NBA Playoffs 2012: Heat vs. Celtics, Breaking Down the Eastern Conference Finals

Despite valiant efforts by the Pacers and 76ers, things ended up going as expected in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Celtics and Heat managed to win their series to set up another playoff meeting between the two rivals, this time with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. 

The matchup has everything you could want out of a playoff series. Both teams have been to the finals in recent years and have been under the microscope all season long.

The series could feature as many as seven future Hall of Famers in LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh for Miami, and Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo for Boston.

Also, the two teams have had some great games over the past two seasons, including in last year's playoffs when the Heat knocked out Boston in five games in the Eastern Conference semifinals. 

With Game 1 coming up on Monday night, let's look at the biggest questions heading into the 2012 Eastern Conference finals. 

Will Chris Bosh Be Able to Play?

Easily the biggest question heading into this series is whether Miami will have the services of All-Star forward Chris Bosh.

Bosh, who was injured in Game 1 of the Heat's series against the Indiana Pacers, is still suffering from a strained abdominal muscle. Although he initially was expected to be ready for this series, it is now uncertain when or if Bosh will be back for the Heat this season.

When talking to reporters Saturday, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said that he was moving forward as though Bosh would be unable to play.

While it is always more entertaining for the fans to see two teams in the playoffs go at it at full strength,  injuries are a part of the game and Miami may need to find replacement for Bosh's production from other players.

If Bosh is unable to play, however, the question that remains is... 

Can the Heat Still Win If Bosh Doesn't Play?

With Bosh out, many wondered if the Heat would even be able to get by the scrappy Pacers in the last round, especially after they fell behind two games to one in the series.

However, Miami won three in a row without Bosh, thanks in large part to the herculean efforts of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

James and Wade combined for 70, 58, and 69 points respectively in Games 4, 5 and 6. They may need to do something similar if the Heat are going to get by the Celtics.

Without Bosh on the floor, the Heat don't have many other scoring threats other than LeBron and D-Wade. Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem are all capable of contributing, but they have been inconsistent throughout the playoffs both this year and last year.

On defense, Bosh's presence has forced James to play more power forward, which clearly will wear on him physically, especially if he has to cover Kevin Garnett on a regular basis.

However, the answer is yes, as long as LeBron and Wade are on the court, Miami is capable of winning this series and advancing to the finals. However, without the services of Bosh, it will be that much more difficult for the Heat to defend their Eastern Conference championship from a season ago. 

The Heat aren't the only team in this series facing injuries. Boston is as well. Which leads us to our next question.

How Much Will the Injury to Avery Bradley Affect the Celtics?

The most significant injury for Boston heading into this series is the one suffered by guard Avery Bradley in Game 4 of their series with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Bradley's shoulder just wouldn't hold up. Boston was forced to shut him down for the remainder of the playoffs while he undergoes recovery from surgery. 

Although not a member of the Big Four for Boston, Bradley was a key part of the Celtics this season. He took over for Ray Allen as the starting two guard and really excelled in his second year in the league, averaging nearly eight points a game.

Where the C's will really miss Bradley, however, is on defense. Bradley is an excellent defender, and if healthy likely would have been given the task of covering Dwyane Wade in this series.

Without Bradley's presence defensively, Boston will be forced to rely on Allen, Mikael Pietrus and perhaps even Rajon Rondo to slow down Wade while Paul Pierce covers James.

Losing Bradley isn't a crushing blow to Doc River's team, but it certainly will hurt them in their chances of pulling off the upset.

Without Bradley in the lineup, it will be up to Rivers to make all the right moves, which makes us ask...

How Much of a Coaching Advantage Does Doc Rivers Have over Erik Spoelstra?

Doc Rivers has been through all the wars with this Celtics roster over the past five seasons, and he certainly has the experience edge of the two coaches in this series.

Unlike Spoelstra, Rivers has an NBA Championship ring, but both have faced their share of criticism during their tenures. 

Doc seems to have a knack for pushing all the right buttons during the postseason, and he will need every bit of that for Boston in this series. The good news for Rivers is that he doesn't need to convince his team they are good enough to beat the Heat, because they already believe that they are.

With veterans in the locker room like Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, Rivers doesn't need to worry much about getting his team pumped up, instead it will be the x's and o's where he will need to shine.

