Philadelphia Phillies Offense Ready to Defend Title

No team comes into the 2009 season with more expectations of success than the 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

That being said, no team has won back-to-back World Series titles since the Yankees accomplished a three-peat from 1998-2000.

If the Phillies are going to repeat, the potent Phillies batting order must advance past the vastly improved New York Mets, the always dangerous Florida Marlins, the once-proud Atlanta Braves, and last season’s early surprise-leader (but fast fading) Washington Nationals.

To evaluate this Philadelphia Phillies lineup, you have to start with Ryan Howard.

In his short three-year career, he has posted more than 35 home runs and 100 RBI each year. Last year, Howard had 199 strike outs, but lead the league in both home runs and RBI with 48 and 146, respectively.

But don’t expect Howard to raise his .251 average to hit singles.

I finally understood his value after hearing it on the television: He does not get paid to hit for average and singles. He gets paid to hit more home runs than any player in Major League baseball. If he hits .269 with 30 home runs and 110 RBI, his value is not as high.

The shift on him is as dramatic as any power hitter. The third baseman plays just left of second, the shortstop over second base, the second baseman in short right field, and the first baseman just off the bag.

The shift matters not when Howard is in a groove. He hits with power to all fields. When September comes, he can carry the team for two weeks at a time—that much is a given.

Keys to the Phillies batting order, in my mind, depend on the success/failure of three players: Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth.

Here is my batting order for the Phillies if I was manager:

Jimmy Rollins

Jayson Werth

Chase Utley

Ryan Howard

Raul Ibanez

Shane Victorino

Pedro Feliz

Carlos Ruiz

Pitcher

The biggest change in the Phillies lineup is the subtraction of slugger Pat Burrell and the addition of Raul Ibanez.

Ibanez is another left-handed hitter and when he was added to the team, Charlie Manuel, in a television interview, seemed at a loss to figure how to work in another left-handed batter.

Don’t worry. Manuel has figured it out by now.

Ibanez is a lifetime .286 hitter and hit better against left-handers last year than right handed pitching (.305/.288). Ibanez is not the home run hitter Burrell was, but management wanted a more consistent hitter than Burrell.

You got him and he will hit a ton of doubles and play nine innings—not seven like Burrell.

One of the early cogs of the Phillies lineup could miss the first month or two of the season following off-season hip surgery.

Chase Utley hit .292 with 33 home runs and 104 RBI. Eric Brunlett and/or rookie Jason Donald will fill in until Utley comes back. Utley is shooting to come back on Opening Day. A delay for Utley could spell disaster for the Phillies if the Mets start off hot. If he is back by May, the Phillies will recover.

Third baseman Pedro Feliz (.249) and Carlos Ruiz (.219) fill out the bottom of the offense. Defense is their strong suits.

Jimmy Rollins should have another solid year at the plate and is a switch-hitter. Werth is right-handed, but Utley, Howard, and Ibanez are lefties. Victorino is also a switch-hitter and the bottom of the lineup are both right-handed hitters.

Werth, who platooned with Geoff Jenkins in right early season, won the job outright mid-season,  and posted a .273 average. If he can hit consistently again, the Phillies will do fine offensively.

Victorino is not likely to improve greatly on his .293 average along with his great defensive play in center field, but I noticed great leadership qualities emerging in the World Series.

Remember the “throw at my chest, not my head” motions against the Dodgers after being throw at his head? The following game, he hit a line drive game-tying home run to help the Phillies to a 7-5 victory and a commanding 3-1 lead in the NLCS.

Remember the grand slam against C.C. Sabathia in the opening round of the NLDS? He is developing a pattern as a big-play hero who is hated around the league. If Victorino can do that all season, which I think he can, it will bridge the time to Utley’s possible absence and a notorious slow start by Howard.

If Victorino makes the All-Star team, the Phillies are in for a monster offensive season.

Unless Utley is down for a significant amount of time or another big cog of the offense gets hurt or fails, the Phillies offense will capture their third straight National League East title.

New York may have something to say about that, but they have to prove it on the field.

Let’s play ball!