The Chicago Cubs in 2009: Two-Tiered To Argue About It

When asked to forecast the 2009 season for the Cubs, I abandoned all personal responsibility and instead created a random 10-song playlist to serve as my Magic Eight-Ball.

Here’s what I got, translated into predictions for 2009:

Song No. 1: One Less Set of Footsteps (Jim Croce)

Translation: This song tells me that unless he rediscovers his power swing, Derek Lee will forget all but the most immediate past and continue to hit into a maddening number of double plays, just like last season.

Song No. 2: I Don’t Care Anymore (Phil Collins)

Translation: This is what fans will really be thinking while outwardly justifying the acquisition of Milton Bradley.

Song No. 3: Crying, Waiting, Hoping (Buddy Holly)

Translation: All of these are likely fan responses while waiting for any routine fly ball to left field to land in Alfonso Soriano’s glove.

The rest of the songs really didn’t have anything to do with baseball. I quietly thanked my iPod for not choosing songs with “Sorry” or “Heartbreak” or “Miracle” in the title. That would be trite.

That still leaves a few questions to answer and predictions to make.

Question No. 1: Who will be the victim in this year’s odds-bending, Soriano-leaping-five-feet-in-the-air-I-hope-he-doesn't-break-his-ankle-on-the-way-down come-from-behind victory?

Prediction: In 2007, the Cubs fell behind the Brewers 5-0, only to win thanks to Aramis Ramirez’s game-winning homer.

Last season, they spotted the Colorado Rockies an eight-run lead and stormed back to victory. And of course, Geo Soto’s dramatic two-out, bottom of the ninth, three-run homer led the Cubs to another stunner against the Brewers.

So whose heart gets broken in 2009? I’m looking at you, Dusty. And whose ankle gets broken? Oh, Sori. Will you never learn?

Question No. 2: Will the Cubs use the world’s first two-tiered pitching rotation?

Prediction: By “two-tiered” I don’t mean the typical starting rotation that’s set one through three with a parade of swing men or minor leaguers auditioning for spots four and five.

The Cubs have a lot of strong starters of questionable reliability. This means the Cubs are built for a two-month, 16-team, NBA-like, playoff marathon, not a short pennant series.

But if the Cubs count on Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, and Carlos Zambrano every six days as their first-tier starters and rotate the more fragile Rich Harden, maybe Jake Peavy, and the less experienced Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, and Aaron Heilman through second tier, viola: you have a two-tiered rotation that gives all the pitchers plenty of rest...until the playoffs, a place where Lou Piniella has demonstrated over the past two seasons that he can’t handle a rotation.

You just can’t have five pitchers start three games.

Question No. 3: Is this...the year? The year that the Cubs win the World Series?

Prediction: It’s clear that Lou and GM Jim Hendry are flummoxed and discombobulated by the past two seasons’ quick playoff exits. They lost some of the leadership and media diversion offered by Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa that helps a team stay together and focused through the long regular season but did no good in the 2007 or 2008 playoffs.

This, along with the fact that the Cubs turned over about half of their 2008 Opening Day roster, suggests that they are taking the regular season for granted...With the encouragement of the rest of the NL Central.

So in 2009, it’s all in, baby, and sorry Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, and maybe Josh Vitters, your net present value is zippo. Adios.

Do we regret letting go of other sure-fire superstars like Corey Patterson, Bobby Hill, Kevin Orie...Oh, look at me, now I’m crying...Karl Pagel, Pat Tabler, Rafael Palmeiro, Lou Brock (actually, those two guys turned out pretty well for other teams)...That one guy who ended up pitching and playing outfield...No, not Rick Ankiel, the guy before him...Yeah, him.

Would we have won with them? No.

My two-tiered final predictions

If the Cubs make the playoffs, they will win the pennant. Maybe the World Series. It depends on whether some other team’s Year of Destiny is stronger than the Cubs’ YOD.

Nobody in the National League qualifies. In the A.L.? Yes, I’m thinking of the Rays. Or the Orioles. It just fits the trend.

If the Cubs don’t make the playoffs, you’ll want to make sure you have sturdy concrete barriers protecting the walls near the loading dock, because there will be a backing up of trucks and cleaning out of houses that reaches far and wide, high and low, and we won’t have a conversation like this again until around 2014...the 100th anniversary of Wrigley Field.