2012 MLB Draft: Ranking 10 Most Dangerous Bust Candidates in the First Round

With every first-round pick in the MLB draft comes the potential to be a high-profile bust. The higher the selection, the more that player's respective ascent to the major leagues will be scrutinized, as they're inherently more likely to be hastily slapped with a "bust" tag.

However, that has always been a major part of the MLB First-Year Player Draft and also what makes it so exciting; teams draft on what a player could be and not based upon their previous accomplishments.

More often than not, the elite college players are the first to be selected on draft day, as their experience against more advanced competition makes them seemingly more likely to succeed at the professional level. Still, it's by no means a guarantee that they'll be a sure-fire big-leaguer. 

Here is a look at 10 first-round draft prospects who have the potential to be busts in professional baseball. 

10. Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State

Position: SS

Height/Weight: 6’1”/180

Bats/Throws: R/R

DOB: 8/25/1990

College: Arizona State

Marrero is in the midst of an all-around down year, as he’s struggled at the plate all season and grown increasingly frustrated. However, he's still the best shortstop on the 2012 draft board.

At shortstop, he has soft hands, as well as average range and a plus arm. Scouts remain divided about whether his hit tool profiles as a big-league shortstop—regardless, he’ll need to improve his contact rate. Marrero will never hit for much power, but should be able to collect 15 to 25 doubles annually.

Marrero’s offensive production has been down considerably this season, which has scouts worried on how he’ll adjust to more advanced pitching in the minor leagues. While his defense may be the best in the entire draft class, is that worth an early first-round selection in the upcoming draft?

Projected Draft Round: Early to Mid First Round

9. David Dahl, OF, Oak Mountain HS (Ala.)

Position: OF

Height/Weight: 6’2”/190

Bats/Throws: L/R

DOB: 4/1/1994

High School: Oak Mountain (Ala.)

College Commitment: Auburn

Another player that scouts seem divided about is Alabama prep outfielder David Dahl, who has all the tools be a first-round pick but seemingly lacks the eye-opening, "wow" factor.

A left-handed hitter, Dahl has a level and smooth swing and plate discipline that allows him to handle quality pitching and drive the ball across the whole field. He does project to have some power, though it’s never really shown, as Dahl appears more focused on lining base hits rather than jumping the yard.

He has the speed to stick in center, though it’s uncertain whether he has the instincts or on-field aggressiveness to handle the position at the next level. He has all the tools that project well at the next level, yet it seems as though it will be a difficult ceiling to reach.

Projected Draft Spot: Mid First Round

8. Victor Roache, OF, Georgia Southern

Position: OF

Height/Weight: 6’2”/225

Bats/Throws: R/R

DOB: 9/17/1991

College: Georgia Southern

After belting 33 home runs in a year where offensive production was down throughout college baseball, Roache suffered a broken wrist in the first week of the season. However, he’s expected to make a full recovery. He has the most thump in his bat of any hitter in the draft thanks to quick wrists and an explosive weight transfer.

Despite missing the majority of the season, a team will ultimately draft Roache based solely upon his plus raw power.

However, that’s all he is at the moment: raw power. There’s no way of predicting how it will translate at the next level, especially considering he’s missed the entire season with the type of injury that could impact his bat speed moving forward.

While drafting a power-hitting prospect always has bust potential, Roache’s situation should be viewed as an extreme.

Projected Draft Spot: Late First Round, Supplemental First Round

7. Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty HS (Fla.)

Position: RHP

Height/Weight: 6’5”/200

Bats/Throws: R/R

DOB: 4/8/1994

High School: Hagerty (Fla.)

College Commitment: Central Florida

Much like Lucas Giolito, Eflin has everything one looks for in a prep right-hander—he’s just as risky of a draft pick, as well. Prior to the start of the 2012 season, Eflin corrected a flaw in his mechanics that has yielded eye-popping results.

