NBA Draft 2012: Unbelievable Hype Will Haunt Likely No. 1 Pick Anthony Davis

Finding a mock draft without Kentucky's Anthony Davis at the very top is almost as hard as finding a team that wants to sign Allen Iverson.

Sometimes the conventional wisdom is conventional for a reason.

Nevertheless, the 6'10" forward is less of a sure thing than you might think.

Even if his skills grow with experience, the expectations associated with being the first-overall selection in a draft can take their toll. Whereas scores of other young players may be described as "projects," guys like Davis will be asked to contribute right away—and turn around a team like the Charlotte Bobcats in the process.

Of course, for all we know, Davis may be the most mentally tough big man to emerge from a draft since Tim Duncan. Never mind that he only spent one year in college. Maybe the kids are just growing up faster these days.

However,  there's a long list of elite big men who didn't pan out as expected, despite coming off the draft board before any of their peers.

For every Shaquille O'Neal, Dwight Howard or Chris Webber, there is a Kwame Brown, Michael Olowokandi or Joe Smith.

Then there are guys like Kenyon Martin, taken first overall by the New Jersey Nets in 2000. While Martin hasn't had a bad career by any means, nor has he had a career especially becoming of such a top-shelf selection.

Martin's experience may indeed be Anthony Davis' worst-case scenario—not a bust, but not a superstar either.

When he was a senior with Cincinnati, Martin averaged an impressive 18.9 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game, numbers good enough to make him the National Player of the Year.

Those numbers are similar to Davis' in a number of ways. Davis isn't yet the scorer that Martin was, but he's also coming off his freshman campaign. Martin wasn't quite as prolific a shot-blocker, but he's never had quite the same freakish length you'll find on Davis.

Despite a few differences, these two have a few things in common.

Like Martin, Davis relies heavily on his athleticism—a dangerous dependency given the extent to which age and injury can quickly reduce a player's quickness, agility and explosiveness. Knee problems began to take their toll on Martin just five years into his career, and he's never been the same player after a couple of micro-fracture surgeries.

Davis may also be asked to add some muscle so that he can body up against NBA front lines.

As innocuous as that may sound, there's no telling what will happen to Davis' athleticism once he bulks up. His bread and butter quickness and hops could lose some luster as his still young frame grows into NBA shape.

It's also yet to be seen what kind of scorer Davis will be at the pro level, where his sheer energy won't translate into quite as many buckets. If he never masters his post-game or a consistent jump-shot, we could be looking at a very Marcus Camby-like career.

Not a bad thing, but probably not want you want from a first-overall pick, either.

All along the way, Davis will be under a lot of pressure. If—as expected—he winds up with a team like the Charlotte Bobcats or Washington Wizards, he'll be the closest thing those fans have to hope in the near future.

He may quickly become one of the league's best interior defenders, but he'll also need to become a well-rounded superstar to justify the draft hype.