22 Coaches Most Likely to Win First National Championship This Season

Of the 123 head college football coaches at the FBS level, only seven have ever won a national championship.

That equates to approximately six percent of the current coaches holding a coveted national title, and the other 94 percent holding nothing but hopes and dreams.

The roll of honor is fairly obvious; Bob Stoops (Oklahoma, 2000), Mack Brown (Texas, 2005), Urban Meyer (Florida, 2006 and 2008), Nick Saban (LSU, 2003 and Alabama, 2009 and 2011), Gene Chizik (Auburn, 2010) and Steve Spurrier (Florida, 1996).

So, who of the other 116 current college football coaches has the best chance of defying the odds and winning the biggest, cheesiest enchilada in all of sport in 2012?

The following slideshow takes a delightful journey across the landscape of college football and highlights 22 gridiron leaders who are most likely to achieve their first national title this coming season.

As a note, the Las Vegas odds to win the BCS National Championship included in this provocative presentation come via VegasInsider.com, the returning starter/experience ratings come via Phil Steele, and the recruiting stats com from Rivals.com’s comprehensive rankings.

Todd Graham, Arizona State

First-year head coach Todd Graham and Arizona State seem a big stretch for capturing a national title primarily because they lose so much talent from a year ago.

The Sun Devils return just 10 starters from their 2011 team, which earns them the dubious ranking of No. 116 nationally and No. 12 in the Pac-12.

On the upside, Arizona State has recruited well, and its current leadership was signed as the No. 30 ranked class from 2009 (technically the seniors) and the No. 35 class from 2010 (the juniors).

If USC was to stumble in the Pac-12 South (as Florida State did last year in the ACC Atlantic), then a window would definitely open for another squad.

Fear the Fork?

Vegas says that Todd Graham has 150/1 odds to pull off what would be one of the biggest shockers in the history of college football.

Bill Snyder, Kansas State

Bill Snyder’s name may look ridiculous on this list. But if you would have proclaimed K-State would win 10 games and finish No. 2 in the Big 12 before the 2011 season, you would have sounded just as delusional.

In the spirit of not counting the Wildcats out of any race, Snyder will have to take his 18 returning starters (No. 8 in the nation and No. 2 in the Big 12) and do what has never been done before in the history of the state of Kansas (win a national title in D-I football).

Vegas gives Snyder and K-State 150/1 odds to “do it to it.”

Dan Mullen, Mississippi State

The continuing conversation of how to gauge the fortunes of Mississippi State football would be made substantially easier if they didn’t have to play in the SEC West.

The Bulldogs have recruited well (though not Alabama and LSU well) but they return just 13 starters in 2012 from their 7-6 product a year ago.

Even though Vegas gives fourth-year head man Mullen 150/1 odds to win it all, it’s difficult to swallow that such a run is realistic for a team that hasn’t finished better then fourth in its division and is 9-15 in conference play since 2009.

Bill O’Brien, Penn State

As relieved as Bill O’Brien and Penn State will surely be to hit the field in 2012, you have to wonder how the Nittany Lions will perform given all the drama and heartache of the last seven months.

But this is still Penn State football that recruits well (the current seniors were brought in as the No. 24 group in 2009, and the juniors were signed as the No. 12 class in 2010) and should be stacked despite returning only 12 starters.

O’Brien hasn’t ever coached a football game as a head man, and he hasn’t been involved in a college game since he was the OC at Duke in 2006. But still, Vegas gives him 100/1 odds to lift the crystal pigskin.

Stranger things have happened.

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

Prior to winning the Big 12 in 2011, Oklahoma State hadn’t won a full-fledged conference title since winning a portion of the Big Eight title in 1976.

The message is clear, even with the loss of key offensive skill players; you can’t count out Mike Gundy and the Cowboys, who return 16 starters in 2012.

Gundy has got his program believing they can win it all, and Vegas says that the “other” school from Oklahoma has 100/1 odds to right the singular wrong from last season and go all the way.

