NBA Lottery Odds 2012: Assessing Struggling Teams' Chances to Get No. 1 Pick
It seems like it would be too cruel a twist of fate for the Bobcats to fail to get the top pick in this year's NBA draft, but recent odds are, they won't.
Whoever wins this year's lottery, of course, will get the distinguished opportunity to draft Anthony Davis, who destroyed the rest of the NCAA in 2011-12 in his quest for a national title. The Bobcats could use him more than anyone, but in case they don't win the lottery, there are three other struggling teams who would do anything for the chance to draft this year's Naismith Award winner.
Here's a look at the chances this year's worst teams have of landing the top pick, and thus, the superstar.
Charlotte Bobcats
The Bobcats went a dismal 7-59 last season, ranking among the worst teams in NBA history. By all accounts, they deserve the top pick more than anyone, based on their epic futility.
But bad news for them: No team with the worst record in the NBA has won the lottery since 2004, when the Magic selected Dwight Howard with the No. 1 overall pick.
As it stands, the Bobcats have a 25 percent chance of winning—higher than anyone else—and they can't pick lower than fourth, so you have to figure they'll get either Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal or Thomas Robinson.
And more good news: Even the Magic couldn't win an NBA title with Howard. So the top pick and a future All-Star don't necessarily guarantee a championship.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have the next-best chance of winning the lottery behind the Bobcats at 19.9 percent. If everything goes as expected, they'll pick second and take Gilchrist—but they would certainly love the opportunity to get a player like Davis.
The Wizards last won the lottery in 2001 and made a terrible decision in retrospect, selecting Kwame Brown rather than some of the other stars on the board that year, including Tyson Chandler and Pau Gasol. Just for the record, Brown has averaged 6.8 points and 5.6 rebounds in his career.
Ever since, they've been desperate to make up for that decision, and taking Davis with the top pick would accomplish that and could drastically alter this franchise's future.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Though Cleveland has just a 13.8 percent chance of winning the lottery, it's scary to think about what would happen to them if they somehow escaped with the top pick. This is a team that is one or two players away from being able to reassert itself as a playoff contender, and a player like Davis could easily get them there.
Davis could even get this team back to where it was before LeBron James left.
It's unlikely the Cavs will win the lottery for the second consecutive year—they won with a 19.9 percent chance in 2011 and took Kyrie Irving, who was recently named the NBA Rookie of the Year—but we all know Davis has to be rooting for this team to win it.
New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets have just about as good a shot of winning the lottery as the Cavs do, with a 13.7 percent chance. It's probably not going to happen and, as it stands, the Hornets are most likely preparing to pick fourth and select either Thomas Robinson or Andre Drummond.
Needless to say, Davis would be a huge upgrade over either of them. Robinson was good for Kansas, but he didn't have what it took to bring his team a national title. With Davis anchoring the frontcourt in New Orleans, a team that finished third-to-last in the league might actually have a shot at competing again. Davis, after all, has a way of turning teams into champions.





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