His fastball has been up to 95 mph this spring—he was only flirting with 90 mph last summer—and he’s dominated some of the nation’s premier prep teams. The pitch also has a lot of late life and is consistently thrown on a downward plane to both sides of the plate.

Beyond his plus heater, the right-hander has the makings of a plus breaking ball that generates heavy downward action due to his lightning-quick arm. He’s also shown an increased feel for his changeup, though it still lags behind his curveball.

But much like Giolito (once again), Eflin suffered an arm injury early in the season that has his draft stock in jeopardy. He missed all of April while recovering from triceps tendonitis, but has since returned to the mound seemingly without missing a beat.

Eflin will have to prove he’s healthy in every outing leading up to the draft in order to solidify a favorable first-round selection. But even if that’s ultimately the case, he’ll still be a costly draft pick given the injury history and lack of track record relative to some of the other higher-profile arms.

As with Giolito, the injury concerns may be enough for teams to pass on drafting the prep right-hander. He’s seen a spike in his velocity this spring, which is commonly a precursor for an elbow injury.

Projected Draft Spot: Mid to Late First Round 

6. Joey Gallo, 3B/RHP, Bishop Gorman HS (Nev.)

Position: 3B/RHP

Height/Weight: 6’5”/220

Bats/Throws: L/R

DOB: 11/19/1993

High School: Bishop Gorman (Nev.)

College Commitment: LSU

Gallo put himself on every scout’s radar at the Perfect Game All-American Classic last August when he blasted a monster 442-foot home run at PETCO Park. Furthermore, his 60 career home runs at Bishop Gorman is a Nevada state record. Without a doubt, the left-handed hitter possesses the most power of anyone in the 2012 draft class.

However, like most young power hitters, Gallo’s swing can get long at times and he lands hard on the front side, causing him to struggle with quality off-speed offerings. On the infield, Gallo has showcased a low- to mid-90s arm across the infield, and he moves surprisingly well for his size.

He’s also received consideration as a right-handed pitcher, as his mid-90s fastball is one of the best in the class, and his slider has improved with experience. Recently, his fastball was clocked as high as 98 mph.

As expected, his potential as both a position and pitching prospect has hurt his draft stock, as teams seem to be undecided about where he best projects. Signed to play at Louisiana State next season, Gallo will have to be a high draft pick—likely as a position player—to forgo his scholarship.

Given his all-or-nothing approach at the plate, Gallo could severely struggle to adapt to the quality of pitching at the next level and ultimately fail to pan out as a hitter.

I guess it’s a good thing he’s also been blessed with a cannon for a right arm.

Projected Draft Spot: Late First Round

5. Addison Russell, SS/3B, Pace HS (Fla.)

Position: SS/3B

Height/Weight: 6’1”/210

Bats/Throws: R/R

DOB: 1/23/1994

High School: Pace (Fla.)

College Commitment: Auburn

A thicker player whose body doesn’t call for much projection, Russell has the arm strength to stick on the left side of the infield, likely third base.

As a hitter, Russell has above-average bat speed and in turn, projectable raw power. However, as one expects from a prep prospect, his swing mechanics and bat path vary from day-to-day and he lacks the all-around consistency that would make him an early first-rounder. Furthermore, his plate discipline leaves something to be desired.

Russell is a player with all the tools to be a big-league third baseman, but is a long way from reaching his high-risk ceiling.

Projected Draft Spot: Late First Round, Supplemental First Round

4. Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll HS (Texas)

Position: OF

Height/Weight: 6’3”/210

Bats/Throws: R/R

DOB: 11/12/1993

High School: Carroll HS (Texas)

College Commitment: Texas

Hawkins has been steadily climbing the draft board all season since his all-around, eye-opening performance at the 2012 NHSI tournament earlier this spring. Of all prep position players, Hawkins easily has the best bat speed and plenty projectable raw power.