Gary Pinkel, Missouri

Gary Pinkel has been at Missouri for 11 years and has yet to win even a conference championship, so why in the world would he be on a list of potential BCS title winners?

Well, the Tigers actually present a fairly compelling case for making something big out of what seems like a bleak forecast for 2012.

First, Mizzou returns 13 starters from a team that won eight games last season and did everything fairly efficiently with the exception of pass defense, a deficiency that seems less alarming with the move to the less pass-happy SEC.

Secondly, no one really expects Missouri to jump up and make waves in a division dominated by Georgia, Florida and South Carolina, so you’ve got the “where the hell did they come from” angle of attack.

But what if the Tigers can play with “big boys” (don’t forget they came from the Big 12, not the MWC or C-USA) and they manage to reel off a bunch of wins?

Pinkel’s best performance at Missouri came in 2007, when the Tigers went 12-2 and were two road losses to Oklahoma away from winning it all.

In 2012, Vegas gives him 100/1 odds to take a first-year SEC team all the way to the top of Mt. BCS.

Gary Patterson, TCU

In 2012 the Frogs get what they’ve longed for since the Big 12 left them behind in 1996, and it’s frankly hard to argue that they don’t deserve it.

Yes, TCU will finally have a clear path not only to the BCS, but the BCS title game in 2012. And they’ll have 13 returning starters to help them do the deed.

Gary Patterson has won at least one conference crown at each of the Frogs’ three league stops since 2000, and there is no reason to expect that TCU will drop off the planet just because it has to play Texas and Oklahoma.

The difference between Patterson’s TCU program and, say, Chris Petersen’s Boise State club is that the Horned Frogs have managed to recruit well despite their non-BCS conference affiliation.

Patterson has managed to haul in top-50 ranked classes over the last four years and walked away from 2011 with the No. 26-rated group and 2012 with the No. 37-ranked class.

Boise State, on the other hand, didn’t receive a single top 50 nod in recruiting over the same time period.

Patterson has lots of holes to fill this season, but this is a guy who has dealt with personnel turnover amazingly well—a task which will be more difficult in the Big 12 but still shouldn’t be insurmountable.

Vegas says Patterson and his Toads have 60/1 odds to win the BCS Championship this year, a vote of confidence that makes the eventual end of the “settling in” period seem scary.

Chris Petersen, Boise State

Speaking of Boise State, Vegas has given the Broncos exactly the same odds as TCU to win it all at 60/1.

Based solely on past performance (the Broncos haven’t dipped under the double-digit win bar since 2005), it would be impossible not to include Chris Petersen on this list. But other than recent history, Boise State looks like an unlikely major prize winner in 2012.

First, the Broncos still have no clear path to the actual title game; they have to win every single game and then hope that only one (or no) BCS conference teams go undefeated.

Secondly, Boise State has the least returning talent of any team in the country.

The Blue Turfers return a paltry six starters in 2012, which equates to three on offense, two on defense and one special-teamer—and remember, these guys do well, but they don’t recruit well.

Again, it would be criminal to leave Petersen off our list, but Boise State may have the least realistic chance of going all the way in 2012 of team in this star-studded revue.

Bret Bielema, Wisconsin

After three consecutive double-digit win seasons and back-to-back Big Ten titles, Bret Bielema’s name belongs here as much as any other.

Wisconsin’s chances to go to title town will be somewhat subdued in 2012 due to the fact that it will suffer a fairly healthy dose of personnel turnover.

Yes, Montee Ball and the bulk of the O-Line are back, but in total only 10 starters are back on campus from last season, and only six from a defense that ranked No. 13 nationally in scoring and No. 4 vs. the pass.

Sure, Bielema will no doubt fill the holes. But remember that Wisconsin hasn’t recruited as well (according to Rivals.com’s team rankings) as Ohio State, Penn State or even Illinois over the past four years.

Las Vegas gives Bielema and company 60/1 odds to win it all in 2012.

Will Muschamp, Florida

Realistically, at some point in time there will be no excuse for Will Muschamp not to be in a position to win it all at Florida.

