2012 MLB Draft Results: First-Round Risks That Won't Pay off

It's always impossible to predict which player is going to go where in the MLB draft. Teams have such disparate needs—and so many of them—and as a result, there are so many possible directions in which to go.

Factor into that each player's signability, which is often unpredictable until during or after the draft, and it's all one big guessing game.

That's how a top prospect ends up falling out of the top five and how a player with decent defense but questionable offensive capabilities ends up in the top 10.

Here's a look at some of this year's first-round risks who are bound to be busts.

Mark Appel, Pittsburgh Pirates

There are a lot of reasons to like Appel. For one, he was the top-rated right-handed power pitching prospect on this year's board, and lots of pundits had him going No. 1 overall to the Astros. But the Astros—and the six teams that followed them in the order—were right to back off from him.

There's a reason lots of college studs who are used to going very, very deep into games never see the light of the major leagues, and it's because their arms burn out early on in their careers. Appel, who is used to throwing upwards of 130 pitches per game, projects to be exactly that type of pitcher. In one game against Oregon this season, he hit the 149-pitch mark, and though scouts were impressed that he was still lingering around 97 mph at that point, there is no way that can bode well for his future.

There's a reason professional pitchers don't often stay in the game beyond 100 or 110 pitches, and it's because if they throw too many pitches too often, they need elbow surgery before they even get to the majors. Here's hoping the Pirates didn't just waste their No. 8 pick on someone whose arm is going to be toast in a year or two.

Deven Marrero, Boston Red Sox

Marrero, like Appel, was slated by some to go a lot higher in the draft than he actually did. He fell all the way to the Red Sox at No. 24, and despite the fact that Boston looked very smart the last time it drafted a shortstop out of Arizona State (that would be Dustin Pedroia), they aren't likely to encounter the same payoff this time around.

For one thing, Marrero's been hampered by an ankle injury this season, but that can't be the only reason his numbers have dropped from .397 to .315 to .284 during his three years with the Sun Devils. If he can't hit in the ultra-competitive Pac-12, it's hard to know how he'll project as a hitter at the next level. Scouts rave about his defense, but with Jose Iglesias already in Boston's farm system, it's unlikely that Marrero will remain at shortstop.

The Red Sox have a notoriously good scouting department and farm system, but even so, Marrero may be more bust than boom. Plus, the Sox haven't had tons of success drafting, or signing, quality shortstops of late.

Lucas Giolito, Washington Nationals

This was perhaps the riskiest selection of any this year because despite the fact that Giolito once projected to be an incredible asset, that was before he sat out most of this season because of a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. He may be the perfect size at 6'6", and he may be able to hit 93 mph consistently, but if he's already suffering arm injuries as a high school senior, it's hard to tell how it will affect his velocity and his accuracy in the long term.

The Nationals weren't afraid to bite on Giolito anyway at No. 16, but it seems likely that if any pitcher is going to burn out due to injury, it's this guy. Even without the injury concerns, Giolito is still a risk because he may not sign in favor of defecting to UCLA. The Nats have about $2.125 million to sign him, according to the Washington Post, but if they don't spend more, they might not be able to compel him to sign. In this case, the risks far outweighed the benefits, and the Nats will probably have to pay, either literally or figuratively.