An excellent athlete, Hawkins has surprising plus speed as well as a low-90s arm from the outfield. He’ll likely move from center field to a corner spot given his power potential, but that’s far from a knock on his abilities.

As a young power hitter, Hawkins will need to make significant adjustments at the plate as a professional, especially in terms of his pitch recognition and plate discipline. As we all know, that’s something that’s much easier said than done, which therefore gives Hawkins the potential to be a bust.

Projected Draft Spot: Mid First Round

3. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (Calif.)

Position: RHP

Height/Weight: 6’6”/240

Bats/Throws: R/R

DOB: 7/14/1994

High School: Harvard Westlake (Calif.)

College Commitment: UCLA

One of the nation’s top pitching prospects headed into the 2012 season, Giolito affirmed his potential as No. 1 overall draft pick by pumping 95- to 99-mph fastballs and dominating top-notch competition.

However, the right-hander has been sidelined since early March after spraining his UCL and has become one of the biggest gambles in the 2012 draft class. He’s begun throwing flat-ground sessions, though he’ll need to be able to throw for scouts to be a top pick.

A UCLA commit, Giolito’s injury will inevitably scare some teams enough to avoid drafting him. At the same time, his arm and arsenal—including a double-plus breaking and solid-average changeup—will surely be viewed as a gamble worth taking.

There will always a chance that Giolito further injures his elbow and requires Tommy John surgery. While this doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be a bust, there have been plenty of young pitchers that have never regained their pre-Tommy John surgery form after being a top draft pick.

Projected Draft Spot: Mid First Round

2. Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County (Ga.)

Position: OF

Height/Weight: 6'2"/175

Bats/Throws: R/R

DOB: 12/12/1993

High School: Appling County (Ga.)

College Commitment: Georgia

Anytime a prep position player is selected No. 1 overall, there’s enormous potential to be a bust. Even if that player only goes on to have a mediocre professional career—see B.J. Upton—they are still likely to be considered a “bust” relative to what could have been.

This year, it seems more and more likely that the Astros will make Buxton the No. 1 overall selection in 2012. 

If Buxton’s hit tool develops as many scouts predict, he has the chance to be a legitimate five-tool player—a term that’s seldom tossed around. The Georgia native has plus speed that is as evident in the outfield as it is on the basepaths, and there’s even room for it to improve. In the outfield, he also has arguably the best prep arm in the draft, having been clocked regularly in the low 90s with plenty of carry.

At the dish, Buxton has plus raw bat speed and an easy swing, which has led many scouts to project that the right-handed hitter will develop at least above-average power. Furthermore, he’s ability to recognize quality offspeed pitches at such a young age suggests that he’ll be able to hit for average in time, as well.

Projected Draft Spot: Early First Round

1. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

Position: RHP

Height/Weight: 6’5”/195

Bats/Throws: R/R

DOB: 7/15/1991

College: Stanford

The top collegiate arm headed into the 2012 season, the tall right-hander has the prototypical power build and 94- to 98-mph fastball to match.

But while his stats may suggest dominance, Appel has been too hittable all season. He struggles to get on top of his fastball at times, which results in straighter and lighter variations that linger up in the zone. 

While his slider can flash plus potential on occasion, it’s an inconsistent pitch. Appel’s struggles with the pitch have led to him throwing an increased amount of changeups this season—a pitch that currently works due to its speed differential and not due to movement. He’s a safe pick in any of the top five spots, but still lacks the polish and pitchability one looks for in an elite college pitcher.

As Appel will quickly learn, minor-league hitters—and even more so, major-league hitters—have no problem squaring up even the best velocity. And considering the right-hander’s tendency to leave his offspeed pitches up in the zone, he could be in a for a rude awakening upon beginning his professional career.

He’ll need to make adjustments along the way, but if he doesn’t, Appel’s bust potential is as high as anybody’s in the 2012 draft class, especially considering he's one of the more "established" arms on the board.

Projected Draft Spot: Early First Round