The EYE Statistic: What Is It?

In an article I recently wrote about Jack Cust, I received a few comments about a statistic I used to prop up Cust’s astronomically high strikeout total of 164—in only 507 plate appearances no less. The statistic is called EYE, for want of a better term. I think I invented it, but it is not terribly complicated, so there may be scores of us out there who think we have invented it.

The statistic (walks/walks+strikeouts) is a simple ratio that allows for the opportunity to look at strikeouts in concert with walks instead of looking at them in a vacuum, which is dangerous. If my favorite player were to have an EYE number beneath .300, I would begin to fret. It is not however, life threatening—see Alfonso Soriano.

I used to get enraged when my local paper’s regular baseball columnist, John Shea, would decry the fact that power hitters like Sammy Sosa and Jim Thome struck out so much, using the high numbers as statistics that could keep one or both out of the Hall of Fame. Jim Thome has a .409 career OBP, who cares how he makes his outs?

Personally, I do not like strikeouts, they are graceless and often dramatic let downs. They are sometimes humorous and often times disappointing. Strikeouts seem to personify the failure of a batsman. One must however, come to the realistic conclusion that strikeouts are usually a side effect of power, and only the greatest hitters are immune. And in this era, that would be Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, and Vladimir Guerrero.

But, that is not to excuse striking out; a hitter must balance, or offset, his strikeouts with walks. Otherwise he is not just impatient, but inconsistent, not unlike a hard throwing pitcher who is prone to fits of wildness. If statisticians measure the ratio of walks to strikeouts among pitchers, why not hitters?

Power must also be looked at through this prism. It cannot be measured purely in home runs, power has to also be measured in a translatable form of respect that leads to a high OPS, otherwise, you have Dave Kingman—a guy who hit 37 home runs in 1976, but carried a laughable OBP of .286. EYE is a statistic that is most valuable in separating the Cust’s from the Kingman’s, as it were.

A quick examination of the 2007 season will elucidate some parameters. Out of the top ten in OPS among all the regular hitters (at least 490 plate appearances, 400 for catchers) last season, the one with the lowest EYE was Ryan Braun (.206, 29 BB, 112 K). This of course proves that one could dip below .300—well below, obviously—and still put together a great year. It is rare though, and Braun had what I would call a phenomenal and slightly freakish year.

It is true, .300 is not a hard and fast Mendoza line, players can get past going below it. But there is a ceiling and a pretty substantial drop off also. This is a list of the top five players in each league with EYE numbers below .300 with their league rank (by my well-thought out and quantitative calculation) in parentheses next to them.

AL: Curtis Granderson (7), .269, BJ Upton (12), .297, Torri Hunter (22), .284, Carl Crawford (27), .222, Adrian Beltre (40), .268.

NL: Ryan Braun (9), .206, Aaron Rowand (19), .283, Alfonso Soriano (20), .193, Corey Hart (25), .267, Brandon Phillips (34), .232.

Obviously one can have a low EYE and still have fairly good years, and even elite years—Granderson and Braun. Still though, a batter puts himself at a distinct disadvantage by not reigning in his strikeouts, or offsetting them with modicum patience.