And this all has to do with the extreme level of talent the Gators have stockpiled over the years, which puts them in the same elite league as LSU, Alabama, Texas, USC and Florida State.

Florida’s last four recruiting class rankings read like many a fan’s version of Fantasy Island…No. 11, No. 2, No. 12 and No. 3.

Yes, the Gators struggled offensively in 2011. And sure, 7-6 was nothing to get too excited about. But at the end of the day, this is a team that returns 18 starters to as stacked a team as you’re going to find on the BCS planet.

Don’t think Muschamp has a chance in hell of winning it all in his second season?

Vegas gives him 50/1 odds, which means, according to the money men, only 17 teams have a better chance to hit pay dirt.

Mark Dantonio, Michigan State

Isn’t it funny that while the national media continues to somewhat shun Sparty, Vegas gives them a 40/1 shot to win it all in 2012?

Mark Dantonio has managed back-to-back 11-win seasons at Michigan State and this season returns 14 starters from the team that was one play away from winning the Big Ten in 2011.

Most importantly, the Spartans bring back eight starters to a defense that ranked No. 10 nationally in scoring, No. 9 against the run and No. 11 vs. the pass.

What if Michigan State—not Michigan, not Nebraska and not Iowa—is the best team in the Legends Division in 2012?

Well, despite the fact that Michigan was called up to the 2011-12 version of the BCS, the Spartans (not the Wolverines) were best team in the division and the No. 2 team in the Big Ten.

A team’s inherent capabilities on the football field cannot and should not be gauged by how many fans will buy a game ticket and travel to New Orleans.

When will we ever accept the fact that Michigan State is for real and Mark Dantonio is one of the best coaches in the nation?

Bo Pelini, Nebraska

After going 9-3 overall and 5-3 in league play in their first season in the Big Ten, fifth-year head man Bo Pelini and Nebraska look primed to make a run.

The Huskers return an evenly split 16 starters in 2012. And though they haven’t recruited as well as Ohio State or Michigan, they’ve consistently hauled in top-25 rated classes over the last four years.

Pelini’s trickiest task this season may be surviving a Big Ten Legends division that is top heavy with Michigan and Michigan State, who also should be in position to win every ball game on their slates.

The last time Nebraska won the whole enchilada was in 1997, and the last time it won a conference title was in 1999. So can Pelini (who has thus far amassed three Big 12 North crowns) go all the way?

Vegas gives him 40/1 odds, which puts only 15 guys ahead of him.

Dabo Swinney, Clemson

Even the first ACC crown in 20 years and the first double-digit win total since Ken Hatfield led Clemson onto the field makes it hard to erase the ugliness that was the 2012 BCS Orange Bowl.

But as much as West Virginia’s 70-33 triumph doesn’t mean that it is the best team in the country coming into 2012, the beat down doesn’t mean that Clemson sucks and will suck moving forward.

Though it’s easy to forget given the shroud of defeat, Dabo Swinney has this program moving in the right direction.

Clemson’s last three recruiting classes were graded No. 19, No. 8 and No. 14, respectively. And though there is enough personnel loss coming into 2012 to subdue expectations, this is a team that should never be overlooked.

Vegas gives Swinney a 30/1 shot at leading the Tigers to the Promised Land for the first time since 1981, and if I were a betting woman, I’d say that those odds ought to be more in the neighborhood of 12/1 in 2013.

Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech

After 25 seasons in Blacksburg that have included a 209-98-2 overall record, seven conference titles and five divisional crowns, Frank Beamer is literally a coaching legend.

But, after all this time, can Beamer really—finally—take Virginia Tech to a national title?

Well, we know for sure that he can get the Hokies to the BCS because they’ve been there six times, a mark that only three programs can currently claim to have beaten. (USC has been seven times, Oklahoma has been eight times and Ohio State’s magic number is nine.)

What raises concern about the viability of a Virginia Tech national title run is what the Hokies have done after they’ve gotten to the BCS, which is by and large lose.

