2012 NBA Draft: 5 Best Players to Gamble on with a Lottery Pick

GMs can pick for potential, or for immediate contributions during the draft.

Some players have can’t-miss written all over them. These players are polished and ready to pay dividends right away.

Other players have star potential, but come with question marks. They’re high-risk, high-reward.

These five risky picks are the best bet to roll the dice on in hopes that they’ll pan out down the road.

5. Terrence Jones, SF, Kentucky

Height: 6’9”

Weight: 252 pounds

2011-12 stats: 12.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG

Terrence Jones is the safest bet on this list.

Jones emerges from Kentucky with a tremendous physique. He is a question mark only because he is a bit of a tweener. In the NBA, it’s unknown whether he has the size to play power forward, or the quickness to play small forward.

Those same qualities make Jones a potential superstar.

With a build like LeBron James, he provides matchup-madness for opposing defenses.

As Jones continues to develop his offensive repertoire, he will become a tough player to defend in the NBA.

4. Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State

Height: 6’11”

Weight: 230 pounds

2011-12 stats: 16.4 PPG, 10.5 RPG, .549 FG percentage

Arnett Moultrie has the skills of a small forward hidden in the body of a center. His flexibility in the lineup is a tremendous asset.

His ability to play the 3, 4 or 5 allows coaches freedom to experiment with different lineups.

However, just like Terrence Jones, those same attributes may be seen as negatives by some. Moultrie comes across as a jack of all trades; master of none.

The X-factor for Moultrie is he is a big man who can sink his free throws. He improved his percentage from .535 as a freshman, to .651 as a sophomore and .780 as a junior.

That desire to improve will prove beneficial for Moultrie.

3. Moe Harkless, SF, St. John’s

Height: 6’8”

Weight: 208 pounds

2011-12 stats: 15.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.6 SPG

Moe Harkless can get to the rim, and he can finish at the rack.

He is not a good three-point shooter, but he is a tremendous interior scorer.

He’s long—Harkless has a 7’2” wingspan—which bodes well for him defensively.

He’s quick, athletic and lengthy. Those attributes are always the most sought-after come draft day. Sometimes they lead to draft busts, but other times they lead to hidden gems.

Look for Harkless to be the latter.

2. Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor

Height: 6’11”

Weight: 235 pounds

2011-12 stats: 13.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.3 APG

Perry Jones III is a curious case. His numbers regressed from his freshman year to his sophomore year. Rather than hanging around for a third season to improve those numbers, he declared for the draft.

That’s because his upside is too good to ignore (well that, and his impending suspension).

Jones’ explosive ability makes him a potentially game-changing rebounder and shot-blocker. He is also tough to stop in the low block.

1. Andre Drummond, C, UConn

Height: 6’10”

Weight: 270 pounds

2011-12 stats: 10.0 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.7 BPG

The rawest player on this list is also the one most likely to find himself on double-digit All-NBA teams.

Andre Drummond has the size, mobility and athleticism to be one of the best centers in the NBA. He enters the draft with the same upside Greg Oden did coming out of Ohio State.

What he lacks is a well-defined low-post game. Drummond has not demonstrated a ton of offensive skill.

What he lacks in go-to moves, he makes up for in raw power. As a rookie he’ll be able to power through just about any center in the NBA—save for Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum—for easy dunks.

You can teach low-post moves. You cannot teach Drummond’s combination of mass and agility.