In late-game situations, Rivers always seems to have a solid play drawn up, where as Spoelstra has often been criticized for how he has handled such situations. Undoubtedly, there will be some close games in this series and coaching will play a big role.

Spoelstra is in no way a bad coach, but sometimes it seems as though he gets lost in the shuffle of having to manage three of the biggest superstars in the NBA.

If Boston gets up in the series, everyone knows the media will be asking "What's wrong with Miami?" and it will then be up to Spoelstra (who did a fantastic job of it in the Indiana series) to keep his team focused on one thing, continuing to advance and winning the NBA championship. 

Coaching can only get you so far, though. Whenever a team advances to the NBA Finals, it will need to get production from its entire roster. Often times, an unknown player will provide the lift his team needs to win, so the question for this series is...

Who Will Be the X Factors for Both Teams?

We all know what the stars will bring to this series, but who else will need to step up to ensure their team advances?

For Miami, in my opinion it has to be Mike Miller. He needs to provide that spark and take some of the scoring load off Wade and James, especially if Bosh is unable to go.

 Miller is a former sixth man of the year who has failed to live up to the expectations Heat fans had of him since he signed with the team. Granted, it is not all Miller's fault. He has been dealing with injury problems since he got to Miami and he has struggled to remain on the court. 

However, when Miller's on his game, especially from beyond the arc, it adds another dimension to the Heat offense. Miller is averaging just 5.3 points per game in the postseason. If he can up that number in this series into double digits, it will greatly increase the Heat's chances.

For Boston, my X factor is starting forward Brandon Bass. He has been consistently good for Dallas, Orlando and now Boston, but he often flies under the radar.

That all changed in the Celtics series against Philadelphia. Bass broke out, scoring in double figures in six of the series' seven games, including a 27-point performance in Game 5.

For a team that often struggles to score, Bass's production will be a must if the Celtics want to keep up with Miami's high-powered offense.

Speaking of Miami's offense, it is led by this year's MVP LeBron James, which brings us to our next question...

What Does LeBron James Need to Do in This Series to Quiet His Critics?

You would be hard-pressed to find a reigning MVP that has been more scrutinized than LeBron James.

Despite his amazing season which saw him capture his third MVP, James's critics still argue that until he wins an NBA championship, there is a cloud surrounding his legacy.

Last season, James had a less than stellar NBA Finals and saw his Heat bow out to the Dallas Mavericks. This season, the only way that James can quiet those critics is by winning a title, plain and simple. 

Unfortunately for James, he can't do that in this series against the Celtics so no matter what numbers he puts up. Until he gets that ring, he will still have those who question his greatness. 

Getting by the Celtics, though, is a necessary step in getting back to the finals and proving himself on the biggest stage. So I expect James to remain focused 100 percent during the duration of this series.

He knows how important he is to the Heat. If he doesn't show up for any game, they don't win, and in a best-of-seven series, you can't afford to throw away any games. 

Although he struggled in the finals last season, James was great in the first three rounds, including in the Eastern Conference semifinals against none other than the Boston Celtics, which brings me to my next question...

How Much Will These Teams Take from Last Year's Series?

In last season's Eastern Conference semifinals between these two teams, it didn't seem like that even of a matchup.

The Heat won the series 4-1, never winning by fewer eight points. During the series, it was the Heat's defense that was the key.

Boston never scored more than 91 points, as the Heat smothered the aging Celtics on D and wore them down with their talent on offense.

But a year later, does any of that even matter? You can bet the Celtics remember the series. For Boston, a team which had been to the finals the year before, getting ousted in five games in the second round was not what they had in mind. They were not ready to relinquish the title of the East's best team just yet. 

However, LeBron and company had other plans and the Celtics were embarrassed by the Heat. While there doesn't need to be added motivation to a series of this magnitude, I believe last year's series will be in the back of both teams' minds as they move forward, with Boston wanting to extract some revenge. 

When Boston was knocked out last season, there were those saying that they were too old to compete at an elite level anymore. Although they proved those doubters wrong by making it as far as they have already this season, you must remember that Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett are 36, and Paul Pierce is 34. So as we get closer and closer to June, it is only fair to ask...

Will the Celtics Run out of Gas?

When Derrick Rose was injured and unable to play and the Chicago Bulls went on to lose to the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, many believed that it was a gift for the Celtics. 

