How Good Is the New York Mets' 2009 Rotation?

With Spring Training right around the corner (could have fooled me as it is "sizzling" 15 degrees where I sit writing this), I think now is as good of a time as any to take a look at the 2009 Mets rotation.

2008 saw the NL East as as a two-team division with the Phillies being the cream of the crop. After all, they're the team with the ring. The offseason saw the NL "Beast" get stronger however, as the Braves spent money on pitchers Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami, and the Nat's added Met killers Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen from the Marlins.

This division will prove to be quite a test for all five teams, and I expect pitching to once again be the key.

So let’s get down to it.

Johan Santana

Many people feel the Mets pitching begins and ends with one man—Johan Santana.

Santana came to the Mets with high expectations and a huge contract. He came in and very much lived up to these expectations.

He led the staff in all of the major categories—IP,K’s, ERA—and he gave one of the most brilliant performances I have ever seen in Game No. 161 of the 2008 season against the Marlins.

With the season on the line, Santana went nine innings, gave up just three hits and fanned nine in a complete-game shutout. He managed all of this on a bad knee that eventually required surgery.

In connection, Santana is coming off a minor knee procedure and has yet to throw this offseason, which of course, is a minor concern. Barring unforeseen complications, however, there is no reason to expect anything less than repeat of last year from Santana.

Fearless Prediction—21-7, 3.30 ERA, 222 innings, 186 hits, 50 walks and 219 Ks.

The Mets rotation, meanwhile is becoming a question mark, but that's an issue I disagree with.

Look at the Phillies. They have one ace in Cole Hamels, but are we sure second-half Brett Myers will return this year? Is Jamie Moyer going to be 2008 Moyer or the 2007 Moyer who posted a 5.01 era?

I don’t know who is “ranked” where in the Mets rotation, but for my purposes I will say the Mets rotation will be Santana, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey and Garcia in that order.

John Maine

In 2007, he looked to be one of the top-25 best young pitchers in the game, winning 15 games with a sub-4.00 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27.

Then, 2008 rolled around and Maine seemed to regress. Pitches that were hard to hit in 2007 were suddenly being fouled off causing Maine’s pitch count to skyrocket , which sunk his innings per start, putting extra pressure on the Mets' bullpen.

Maine left one start with what was deemed a “cramp” and later left a start and was shut down with a bone spur in his right shoulder. Maine later revealed that this had bothered him all season.

Fearless prediction—Did Maine’s injury cause him to lose a tick on his fastball last year and thus get hit around? Or did the league catch up on him and was this the real John Maine, and not the 2007 version? I think it will prove to be a combination of both of these options.

2009 John Mainez—16-11, 3.95 ERA, 195 innings, 182 hits, 79 walks and 172 Ks.

Mike Pelfrey

Many people are concerned about what is now called the “Verducci Effect”, which you can read about here.

It basically says that an innings increase of this much can lead to a big sophomore slump. I can’t predict if this will effect Pelfrey, but I will say Mike Pelfrey proved that he not only belongs in this league, but also proved that when he is on, he could dominate.

Pelfrey still remains a virtual one-pitch pitcher with his big-time sinker and secondary pitches that still need to be refined. But Pelfrey’s ability to keep the ball in the ballpark (nearly 300 IP, 19 home runs allowed) speaks well for his future.

Fearless prediction—No Verducci Effect for this big , lanky hoss. Mike Pelfrey, you have arrived.

2009—15-7, 3.87 ERA, 195 innings, 197 hits, 56 walks and 132 Ks.

Oliver Perez

The $36 million question is, "Was keeping Oliver Perez a good idea?"

The Mets flirted with Derek Lowe, only to be blown out of the water by the Braves to the tune of four years, $60 million, and bluffed interest in Randy Wolf only to retain the mercurial Mexican left in Petez.

Perez will likely continue to impress and befuddle all who follow him but keeping him was a necessity if the Mets were going to compete with the Phillies, a team Perez dominated, finishing last season with a 4-0 record and 0.35 ERA against the division rival.

Perez, at times, left the Mets bullpen to clean up his mess—more than a $12 million pitcher should—and will have to improve upon that in 2009.

All of that said, the Mets were 12-4 in games against the NL East in which Perez started, and I expect his dominance of the Phillies and Braves to continue.

Fearless prediction—14-9 4.10 ERA.

Freddy Garcia-Tim Redding

The Mets guaranteed Redding $2.5 million for one year after being impressed with the hurler's 2008 performance with the Nats, going 182 innings, finishing with a 4.95 ERA.

Like Perez, Redding was strong against the Phillies last year, and this likely appealed to the Mets.

Redding, formerly a top prospect with the Astros, is now more of a journeyman. At age 30, the Mets hope they have found another Rick Reed, or at the very least, someone who can out-perform the 5.61 era that Pedro Martinez posted last year.

Redding has incentives in his contract, which he could attain if he ends up in the pen. I expect him to start the season there.

Freddy Garcia not only looks like former WWE superstar The Rock, but he was rock solid as a member of the Mariners and White Sox in the early part of his career.

Injuries have really put a hurting on Garcia, and there is no telling if he has put them behind him, especially after being pulled from a start this winter with minor arm discomfort.

I expect Garcia to begin the season in AAA, with the Mets skipping their fifth starter, but Garcia will eventually getting the first crack at the No. 5 spot.

Fearless Prediction—Who knows at this point, but I will predict better No. 5 production than the Mets got in 2008 which will be a nice upgrade.