The Hokies are just 1-5 in BCS play, a number that includes a loss in the 1999-2000 National Championship Sugar Bowl to Florida State and a singular win over Cincinnati in the 2008-09 Orange Bowl.

Yes, Beamer can get them there, but then can they win?

It’s frankly difficult, based on history, to buy that.

The Hokies return 13 starters in 2012 from their 11-3 product from 2011, and though you can never count them out (Vegas gives them 30/1 odds), is the ACC crown truly as far as they can go?

Brady Hoke, Michigan

Even though Vegas gives Brady Hoke just 30/1 odds to win it all in his second season in Ann Arbor, I personally think Michigan has as a good a shot at making it all the way as does any team in the nation.

The Wolverines return an evenly split 16 starters from their solid 11-2 showing last season, and they’re led by a group of seniors (technically) that was recruited as the No. 8 class of 2009.

The two factors that could throw the magical stars out of alignment for the hearty Hoke and friends are their divisional alignment in the Big Ten and a few schedule caveats that could change everything.

First, Michigan will compete in a top-heavy Big Ten Legends division with Michigan State and Nebraska, who are also capable of winning it all.

Secondly, if perfection is the Wolverines' goal (and if they want to win the crystal ball, it has to be), there are two non-conference games early in the season that will make an early ruling on their championship aspirations.

First, you’ve got the blockbuster opener vs. Alabama in Arlington with a “winner take all” flavor, and then you’ve got the Week 4 trip to South Bend to play Notre Dame.

Unlike other programs that enjoy a “slow start” type schedule, Michigan will have more answers than questions by the time October rolls around.

Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia

Even Vegas is on board with the idea that the Mountaineers, regardless of their move to the Big 12, are really the team that whipped Clemson 70-33 in the Orange Bowl and not the team that lost to Louisville and Syracuse (49-21) last season.

Yes, the guys who work amidst the backdrop of spinning roulette wheels and Tom Jones melodies give second-year head coach Dana Holgorsen and West Virginia 30/1 odds to win not just the Big 12, but the BCS national championship.

Hmmmm…

West Virginia returns 16 starters from its 10-win team in 2011, and to achieve perfection (and a trip to title town) the Mountaineers will have to beat Texas in Austin, Texas Tech in Lubbock (nobody say a word), Oklahoma State in Stillwater and Kansas State, TCU and Oklahoma in Morgantown.

Anything is possible, seriously.

Brian Kelly, Notre Dame

Nobody should be surprised to see Brian Kelly’s name this far up the list because he’s the coach at Notre Dame, and the world loves the Irish.

Well, that is except for all the haters.

Vegas gives Brian Kelly 30/1 odds to win his first D-I football national title (he won two D-II crowns in 2002 and 2003 at Grand Valley State).

Notre Dame returns 15 starters this season from its inconsistent product in 2011, and though the Irish ought to be competitive (especially given their improved recruiting), it’s their schedule that is alarming.

Yes, the key to winning it all is winning every single game. And you can hate the Irish, but it’s hard not to respect their 2012 slate of opponents.

At Michigan State, vs. Michigan, vs. Miami (Fla.) at Soldier Field, vs. Stanford, at Oklahoma, at USC.

Given this season sampler, it’s frankly hard to argue that 30/1 odds aren’t a little too generous.

John L. Smith, Arkansas

Prior to Bobby Petrino’s two-wheeled pocket-rocket debacle, Vegas gave the Razorbacks 15/1 odds to win it all in 2012.

This begs the question that will surround Arkansas football all season: What effect will Petrino’s exit and John L. Smith’s recall have on the fortunes of Razorback football?

Yes, what are the new odds for Smith, not Petrino, to raise the crystal pigskin aloft in January of 2013?

Well, the Pigskin Pigs return 15 starters this season from a team that needs to improve on a No. 73 national ranking in rush defense (you’ve got to be ranked in the Top 15 nationally to win the SEC) and a No. 81 ranking in rushing offense (bring on a healthy Knile Davis).

John L. Smith is 79-65 all-time as a head college football coach, and if he can parlay this record into a national title, it will be among the most bizarre and intriguing storylines in the history of the game.

