Anthony Davis: How Naismith Winner Would Compare to No. 1 Picks of Past 10 Years

Anthony Davis is the consensus choice for No. 1 pick in the NBA draft on June 28, but he isn't as good as some of the players recently taken with the top overall pick. Having the No. 1 pick in the draft is like the beginning of Charles Dickens' Tale of Two Cities:

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" 

Your team is in this position because they were terrible (unless it's from a trade of course), but it represents the ultimate hope because you'll have your pick at the best player available. That said—some years are stronger than others.

While the 2012 draft class is fairly deep, in my opinion there isn't a player that jumps out to me as a can't-miss superstar. In fact, I don't even believe that Davis is the prospect that has the most upside or highest superstar potential.

For me that player is UConn's Andre Drummond. I'm certainly in the minority there, so as it stands Davis will almost certainly be the selection. I project Davis will be a success in the NBA, but not a superstar.

I would classify him as: solid, but not spectacular.

If he finds the right team, he can be an important piece of a winning formula. Over the past 10 years we've seen almost every type of No. 1 pick: the bust, the truth, the really good and the solid, but not spectacular.

Here is how I would classify each of the past 10 No. 1 picks, and a explanation of the classifications.

The Truth Group—Players You Can Build A Franchise Around

LeBron James—2003

James is a three-time MVP, and the best player on the planet. He affects a game in more ways than any other player in the game. He's the most physically-gifted basketball player ever, and if he could just get the ring-thing taken care of we can officially include him in the G.O.A.T conversations.

Dwight Howard—2004

The game's best rebounder, a premier shot-blocker and the NBA's overall best big man. He may have tarnished his public perception over the past year, but he is one of the most dominant players in the game today.

Derrick Rose—2008

He became the youngest NBA MVP in the 2010-2011 season, and he is one of the five best players in the league. He has unmatched explosiveness, but the truest testament to his worth was proven in the current playoffs.

Without him his team couldn't beat an eighth-seeded Philadelphia 76ers team. If Rose doesn't get hurt in Game 1 of that series I believe the Bulls sweep the Sixers.

The Really Good Group—Players That Aren't Quite Elite, But They Are Still Building Blocks

Blake Griffin—2009 

Blake is plenty spectacular, and he's also very productive, but he still has some holes in his game. He needs a more dependable jump shot, and a more consistent effort on defense to join the Truth Group.

John Wall—2010

Wall is a blur with the ball, and one of the only point guards in Rose's category of quickness. He has good vision and great size, but he can't shoot a Skittle in the ocean most nights, and that's what keeps him from the Truth Group.

Kyrie Irving—2011

Irving had a great rookie season, winning the Rookie of the Year award and averaging 18 points and five assists per game. The only thing keeping Irving from the Truth Group may be experience.

I need to see one or two more years before I can make a final assessment of him, but if he continues his current pace he's on the way up.

The Solid, But Not Spectacular—Good Players That Are Consistent Contributors, But Not Stars

(This is where Anthony Davis falls in my opinion)

Yao Ming—2002

The only reason Yao isn't higher is because of injuries, and because of those and his early retirement, I almost called him a bust, but you can't ignore his production and accomplishments in his eight-year career.

He averaged 19 points and nine rebounds per game, and that's not too shabby.

Andrew Bogut—2005

Bogut is one of the NBA's best big men when he's healthy, the problem is that lately he rarely is. When he's on the floor he rebounds, scores and blocks shots, but he isn't a dominant player. Because of that and his injuries he's solid, but not spectacular.

Andrea Bargnani—2006

Bargnani is a solid scorer, and a bit underrated because he plays in Toronto, but he isn't a dominant player. He hasn't lead the Raptors to any notable success (only two postseasons, both first-round exits) and he's fairly one-dimensional.

The Bust Group—Players That Have Been Complete Flame-Outs, Sorry Greg 

Greg Oden—2007

The bust group over the past 10 years only includes one man, and that's Oden. This is all about injuries; I believe if Oden were healthy he'd be one of the best defensive centers in the league, and a decent offensive player, but he isn't healthy and there are serious questions if he'll ever be healthy again.

It's actually kind of sad, and I certainly root for him, but he's a poster-child for a busted No. 1 overall pick.

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