Playing the Bulls with Rose assuredly would have been a taxing series for an older Boston team. Instead, they faced a Sixers team that barely made it into the playoffs. With their experience, the Celtics were expected to win the series against the less talented 76ers, and quickly. 

While they did manage to win the series, it was far from easy. It took the Celtics seven games to knock out the feisty Sixers. If it weren't for a couple of clutch Rajon Rondo three-pointers  the Celtics could have easily been upset in Game 7 at home. 

Not only did their series with the Sixers go the max, but it was also very physical, which leads to the question: With their age, do the Celtics have enough left to knock out the mighty Heat?

I do believe the Celtics have enough left to play to the best of their ability in this series, whether it will be enough to win, though, is a different question. 

One thing for sure is that if the Celtics are going to win this series, they will need continued contribution from one blooming superstar, which leads me to ask...

Can the Heat Contain Rajon Rondo?

I'm just going to come out definitively and say it. Rajon Rondo is the best player on the Celtics.

Four years ago when the Celtics had first acquired their Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and the incumbent Paul Pierce, that sentence would have seemed crazy. But while the Big Three have all continued their steady play, they would be nowhere near the NBA Finals if it weren't for Rondo's production.

In a point guard-studded league, Rondo is right in the conversation for best in the NBA. During the regular season, he averaged nearly 12 assists a game to go with 12 points. But his stats alone do not tell the story of just how great he has been.

In the postseason, he has upped those numbers to more than 15 points and 12 assists. Rondo became only the third player in Celtics history to record a triple-double in a winner-take-all game when he posted 18 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in the Celtics' close-out game against the 76ers. The other two? Bill Russell and Larry Bird. If that doesn't say it all, I don't know what does.

If Miami wants to win this series they need to find a way to contain Rondo and control his penetration. This will be up to Erik Spoelstra, as well as Mario Chalmers and whoever else has the challenge of defending him. 

During the regular season, there were rumors about the Celtics possibly trading Rondo, but right about now you can bet Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers are happy they held on to him. Rondo may well be the future for the Celtics organization, but what about the original Big Three who helped the Celtics have so much success over the past five seasons?

With their increasing age and two expiring contracts, the question that must be asked is...

Will This Be the Last We See of the Celtics 'Big Four' If They Lose?

It seems unlikely that the entire Big Four (I'm officially including Rondo) will be under contract with the Boston Celtics next season. 

This is Allen's and Garnett's final season under contract with the Celtics, and despite their success as a group, seeing Ainge re-sign both 36-year-olds would be stunning.

Frankly it is time to move on after one last hurrah in this year's playoffs.  The team needs to rebuild around Rondo, with Pierce as his No. 2. I can see them re-signing Garnett to a one-year deal, but not Allen, and even that seems unlikely.

Rondo excels when he can get up and down the floor in transition. But with the current roster, that is simply not going to happen. The Celtics' best move is to add younger talent and begin to slowly change their style of play to fit Rondo's game.

It is entirely possible that Doc Rivers may head out as well. He has toyed with retirement before, and he has children that he wants to watch play sports growing up, including his son Austin, who figures to be a first-round draft pick.

The bottom line is, this is it for the Celtics as we have known them over the past five seasons. The group already has one title and appeared in two NBA Finals. So no matter what, the experiment has to be considered a success.

But the C's aren't done just yet. They still have one more title push in them, but the Miami Heat stand in their way.

So the final, most important question heading into the 2012 Eastern Conference final must be...

Who Wins and Why?

Both of these teams know what is at stake. They don't like each other and want nothing more than to knock the other out of the postseason, Not to mention they are just eight wins away from achieving their ultimate goal, an NBA championship.

This series will not be easy for either team, it will be a hard-fought, physical, defensive series that could go either way. 

But when you look at it from all sides, it is my official prediction that the Miami Heat win the series in six games.  

With LeBron and Wade, the Heat will simply have too much talent for Boston to overcome. When you are facing two of the top-five players on the planet, the only way to beat them is to out-tough them, but both Wade and James have shown they are not going to back down.

The Celtics will push as far as they can, but this is not the same team it was five years ago, and they don't have the legs to keep up with the Heat over a seven-game series.

Even if Chris Bosh doesn't play, Miami will come out the victors and once again be Eastern Conference champions.