Tim Redding Hits the Jackpot, Odalis Perez Gets Jack: Why the Discrepancy?

Odaliz Perez had a pretty good season for the Nationals in 2009 and was in many ways the equal of fellow teammate Tim Redding.

No, he never reached the heights predicted by the baseball world when he was a top prospect for the Atlanta Braves, and no, he’s never come close to repeating his success with the Dodgers when he won 27 games with a 3.51 ERA in 2002 and 2003.

But Perez, who had signed a $850,000 contract in 2007, had hoped to parlay his 7-12, 4.34 season into a two-year deal worth-hopefully-$5 million or so.

His agent had made it clear that sure, Perez would consider coming back to Washington, but in the end he believed that his client would have many more profitable offers to choose from.

Those offers never materialized, however, and on Friday the Washington Nationals announced that Perez had been signed to a minor league deal with an invitation to the team’s major league camp.

This is quite a comedown for a pitcher that earned nearly $8 million dollars with the Kansas City Royals in 2007.

It isn’t unusual that pitchers like Perez-adequate but not above average-have found a limited market in this bad baseball economy.

What is strange is that while Perez had to settle for a minor league contract with a 102 loss team, Redding, his former teammate, was able to garner a one-year, $2.25 million dollar contract with the New York Mets, and was one of the first free agent signings of the offseason.

Put a different way, the Mets paid $225,000 per Redding win while the Nationals paid $47,500 for every Perez victory.

At 31, Perez is just one year older than Redding and has more than twice the number of major league wins as Redding.

Perez’ career ERA, at 4.34, is a more than a half-run lower than Redding’s 4.92.

And Perez is a lefty, always a hot-commodity for any major league pitching staff. Redding is a right-hander.

Though a 7-12 record isn’t particularly impressive, Perez really did pitch pretty well overall. Half of Perez’s 30 starts lasted into the sixth or seventh nning, the same as Redding.

Now take a look the number of runs given up per outing

        1   run:   Perez (5) – Redding (7)

        2   runs: Perez (10) – Redding (2)

        3   runs: Perez (8) – Redding (7)

        4   runs: Perez (2) – Redding (9)

        5   runs: Perez (1) – Redding (3)

        6   runs: Perez (2) – Redding (2)

        7   runs: Perez (0) – Redding (2)

The main difference lies in two-run outings (Perez eight more) and four-run outings (Redding seven more). In other words, Perez gave the Nationals more chances to win than did Redding.

Their other numbers are very similar as well. Perez gives up a few more hits per 9 innings than Redding (10.3 vs. 9.8) but walks fewer batters (3.1 vs. 3.7). Perez is also the better strikeout pitcher (6.7 vs. 5.9). Redding’s batting average against is a little better (.275 vs. .284) and his total number of base runners per inning (WHIP) is a little better as well (1.43 vs. 1.48).

Even their scouting reports are similar. TSN.ca says of Redding:

“He’s not big but has a live arm and a good fastball. He isn’t very durable.

He’s a decent mid-rotation starter.”

And Perez:

“His fastball reaches the low 90's and he adds a wicked curve that helps him rack up the strikeouts. He is somewhat crafty, as well. He has endurance issues.

He’s a decent mid-rotation lefty.”

They both have a good fastball and neither is durable. Each player is considered a “mid-rotation” starter.

And yet one of them gets a $2.25 million dollar contract with a contender and the other gets a minor-league contract with the worst team in baseball.

It looks like Jim Bowden, yet again, made the right baseball decision.

If Jordan Zimmermann, Shairon Martis, Colin Balester and the rest of the Nationals’ youngsters aren’t ready for the big time, Perez can step in and provide the team a solid back-of-the-rotation starter for another season.

And if the kids are ready, Perez could bring his experience to the team’s bullpen and dominate left-handers. In 2008, lefties his just .218 against him with a .293 OBP and .359 slugging percent.

At worst, Redding and Perez are equals on the pitching mound, which would give Perez a slight edge because he is left-handed. The only real difference in the two pitcher’s stats from last year would be that Redding made it to 10 wins, a magical number for a starting pitcher.

The Mets hope that Redding one day reaches his potential; he was once considered the top pitching prospect for the Houston Astros during a time when Roy Oswalt was his minor league teammate.

Perez, on the other hand, is a former All-Star.

Over his career, Perez has averaged 10-11, 4.46 (based on a full season). Redding has averaged 8-12, 4.92 over that period.

Maybe Redding looks like the better pitcher. Maybe Redding should be the better pitcher.

But past experience tells me that when the 2009 season draws to a close, Odalis Perez will have the better statistics.

You can bank on it.