Five Questions for the Boston Red Sox in 2009

1. Will the older sluggers heal?

The Red Sox's pursuit of Mark Teixeira may have created a battle for playing time, but it's not at all clear that the Red Sox' options at first, third, and designated hitter are going to be healthy and productive.

David Ortiz is coming off of his worst season since joining the Red Sox, after a wrist injury limited him to 109 games, 23 homers, and an OPS of .877. Mike Lowell's torn labrum in his hip may prevent him from playing plus defense, a large contribution to his overall value.

Boston's backups to play first base if Kevin Youkilis moves to third are Mark Kotsay (back surgery this month) and Rocco Baldelli (fatigue syndrome from channelopathy). The Red Sox starting lineup is quite potent, but if any of the injury suspects (including J.D. Drew, who appears to be made of balsa wood) are unable to play, Boston will have to lean heavily on their pitching.

2. Has Jon Lester arrived for good?

After two disappointing regular seasons where he oozed of potential but seemed to suffer from a crippling fear of the strike zone, Jon Lester discovered his control in 2008. He lowered his walks per nine innings to 2.82 (after two seasons of mid 4s), and his strikeout rate climbed from 1.61 per nine to 2.30.

With Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and a repeat performance from Lester, the Sox will have one of the deepest rotations in the American League this season. If Lester struggles, Boston will have to rely on young, unproven arms such as Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Justin Masterson. Last time an American League East perennial contender attempted this strategy, the Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in over a decade.

3. Who's fielding short?

Despite a lack of flash and a reported lack of range, Jed Lowrie wowed sabermetricians last year with stellar defense in limited duty for Boston. The switch-hitter posted average offensive numbers (OBP .339, SLG .400) in over three hundred plate appearances, filling in at short and third.

While the bat won't play at third, it certainly appears to be the Sox' best option at shortstop. Julio Lugo becomes a $9 million replacement player, continuing Boston's expensive and unproductive carousel of veteran shortstops. Lugo is spouting the usual clichés about adding muscle and reporting to camp in the best shape of his life, so there may be a competition in spring training for the spot.

Epstein and Terry Francona will give Lowrie the job unless they have reason to believe Lugo has turned back the clock three or four years.

4. Did the competition leapfrog the Sox?

At first glance, it would appear so. Tampa upgraded their least productive positions, right field and DH, with a Matt Joyce/Gape Kapler platoon and Pat "the Bat" Burrell. Tampa will return excellent young pitching in both their rotation and bullpen, and the lineup that gave baseball one of history's most stunning single-season turnarounds in defensive efficiency is back.

Developments in the Bronx also do not bode well for the BoSox. The Yankees were the only team seemingly unaffected by recent economic turmoil, splurging on C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett.

While this threesome represents an impressive offseason haul, the Yankees shouldn’t start making room in the trophy case just yet. Jorge Posada may not be able to catch full-time after his shoulder surgery, the Yankee defense looks to be far below average (although Mark Teixeira should help), and questions remain about who will roam center field. The Yankees should be slight favorites in the AL East, but their margin is far from prohibitive.

5. Will Dr. Epstein's injury crop bear fruit?

After being spurned by Teixeira (apparently driven by his wife’s dislike of the shopping options on Boston’s posh Newbury Street?), Theo Epstein did not splurge on any big-ticket free agents. The Sox did, however, take a number of intriguing injury fliers on Rocco Baldelli, John Smoltz, and Brad Penny.

The Woonsocket Rocket should prove useful in right, center, and perhaps even first base if team doctors can determine a proper strategy for dealing with Baldelli’s newly re-diagnosed fatigue issues.

Smoltz is recovering from surgery, and appears hell-bent on proving doubters of his shoulder and his age wrong. He could see time as either a starter or a setup man depending on the state of his shoulder. Brad Penny is likely to pitch more innings than Smoltz, but his performance ceiling is lower.

These players, and a rehabilitated Takashi Saito, combined to earn about as much money as one healthy "big star" would have received on the open market (at least pre-economic collapse). If even two of them pan out, Epstein will have to be happy with the results.