UFC 146: Lavar Johnson's Keys to Victory

Saturday night's contest between Stefan Struve and Lavar Johnson is perhaps the card's most intriguing matchup.

In Struve we have a 6'11" giant known primarily for his submission prowess, though he is certainly in no danger of being mistaken for a novice on the feet.

In Johnson we have one of the strongest, hardest punching heavyweights in the entire sport of MMA. Deficiencies on the mat stand as the biggest weakness for either fighter, but Johnson is more than capable of ending any fight in a split second.

Here, we will outline what Johnson needs to do to emerge victorious over Struve at UFC 146. 

Do Not Move Backwards or Fight Cautiously

Lavar Johnson needs to fight aggressively and come forward for three reasons.

First, Struve possesses the longest reach in all of mixed martial arts, a distinction he shares with light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Moving backwards in a fight where your opponent can stretch his arms a great distance more than you can is flat out detrimental.

Second, by moving backwards Johnson would invite Struve to shepherd him to the cage, a place where Struve would be able to tie him up and possibly bring the fight to the mat.

Struve is so tall that the possibility of him shooting in for a double-leg is somewhat outrageous. If the Dutchman is able to take the fight to the ground, it will be via the clinch or a knockdown.

Thirdly, Johnson has power to spare, but he can hit a lot harder moving forward than he can moving backwards, so circling away will only serve to mitigate his considerable power advantage in this contest.

Don't Kid Yourself on the Floor

If this fight goes to the mat, Johnson will be in severe trouble. The best way he could handle that situation, should it arise, would be to hang on for dear life.

If he finds himself on top, he needs to get up and back away like his life depends on it.

Should he find himself on the bottom, he needs to do what he can to tie Struve up. That means no submission attempts and no sweep attempts. He should only consider trying to stand up or improve position if he is in a spot where a submission is imminent or he is taking too much damage.

Otherwise, he needs to hold on for a standup or try to ride out the round.

Try to Make It a One-Round Fight

Struve has been victimized in the opening minutes of his fights before—first by Junior dos Santos, then by Roy Nelson.

Johnson should use those fights as a blueprint and go at Struve hard from the opening bell. He is best served by fighting aggressively and throwing everything he has at the Skyscraper right off the bat so that is what he needs to do.

He cannot let Struve find his range or get settled in. He needs to attack, attack, attack.

Conventional wisdom suggests that this strategy may not be wise given the potential that he might gas too soon. On the other hand, Johnson's best chance at victory is by scoring a knockout. 

Ultimately, the strategy he employs comes down to what he believes Struve will have more difficulty defending—a five minute bull rush or 15 minutes of methodical boxing.

I am of the belief that the former is his best choice.

Swing for the Fences

For me it really comes down to whether Johnson can land that one punch before Struve takes the bout to the mat. 

Lavar could conceivably out-point Struve in a three-round standup match, but he isn't really built to fight that way any more than Struve is built to brawl with him.

Above all else the key to victory for Johnson at UFC 146 is to go for broke in terms of looking for the knockout. Even if it means eating a shot, exposing himself for a takedown or forcing himself to run on empty should the fight make it to Round 3. 

He needs to swing hard and swing early and swing often.