Fantasy Baseball: 7 Hitters Who Will Heat Up After Crummy Starts to the Season
If you've ever drafted Mark Teixeira, then you know how enraging the month of April and his career .239 average during those 30 days can be.
He's the industry poster boy for slow-starting, second-half studs. It only takes playing a season or two to figure out it's best to let someone else draft the spring slumper and trade for him just before all of those hot summer nights. New York's switch-hitting power first baseman produces a career triple-slash line of .294/.381/.557 after the All-Star break.
Teixeira is once again off to his annual slow start. Luckily for fantasy owners, summer has a habit of following spring and that means warmer weather. For whatever reason, that means Teixeira's bat heats up too.
Don't look now but it's happening again. Tex just ripped off a four-game streak of multi-hit games ending Monday during which he launched four homers. If you were planning on buying low, then you better act fast. His old age created some doubt as to whether he would snap into form this season, but now Teixeira looks to be right on schedule for raking duty.
Here are some other studs ready to make an entrance after a late arrival.
Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
1 of 6This may be cherry picking a little bit because: a) he's Albert Pujols and b) he too has already started heating up.
After reaching the point where sports fans were receiving daily updates on what the Angels' monstrous investment didn't do in each game, "The Machine" finally poked one over the wall on May 6. He then proceeded to launch seven more over a 14-game span including a five-homers-in-eight-games tear.
Pujols is still included here, however, because not everyone in Fantasyland is convinced yet. Well, for those who still harbor concerns about a lack of walks, I'd say all the recent trotting he's doing around the basepaths is quite enough for me. It's hard to draw a free pass when you're busy crushing pitches 410 feet over a wall. How's that for walking?
Paying any 32-year-old $240 million over 10 years is absurd. Everyone, humans and machines alike, will break down at some point. But while Father Time is a force to be reckoned with, the difference between 31 and 32 is not 90 points in batting average or 135 points in on-base percentage.
I won't pretend to sell Sir Albert as a tradition late bloomer—we all know he usually rakes all season—but his career stat splits do show an upward trend from month to month. His slash lines already seem to be correcting themselves at a rapid pace. They may not come all the way back, but if you can still find a naive opponent willing to let you get in now at any kind of a discount then it will be well worth your investment.
Market Value*
- One elite pitcher (anyone but Verlander or Kershaw) -or-
- Multiple good pitchers (Jordan Zimmermann's range) -or-
- One overachieving elite hitter (Adam Jones, maybe higher) -or-
- Two good hitters (Andre Ethier's range) -or-
- Three waiver wire flames (Bryan LaHair, etc.).
*"Market Value" reflects what you should expect to give up in a trade, not what he is actually worth in a 10-12 team non-keeper league with standard scoring.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox
2 of 6Boston was good to Adrian Gonzalez during his first year in Beantown.
He took one look at the Green Monster in left field and started bouncing off the wall like a 2-year-old. It helped raise his batting average from .298 in 2010 (his highest during a five-year stay in San Diego) to .338 in 2011. While Gonzalez's power did dip down to produce only 27 taters after hitting at least 30 in his last four years in the Padre's spacious Petco Park, the powerful Red Sox lineup kicked his counting stats up to 108 runs and 117 RBI (compared to 87 and 101 in his last year as a Padre).
So Gonzalez's four-homer, .268/.327/.412 start to 2012 probably has fantasy owners who eagerly drafted him in the first round saying, "Yo Adrian, what gives?"
Savvy managers, however, will remember that Gonzalez only made one round trip in April last year. While he quickly turned in a breakout May in 2011 as June of 2012 quickly arrives with no sign of a repeat, those same savvy managers will also note that his breakout typically doesn't come until June anyway. His monthly splits aren't nearly as stark as the more renowned duo of slow starters, Tex and Tulo, but history does show Gonzalez to be a late arrival (career 311/.398/.552 June, career .302/.387/.516 post All-Star break).
With depleted early power numbers and a recent slump slashing his hitting ratios, there may not be a better chance to snag this elite infielder from an impatient owner sick of waiting for their not-so-fashionably late star to show up.
Market Value
(Same as Pujols)
- One elite pitcher (anyone but Verlander or Kershaw) -or-
- Multiple good pitchers (Jordan Zimmermann's range) -or-
- One overachieving elite hitter (Adam Jones, maybe higher) -or-
- Two good hitters (Andre Ethier's range) -or-
- Three waiver wire flames (Bryan LaHair, etc.)
*"Market Value" reflects what you should expect to give up in a trade, not what he is actually worth in a 10-12 team non-keeper league with standard scoring.
Jose Reyes, SS, Miami Marlins
3 of 6Jose, can you see?
That's what fantasy owners were probably thinking before the start of every game as Jose Reyes struggled to a .205/.276/.321 line in April. A current 10-game hitting streak, however, has the speedy short stop on the rise.
His career monthly splits remain pretty even keeled over the course of the season but June, July and August do stand out as his best. The glittery new Sun Life Stadium has proven to favor pitchers but that shouldn't hurt Reyes too much. As a gap hitter with speed he can cash in on a spacious outfield for triples. It's not like you drafted him to hit home runs.
Speed never slumps and Reyes' 15 steals this season is a testament to that. With plenty of strong hitters behind him in the order, the runs and even RBI numbers will rise as his slash line corrects itself. There seem to be more questions still floating around Reyes than any other struggling stud, so use that to your advantage and swing him over to your squad now.
Market Value*
- One elite pitcher (Matt Cain's range) -or-
- Multiple good pitchers (Jordan Zimmermann's range) -or-
- One good hitter (Andre Ethier's range but hopefully lower) -or-
- Three waiver wire flames (Bryan LaHair, etc.)
