2012 NBA Mock Draft: First-Round Picks That Will Set Teams Back
Some teams (if not most) will regret the picks they make in the first round of the 2012 NBA draft.
It's inevitable. It happens every year. And yet, there's really no way around it. The draft is a crapshoot by nature and, as such, will bear more than a few busts.
No team can afford to miss too badly on a pick, though the long-term impact of a miscue in the draft is magnified by a given team's spot in the order. That is, the earlier a team picks, the more there is riding on the success or failure of that selection.
And now that it's been established that this year's draft class isn't nearly as deep as previously touted, the futures of more than a handful of NBA franchises figure to fall with the college basketball stars on whom they're left with little choice but to pin their hopes.
1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
Anthony Davis is the only surefire star in this draft class, in large part because of his particular combination of NBA-ready defensive skills and immense upside all over the court. The Bobcats can only hope that Michael Jordan's second crack at deciding the No. 1 overall pick doesn't yield another Kwame Brown.
2. Washington Wizards: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
The Wizards have a number of options in front of them at No. 2, though none are particularly enticing for such a high position. They could pick up a backcourt buddy for John Wall in Bradley Beal or gamble on a boom-or-bust center in Andre Drummond.
Or, they could do neither and instead opt to bring on Thomas Robinson. The Kansas star is a late-bloomer with the athleticism and hard-nosed mentality to make an immediate impact on the glass, but whose offensive game is still a work in progress.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
The wing is the thing for the Cavaliers, who already have a franchise point guard in Rookie of the Year Kyrie Irving to run the show. MKG would make a swell running mate for Irving and an able replacement for the likes of Alonzo Gee and Omri Casspi, at the very least.
4. New Orleans Hornets: Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut
There's a chance that the Hornets go for Bradley Beal here if they determine that Eric Gordon is as good as gone.
In the meantime, New Orleans' need for size up front will likely leave Andre Drummond Bayou-bound.
For better or worse.
The UConn kid has the talent and the potential to be the best player to come out of this draft class. He's also enough of an immature headcase to go bust from the beginning, especially given the diva-like tendencies of players with his height and inherent ability in the NBA today.
The Hornets are likely willing to take that risk, albeit at their own peril.
5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina
The Kings could use a dose of perimeter shooting, particularly if Jimmer Fredette doesn't pan out as planned. Harrison Barnes can certainly hit shots from the outside, and might be able to expand his game at some point down the line if Sacramento exercises patience with him.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (via Nets): Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
Brandon Roy: retired. Jamal Crawford: most likely headed back into free agency.
Portland, then, sounds like as good a landing spot as any for Bradley Beal. As with any pick, the prescience of adding the precocious shooting guard out of Florida will depend in part on his ability to stave off the Blazers' suspect training staff.
7. Golden State Warriors: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
The Warriors have wound up with long, athletic and versatile big men before (see: Randolph, Anthony), which could make Perry Jones III particularly enticing.
Then again, these aren't your older brother's Dubs, front office included. Jared Sullinger isn't quite the athlete Golden State could use in the frontcourt, though his offensive skills are NBA-ready and his potential as "Kevin Love Light" must surely entice the powers-that-be in the Bay Area.
8. Toronto Raptors: Perry Jones III, SF, Baylor
Like Andre Drummond before him, Perry Jones III has all the talent in the world to be a star in the NBA, but carries with him questions about his passion and intelligence for the game.
Not exactly the best remedy for mediocrity north of the border, but it may be the only chance the Raptors have to turn things around in the meantime.
Trouble is, prospects like PJ3 fall flat more often than not, though that won't likely keep Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo from rolling the dice anyway.
9. Detroit Pistons: John Henson, PF, North Carolina
The Pistons have an offensive big man to build around in Greg Monroe. John Henson would give them a defensive dynamo to pair with him, one whose efficacy on both ends of the floor will grow along with his body and his burgeoning offensive repertoire.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Timberwolves): Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
Damian Lillard is arguably the best point guard in this draft class, even though he isn't strictly a distributor. The Weber State product's ability to play either backcourt position will suit him well in New Orleans, especially if Eric Gordon bolts the Bayou as a restricted free agent.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina
The Blazers' search for a center continues with Tyler Zeller. I'm tempted to slot the North Carolina grad in as a bust by virtue of his injury history and the company he'll keep (i.e. Greg Oden, Sam Bowie, LaRue Martin, Bill Walton), but Portland, more so than any franchise, has learned to cope with frontcourt failure.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Terrence Jones, PF, Kentucky
The power forward position wasn't particularly prominent in Milwaukee to begin with, and losing Ersan Ilyasova in free agency will only compound the problem.
The multi-talented Terrence Jones would give the Bucks a player who might alleviate that concern, and then some.
13. Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers, SG, Duke
Whether Steve Nash stays or goes doesn't change the fact that the Suns will need to find a replacement sooner or later. Austin Rivers is more of a shooting guard than anything, though he has the confidence, the pedigree and the skill to play both positions if need be.
