MLB Draft 2012: Why This Year's Draft Will Be as Unpredictable as Any

The 2012 MLB draft isn't likely to be the most exciting or memorable of its kind in baseball history, though it does have the potential to be the most perplexing.

The format will be largely the same, with the first round and supplemental rounds televised from the MLB Network Studios in Secaucus, NJ on June 4 and the rest done by conference call on the following two days. The fact that the draft has been shortened, from 50 rounds to 40, shouldn't take away too much of the intrigue.

The differences, though, lie in the rest of the details.

No Clear No. 1

The most obvious change from years past has nothing to do with format, but rather with available talent.

That is, the upcoming draft lacks a superstar or two at the top, as has been the case in years past. You won't find a Stephen Strasburg, a Bryce Harper or a Gerrit Cole, as you would've in each of the last three drafts.

Instead, the Houston Astros will be left to choose from a host of players who have the potential to be very good major leaguers but don't necessarily stand out as a No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick might be expected to.

Then again, the top pick has yielded its fair share of busts over the years (i.e. Matt Bush, Bryan Bullington, Kris Benson, Brien Taylor).

So, who knows? Maybe Mark Appel, Mike Zunino, Kevin Gausman or Byron Buxton will deliver.

Maybe not. 

Fewer Bonus Babies

While those four are practically guaranteed to go early in the first round, they won't have quite the same leverage to squeeze teams for fat bonuses as they would've in the past.

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, teams will be assigned a particular cap for bonus money that they're allowed to spend on picks through the first 10 rounds, depending on how many picks they have and where those picks fall in the order (per The Associated Press).

If teams spend more than their allotment, they risk facing financial penalties and/or the loss of future picks. If a player doesn't sign, the team in question loses that money, and if a player signs for less than the recommended slot, then that extra money can be redirected elsewhere.

And, after the 10th round, any amount over $100,000 spent on a single player's bonus will be subtracted from a team's bonus fund.

In other words, navigating the MLB draft will involve a bit more strategy than usual, which could very well affect who gets drafted when based on signability and expense.

Not that these weren't concerns before, but rather that they've now been codified into a standardized set of rules. 

Shorter Signing Period

That lack of big bonuses for later picks could push more high school kids into the college ranks and convince more juniors to stay for their senior seasons.

So, too, might the shortening of the signing period. Instead of having until mid-August to sign their draftees, teams will now to get their picks to put pen to paper by the middle of July.

That smaller window could lead to more intense negotiations and, again, more careful planning for teams ahead of time, so as not to select players whose agents (i.e. Scott Boras) are going to waste their time in negotiations.

Likewise, prospects who still have college eligibility may choose to exercise it rather than risk failing to hammer out deals with the clubs that draft them.

Of course, nobody can quite say that the draft will look like or how the new rules will shake up the status quo.

Which, in the end, is what makes the 2012 draft so intriguing for baseball nerds, scouts and front office personnel alike.

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