*"Market Value" reflects what you should expect to give up in a trade, not what he is actually worth in a 10-12 team non-keeper league with standard scoring.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
4 of 6Raise your hands if you are feeling a little duped as an Eric Hosmer owner.
Perhaps this preseason you watched a gushing video like this or read a rave review like this. The next Joey Votto? Everything after his two home runs in the season's first three games has felt like the next Kansas City Royals player no one has ever heard of.
After endorsing three proven studs to bounce back from sluggish starts I will go a little bolder and say that this sophomore slump will end soon too. I know he's graded out as a future super star by nearly every scout, but for every Mike Trout there is a Billy Beane. Hosmer will be somewhere in between. There's not a decade's worth of career stats to go on here so any projection you read on this kid is mostly guesswork.
But even after being personally burned by Hosmer's .172/.238/.311 start, I still believe the scouts. His 19-homer rookie season with an average just south of .300 showed for all to see that he can hit major-league pitching over the long haul. A power/average combo is always coveted, but when you add in a touch of speed too—well that's why we ended up with all the preseason drooling this spring.
Of late the Royal son has raised his average over .200 and snapped a 26-game homerless streak. He's far from back and that's certainly no promise of even a late arrival. At the very least, however, it's a start. He's kept a low strikeout rate throughout so you don't have to worry about a Rickie Weeks situation here.
Hosmer may not be the best buy-low candidate but his plummeting asking price has to at least perk your interest. He's even being dropped in some leagues. If you can get him as a throw in or throw away, do it without hesitation because the upside here is enormous. Don't pay too much, though, and make sure you have an open bench slot and plenty more than a pinch of patience.
Market Value*
- One good pitcher (Jon Lester's range) -or-
- One decent hitter (Aramis Ramirez's range) -or-
- Two waiver wire flames (Bryan LaHair, etc.)
*"Market Value" reflects what you should expect to give up in a trade, not what he is actually worth in a 10-12 team non-keeper league with standard scoring.
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles
5 of 6Matt Wieters is the post-hype version of Hosmer. When he came up, he was billed as the next Mark Teixeira. Perhaps that explains the slow start to his season, and really his whole career.
But this situation is not like the others already mentioned. Wieters actually started the season in breakout fashion, belting his seventh home run by May 2 while touting a .303/.391/.618 slash line. Just when he had Fantasyland proclaiming his arrival; however, it all turned sour rather quickly. Those inflated ratios melted back to a distasteful line of .231/.322/.438. It's OK, Matt, we're all a little frustrated.
But just a month ago we were a colt and a few palm branches short of matching Jesus' passover entrance into Jerusalem, so let's not repeat the mistake of reaching for the nails and thorns too quickly now. Wieters probably won't give us a repeat of May anytime soon but the power everyone has been waiting for is real. Just because it vanished temporarily doesn't make it a mirage.
Unfortunately for those of you in the buy-low market, Wieters owners probably realize they missed their chance to sell high. Now they will likely opt to just sit on their commodity and hope for some more April showers—or at least those promised, late-blooming May flowers—rather than ship him off at discount.
If you're looking for a steal (in value or on the basepaths), look elsewhere. If you think paying full price is still a bargain, however, have at it because this slump won't last long and it may be your only chance to grab a player that could still end up as the year's best fantasy catcher.
Market Value*
- One elite pitcher (Matt Cain's range) -or-
- Multiple good pitchers (Jordan Zimmermann's range) -or-
- One good hitter (Ben Zobrist's range but hopefully more like Matt Joyce) -or-
- Three waiver wire flames (Bryan LaHair, etc.)
*"Market Value" reflects what you should expect to give up in a trade, not what he is actually worth in a 10-12 team non-keeper league with standard scoring.
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays
6 of 6Speaking of Ben Zobrist, hopefully you knew what you were getting into when you drafted him.
He has always been one of the streakiest players in fantasy, especially last year. A dismal .183/.266/.394 start to 2011 saw him appearing on many waiver wires before four home runs in five games (capped by two dingers, five runs, seven hits and 10 RBI in a doubleheader against Minnesota) quickly injected life back into his value.
This is just what we've come to expect from Zobrist. The round trips come in bunches and then they don't come at all for weeks or even months. It's quite the roller coaster ride, so buckle up. Just don't let your frustration level allow you to consider selling him for cheap, or even kicking him to the curb.
One reason for concern in 2012, however, is that the switch hitter has suffered from a season-long slump lasting more than two months now. With six homers he has sprinkled a few rays of hope here and there, but so far no upswing has stuck. Only twice has he seen his average rise above .260 this season.
Looking at Zobrist's end-of-the-season totals erases any evidence of his frequent mood swings at the plate and offers assurance to stay the course. But fantasy owners now have to be wondering if 2012 will be more like his disappointing 2010 rather than his breakout 2009 - or even 2011, which split the difference.
I still say a sustained upswing is coming. Any streak, good or bad, tends to be pretty sharp with Zobrist, so I want him on my roster when it does happen. His power/speed combo along with his multiple-position eligibility make him quite the asset when producing like he can. But even fantasy owners keenly aware of his volatility have to be close to losing patience by now, so it's time to start kicking the tires.
Market Value*
- One good pitcher (Jordan Zimmermann's range) -or-
- One decent hitter (Matt Joyce's range) -or-
- Two waiver wire flames (Bryan LaHair, etc.)
*"Market Value" reflects what you should expect to give up in a trade, not what he is actually worth in a 10-12 team non-keeper league with standard scoring.

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