What’s concerning is Smith’s 4-11 record in postseason play, a number that includes a 3-5 mark in the D-I AA (FCS) playoffs at Idaho and a 1-6 record in bowl play at Utah State, Louisville and Michigan State.

More reason for Razorback fans to lose sleep is the fact that only one of Smith’s teams have ever finished the season ranked, the 2001 Louisville Cardinals who went 11-2, won the C-USA and were ranked No. 16 in the final AP poll.

Jimbo Fisher, Florida State

After a disappointing 9-4 finish in 2011, Jimbo Fisher and his Seminoles look as primed as any team in the nation to win it all.

Not only does Florida State have the returning talent and a stocked cupboard of highly-ranked recruits, (the No. 7 class from 2009, the No. 10 group from 2010, the No. 2 class of 2011 and the No. 6 group from this year), but it has a schedule that cooperates beautifully.

Yes, talent and experience is one thing, but a fairly “do-able” slate is another.

Other than the traditional closer with Florida (which is in Tallahassee), non-conference games are against two FCS squads and USF from the Big East (yes, they’re good, but no, they’re not Oklahoma).

The ‘Noles will have to travel to Virginia Tech and Miami, but Clemson is a home game and North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech aren’t on the schedule at all.

Though the ACC is no picnic, Jimbo Fisher may have the clearest road to the BCS title of any other coach in the preseason Top 10.

What does Vegas say?

Well, the money men give 12/1 odds that Fisher and FSU win it all for the first time since 1999.

Mark Richt, Georgia

After being on the verge of being canned due to a 6-7 finish in 2010 and a 0-2 start to 2011, Mark Richt is in a position to have Georgia fans realistically dreaming of their first national title since 1980.

The Bulldogs return 15 starters from last season, and, most importantly, they bring back nine from a defensive unit that ranked No. 11 nationally against the run and No. 10 vs. the pass.

Georgia’s schedule is relatively cooperative with the traditional clash with in-state rival Georgia Tech as the only non-conference challenge to speak of and Ole Miss and Auburn the only foes from the SEC West.

If Georgia can beat Florida, South Carolina, Auburn and Missouri on the road and take care of business vs. Tennessee, expect to see them in the SEC title game and perhaps representing the conference in yet another BCS title game.

Vegas gives Richt 12/1 odds to pick up his first ever national championship.

Chip Kelly, Oregon

Chip Kelly has won the Pac-12 title each of the three years he’s been the head coach at Oregon.

Allow that to sink in for just a moment; he’s won three consecutive conference championships in one of the most competitive BCS leagues in college football.

Overall, Kelly is 34-6 thus far at Oregon and a mind-numbing 25-2 in Pac-12 play.

Kelly deserves to be on this list and seems destined to win a national title, either with the Ducks or whoever else gets lucky enough to have him on their sidelines.

Oregon returns a somewhat low 13 starters in 2012, and Vegas’ 8/1 championship odds were posted before QB Darron Thomas declared for the NFL draft.

Regardless of how you stack it, Kelly has gotten it done in a big way over the past three years (in one of the most fluid personnel situations in sport), and there is no reason to expect the Ducks won’t be in back in the mix in 2012.

Lane Kiffin, USC

Well folks, we’re finally about to find out how good a football coach Lane Kiffin really is.

With the pressure-relieving curtain of postseason ineligibility lifted and all the numbers lining up, USC fans will expect to win titles…right now.

Kiffin returns a whopping 17 starters from the 10-win team last season, and he’s got a team built on the mighty beams of the No. 4, No. 1, No. 4 and No. 8 ranked recruiting classes from the past four years.

Vegas says Kiffin has 5/1 odds to prove everybody wrong and win it all, which is the same number bestowed on Alabama and only one tick under LSU, who has 4/1 odds of ordering up the big enchilada.

The stat of the preseason regarding the Men of Troy is their No. 102 national ranking in pass defense from last season, a number which absolutely must be improved upon if they are “for real” for real.