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NBA Draft Lottery: No. 1 Pick Anthony Davis to Brooklyn Nets?

Pete TenneyMay 28, 2012

Ever since the first NBA Draft Lottery delivered guaranteed superstar Patrick Ewing to the New York Knicks in 1985, suspicion has surrounded this luck of the draw process.

So conspiracy theorists are almost expecting this statistically-improbable announcement Wednesday:

"...And the first pick in the 2012 NBA draft goes to ..... the Brooklyn Nets."

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Why would the league want luck to lean toward the Nets?  The NBA can't afford to have the Brooklyn move be a bust.

Suspicious fans point to a history of lottery outcomes that conveniently fit the NBA's preferred scenario against heavy odds.  Sure, the league says independent auditors and team representatives witness the privately-held drawing, but millions also witness David Copperfield's act without catching his sleight of hand.  

Clearly, the lottery isn't fixed all the time.  When weak draft classes are headlined by the likes of Andrew Bogut, that's Milwaukee's year to win the lottery.  But when league-changing players like Ewing or Allen Iverson or Derrick Rose are ready to splash into the NBA, the big markets win in shockingly disproportionate fashion.

Add skepticism over the league's manipulation of player trades, plus fan sentiment that officiating extends series and favors more marketable teams, and the NBA is swarmed with conspiracy theories.

This year, the NBA's preferred scenario is Anthony Davis to the Brooklyn Nets.  At the very least, the Nets somehow need to bump up into the top 3 of the draft. Mathematically this seems unlikely, because the team's finish "awarded" them 75 balls, and five teams have more.

Conspiracy theorists will throw math out the window and say the Nets' chances are excellent.  If they somehow win the lottery with only 7.5% of the ping-pong balls in the hopper, they're instantly competitive.  Deron Williams assuredly stays if Davis joins the roster.  The Brooklyn-New York rivalry is instantly established, and Brooklyn Nets merchandise continues to be a cash cow.

The odds say the Nets only have a 25% chance of landing a top-3 pick, and the kicker is that their first rounder is only protected if it's No. 1, 2, or 3.  Without a little extra luck, their pick goes straight to Portland if it drops outside the top 3 and then the dominoes could start to fall, with D-Will jumping ship and the roster unravelling.  Not the start Brooklyn wants, and not the flop the NBA can risk.

So with the NBA draft lottery results coming Wednesday, conspiracy theorists are emerging. And not just from griping fan bases—team executives are also rolling their eyes and waiting for luck to be on New York's side again, this time in Brooklyn.  

When the Nets beat the odds and move up the draft order, conspiracy red flags are going to be snapping and waving all over the place.

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