I certainly understand that this is a relatively small sample that we’re looking at. But those 11 games are representative of his career numbers when he is healthy. He can do it.

The question is, will he?

Going into Spring Training, Scott Olsen, John Lannan and Daniel Cabrera are locks for the Nationals’ starting rotation. Prospect Jordan Zimmermann is almost a lock and Colin Balester is likely to at least start the season in the rotation.

That said, a healthy Shawn Hill would be right at the front of this rotation, probably at the expense of Balester. And the Nationals would be pleased as punch were that to happen.

A healthy Hill would be like manna from heaven. He could easily win 14 games and keep his ERA in the low 3.00s. And he could change the complexion of the team’s entire season.

Let’s say the Nationals remain healthy and their starting lineup produces as hoped. If Shawn Hill remains healthy and racks up the wins, the Nationals might be tempted to forgo-at least for 2009-the youth movement and *gasp* try to contend for a playoff spot.

Well, not contend. But certainly they could garner some respect around the league.

There are a lot of “if’s” there, granted. But a healthy Shawn Hill could push the Nationals even farther towards that respectable season. And using Hill and Odalis Perez in the rotation won’t win the team any titles, it will lead to more wins, which might mean that next year, the big-name free agents might be more apt to consider signing with the Nationals.

And if that were to happen, things could really get interesting in 2010.