2012 NBA Mock Draft: Which Studs Have the Biggest Upside?

Successfully selecting a prospect in the NBA draft—especially from the latter portions of the lottery on—often comes down to a gamble upside.

If a franchise plays their cards right and takes a player with a high ceiling that ends up panning out, it’s considered a home run.

Let’s take a look at our initial post-lottery drawing first round mock with an emphasis on incoming rookies with a bright future.

1. New Orleans Hornets (21-45): Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

The Hornets lucked out and ended up with the No. 1 pick and will subsequently select the most skilled prospect with the highest upside in Davis. He’s a huge piece of the rebuilding movement and will instantly give credibility to this franchise.

2. Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

Beal might not be the second-best prospect in the draft, but need-wise, this is a perfect fit.

He’s probably the best pure scorer in the class, and the unlucky Bobcats seriously need someone who can put the ball through the hoop from anywhere on the floor and create their own shot.

3. Washington Wizards (20-46): Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

With John Wall in a critical stage of his development, he needs an extremely athletic, hard-working, great finishing SF to run with. MKG doesn’t have the greatest offensive game outside of his ability around the rim, but he does everything else well—including his ability to play top-notch defense.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-45): Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

Cleveland would love to add an elite scoring swingman to their arsenal. The Cavaliers have not had one since LeBron James left the team, and Barnes will be a suitable replacement with Kyrie Irving running the show. 

5. Sacramento Kings (22-44): Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

There is too much value to pass up here. Robinson was the best collegiate player next to Davis this season and willed his team to a national championship appearance.

While his ceiling isn’t as high—he declared after his junior year—Robinson has the tools necessary to be an impactful NBA starter.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (via 22-44 New Jersey Nets): Andre Drummond, C, UConn

The Blazers are starved for size and will take a risk on the boom-or-bust UConn product. He’s got a massive frame that just looks like it can dominate most NBA bigs, but his production is questionable, and he failed to dominate the way he should have during his freshman season.

7. Golden State Warriors (23-43): Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor

A second year with the Bears didn’t do much to develop PJIII’s motor. He’s one of the most skilled players I’ve seen in a while, but he seems to disappear and not care for long stretches. Elite players all have a drive to dominate at all times, and it just isn’t there for this kid.

8. Toronto Raptors (23-43):  Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

The Raptors need a superstar that can score. Rivers has incredible upside, but has to learn to play off the ball better if he’s going to be a 2 in the pros.

He can eviscerate his defender off the dribble, get to the rim or pull up, but it will take some adjusting to the NBA game.

9. Detroit Pistons (25-41): Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

Greg Monroe is developing into a franchise center for Detroit, which means they need to add some support to their frontline.

Sullinger isn’t the most athletic player, but he knows how to get his buckets in the post, can rebound well and has the size to play defense against other 4s.

10. New Orleans Hornets (via 26-40 Minnesota Timberwolves): Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina

With New Orleans locking up Anthony Davis at No. 1, they have to find a facilitator to get him the ball and run the break. Marshall might not have the upside of other PGs in the class, but he’s a natural passer and great teammate. He would be the perfect sidekick for Davis.

11. Portland Trail Blazers (28-38):  Terrence Jones, F, Kentucky

Jones has an incredibly high ceiling, but he has to find a way to be more consistent. He’s able to play both forward positions and looks like a superstar some games but tends to get complacent and make head-scratching decisions.

If he connects with a great NBA coach and dedicates his time to improving and processing the game at a higher level, he’s going to be one of the top players from this class.

12. Milwaukee Bucks (31-35): Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina

Zeller has a limited ceiling, but he has size and the Bucks desperately need it after trading away Andrew Bogut.

13. Phoenix Suns (33-33): Damian Lillard, G, Weber State

Lillard has proved zilch as a facilitator and is more of a ball-hog that can score. If he can’t run the point in the NBA, he lacks the size to start at the 2 and would be best served as some sort of combo-guard coming off the bench to spark an offense.

