2012 MLB Draft: Teams Most Likely to Botch Their First-Round Pick

Draft picks are the most fickle bunch of players in professional sports. 

This year's Major League Baseball Draft features a number of intriguing players, but no rock-solid superstars who you would feel comfortable saying will reach their ceiling. 

Due to the fickle nature of picks, and the lack of elite talent in this year's draft, there are going to be a number of teams who don't use their first-round selection in the best way possible. 

Here are the teams who will be most likely to botch their first-round pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. 

Houston Astros (No. 1 Pick)

The worst franchise top-to-bottom in baseball—ignore the record of the big league team, because they are getting by largely with smoke and mirrors right now—the Astros need to start infusing their system with the kind of high-upside potential superstars that will at least get them back to respectability in the future. 

Instead, the one thing you keep hearing about them and seeing in mock drafts is they are looking for a college pitcher who can move quickly and plug into the top of their rotation soon. That would be a good strategy if they were close to being a serious contender. 

When you have a chance to take a player like Byron Buxton, the Georgia high school star who has five-tool potential as a center fielder and is widely regarded as the best player in this class, there is no reason for them to pass on him. I want to believe they are just blowing smoke with their insistence on a college pitcher, but stranger things have happened. 

Predicted Pick: Stanford RHP Mark Appel

Pittsburgh Pirates (No. 8 Pick)

Given what the Pirates have gotten just in the first round of the last two drafts—Gerrit Cole (2011) and Jameson Taillon (2010)—it would be best to give them the benefit of the doubt with what they do this year. 

The general consensus seems to be that the Pirates are hot for Deven Marrero with the No. 8 pick. His defense at shortstop is outstanding—he boasts one of the best, most accurate arms in the draft and has terrific range. 

Problems come when you talk about Marrero's bat. He has little power in his swing, which isn't likely to get better, and he has regressed in his performance this season. If he is adequate with a bat, he will be an above-average player because of his defense. But there are doubts about how much he will hit. 

Predicted Pick: Marrero

Cleveland Indians (No. 15 Pick)

After you get past the first eight picks, the talent in the draft really drops off, so teams are likely going to make a lot more "safe" picks than they normally would. 

The Indians will fall into that category, as they have a long-standing obsession with college pitchers. That philosophy did change last year, with the selection of Francisco Lindor and Dillon Howard, but that could have been just an exception to the rule rather than a drastic change in approach. 

One of the problems the Indians have had with their rotation is an inability to draft and develop high-upside arms, which is why they tend to go after low-ceiling college arms that can contribute in the big leagues but don't have that top-of-the-rotation stuff you need to compete for championships. 

I would like to see them take another chance this year, and they could be more comfortable because of the rave reviews Lindor has drawn in low Class A Lake County, but it would be a surprise. 

Predicted Pick: Mississippi State RHP Chris Stratton

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