14. Houston Rockets: Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois
Rockets GM Daryl Morey has seemingly spent his entire tenure in Houston chasing after size. At no time was this more evident than last December, when he nearly nabbed Pau Gasol via trade and Nene via free agency to form a fantastic frontcourt to follow in Yao Ming's gigantic footsteps.
But thanks to David Stern's meddling ways, he lost out on Gasol and wound up instead with Samuel Dalembert and picked up Marcus Camby (an impending free agent) at the trade deadline.
With those travails in mind, Morey will make a move for Meyers Leonard, the sinewy seven-footer out of Illinois whose physical abilities are bested only by just how dangerously raw he is as a player.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State
The Sixers could use some more size and toughness up front, Arnett Moultrie has plenty of both on his resume.
16. Houston Rockets (via Knicks): Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse
The Rockets seem less than thrilled with Kevin Martin at shooting guard and have had to deal with the dissatisfaction of Kyle Lowry at the point of late. Dion Waiters is capable of playing either spot, though he projects most prominently as a scoring combo guard down the line.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Jeremy Lamb, SG, Connecticut
The departures of Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Delonte West leaves the Mavericks with a gaping hole (or two) in the backcourt. Jeremy Lamb has the talent and the skills to fill at least one of 'em over the long haul, with the other likely to be filled via free agency.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Jazz): Terrence Ross, SG, Washington
Michael Beasley and Martell Webster might both be gone next season, and Wesley Johnson has been a bust through his first two years in the league. Terrence Ross' sweet shooting stroke should help to mitigate the loss of the former two and the mediocrity of the latter.
19. Orlando Magic: Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina
The Magic have many needs to fill, and may have even more if they dump Dwight Howard this summer. In the meantime, picking up a solid point guard like Kendall Marshall would grant Orlando some backcourt depth and make Jameer Nelson—entering the last year of his contract—an expendable asset.
20. Denver Nuggets: Tony Wroten Jr., PG, Washington
Tony Wroten has all the talent in the world to be a dynamite point guard, but falls this far in the draft on account of questions concerning his attitude, focus and desire to win.
That being said, the Washington product is big and notably athletic for the position, and sports the skill to be more than just a backup.
Though, for now, that's all the Nuggets will need him to be, what with Andre Miller on the way out and Ty Lawson emerging as a bona fide star.
But if Wroten doesn't pan out, Denver may have no choice but to break the bank to keep Lawson on board and go hunting for a second-stringer elsewhere.
21. Boston Celtics: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
Step 1 of the Post-Big Three Era: Bolster a thin front court that could be left even more frail should Kevin Garnett opt to retire or leave via free agency.
Fab Melo's big, he's tough and, as a late bloomer, he still has some room for improvement. Whether KG stays or goes, he'll give the C's a big body to plug into their rotation from day one.
22. Boston Celtics (via Clippers): Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor
Step 2: Start planning for Paul Pierce's retirement. The Truth still has a couple years of high-caliber basketball left in him, which gives the C's some leeway to pick a talented player who they can bring along slowly.
Quincy Miller certainly fits the bill. He'd have been a top-10 pick in 2013, but will instead have the opportunity to grow into a star with one of the NBA's most storied franchises.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Jeff Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt
There are few things the Hawks appear to enjoy more than spending draft picks on athletic wing players.
In that case, why not go for Jeff Taylor? He can run and jump with the best of 'em, and has worked diligently to improve his outside shot over the past three years.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Lakers): Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's
If the Cavs are smart, they'll load up on the wing again with Moe Harkless, who has the skill to score in bunches.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky
The Grizzlies need to find a steady backup for Mike Conley, regardless of whether O.J. Mayo stays or goes. Marquis Teague can provide a scoring punch off the bench for Memphis and, if older brother Jeff's career arch is any indication, might develop into a solid starter at some point down the line.
26. Indiana Pacers: Royce White, PF, Iowa State
There's no denying Royce White's tremendous talent. The Iowa State star has the size, strength and skills to be an outstanding point-forward at the next level, with the physicality to bang in the post and the ball-handling ability to distribute from the perimeter.
So why is he a late first-rounder then? Unfortunately, White's struggled with crippling anxiety for most of his life and could prove to be a liability because of it.
But, if the Pacers can find a way to harness his abilities and mitigate the effects of his mental illness, they may make a star out of him yet.
27. Miami Heat: Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure
Size remains a concern for the Heat, whose lack of depth has been all too apparent in these playoffs. Andrew Nicholson is big enough to bang bodies and do the dirty work up front, and has the skill to be anything but a liability on offense.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Evan Fournier, SF, France
The Thunder don't have any glaring needs, so GM Sam Presti will follow in the footsteps of his mentor, Spurs GM R.C. Buford, and draft an international star to stash overseas for a year or two.
29. Chicago Bulls: Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky
Doron Lamb is capable of chipping in at point guard while Derrick Rose recovers from his torn ACL and even more suited to being the shooter the Bulls have long coveted once their superstar point guard returns.
30. Golden State Warriors (via Spurs): Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt
With Andrew Bogut's injury history, there's no telling how long he'll hold up in the Bay Area. If nothing else, Festus Ezeli should serve as a big-bodied insurance policy for the Warriors' skilled center.