14. Houston Rockets (34-32): Terrence Ross, G, Washington

Ross’ stock has been steadily rising and the Rockets love taking the best player on the board. The Huskies product is a natural replacement for Kevin Martin—who Houston will likely be moving in the offseason.

15. Philadelphia 76ers (35-31): John Henson, PF, North Carolina

With Elton Brand possibly out of the picture as early as this summer, the 76ers need a long and athletic 4 to replace him. Henson is a great fit and plays solid defense on top of capable offense.  

16. Houston Rockets (via 36-20 New York Knicks): Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

The Rockets haven’t had a suitable center since Yao Ming retired. Leonard certainly is no Yao, but they’ll try to develop him into a serviceable seven-footer that can protect the rim.

17. Dallas Mavericks (36-30):  Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

Miller wasn’t fully healthy during his freshman year with the Bears, as he was coming off of a high school ACL injury. If he shows confidence in his game during workouts and doesn’t appear bothered by the knee, he could go much higher than this because of his potential and scoring ability.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via 36-30 Utah Jazz): Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn

Lamb is likely going to slip on draft day because he’s too lackadaisical on the court. He’s extremely talented in all facets of the game, but he doesn’t step up and show his skills enough. The Timberwolves desperately need a 2 and will take a chance that he adjusts his attitude.

19. Orlando Magic (37-29): Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

Waiters can play both guard positions and slash to the hoop with the best of them. He’s got a decent mid-range game and could go much higher if he performs well during workouts and interviews.

20. Denver Nuggets (38-28): Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's

Harkless is extremely raw with a high ceiling. He’s immensely athletic, but has to work on his jumper so he can use it to his advantage more. If he pans out, this is a great pick.

21. Boston Celtics (39-27):  Royce White, PF, Iowa State

White has a major red flag because of his anxiety disorder. If it weren’t for that, and the way it has impacted his career thus far, he would be a top-10 pick. Boston needs size so badly that they’ll roll the dice.

22. Boston Celtics (via 40-26 Los Angeles Clippers): Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure

If Kevin Garnett decides to take his talents to another team to finish his career this summer, Nicholson is a great replacement. He’s got good size, a solid mid-range game and knows how to D up.

23. Atlanta Hawks (40-26): Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State

Moultrie is a bit of a strange prospect. He’s a long and athletic rebounder that has a dangerous shot. There are some character issues and he’s older than most prospects, but this should be a solid pick for the Hawks.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via 41-25 Los Angeles Lakers):  Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky

With the Cavs addressing their need for a pure scorer with the No. 4 pick, Lamb could fill their other big hole at the 2 later in the draft. He was a star during the 2012 NCAA tournament and is hoping to carry that momentum into the NBA.

25. Memphis Grizzlies (41-25): Tony Wroten, PG/SG, Washington

The Washington product has the most upside in the class because of his youth and size, but he’s got to get better at creating opportunities for others and seeing the court.

26. Indiana Pacers (42-24):  Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky

Teague doesn’t look like a traditional starting PG, but he’s able to push the break with the best of them. That’s a great asset for a young, athletic team like the Pacers.

27. Miami Heat (46-20): Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

Melo destroyed his stock by getting suspended for the NCAA tournament, but the Heat might be glad if he turns into a solid center. He’s got the size to instantly make an impact, considering that the franchise has Eddy Curry and Dexter Pittman on the roster.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19): Draymond Green, F, Michigan State

OKC needs a solid backup forward that can play behind Durant and Ibaka in certain situations. Green fits the bill and, on top of that, is a great locker room presence with a winning mentality.

29. Chicago Bulls (50-16): John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt 

Jenkins may have the best shooting ability in the class. He’s a natural backup to Rip Hamilton, who can’t seem to stay healthy.

30. Golden State Warriors (via 50-16 San Antonio Spurs): Jeffery Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

Taylor would go much earlier if it weren’t for the fact that he spent four years in college. He’s one of the best athletes in the class and has been developing his jumper for some time now.