Fantasy Baseball: Finding the Sophomores, Avoiding the Slumps

In 2008, a crop of rookies came on to the scene and made some noise. While players such as Evan Longoria solidified themselves as true stars in the making and early draft selections, others were called up later in the year. Youth is driving the decisions of professional teams, leaving many veterans either without contracts or on the bench. 

Last season, call-ups created waiver wire excitement and had many owners up early to make sure they snagged the "next big thing." For many that were in that position last year, 2009 represents their first full major league season. 

The partial seasons have many wondering if we'll see growth or decline, as well as needing to understand when they should be drafted and if the players are true starters. Several are sitting at each position. 

Let's examine some of the players that made their way to the big league diamond for the first time in 2008. 

Shortstop 

This is a spot that hasn't had a lot of talent since stars changed positions, retired, or became old and injury prone. A new crop of young players is poised to take the it back to that next level. A couple sophs lead the way. 

Last season, Jed Lowrie surged through the Boston minor league rankings and eventually took over full-time for the often injured Julio Lugo. Lowrie began his career on fire, but saw his average drop by 40 points over the final month-and-a-half of the season. The story out of Boston is that he had an injured hand, and is now fully healthy. 

Expect Lowrie to maintain his hold on the Boston job and Lugo to take over as a utility player. Lowrie adds versatility, as he can play second and third. Expect him to get enough time at third to qualify to start there by mid-season at the latest.

He had power in the minors and certainly should grow this season. He's a late round pick, and one that should be at least a middle infield option in 10-team leagues.

Mike Aviles didn't get much publicity, as he spent his 2008 campaign in Kansas City. The shortstop/second basemen still managed to put up a .325/10/51 line in 102 games. Aviles was above .330 for June, July, and August before falling off to .308 for the month of September.  

The Royals will need him to repeat this performance and I would look to him as a utility player if nothing else. 12-team leagues certainly could see him in a starting role at either short or second. Expect a similar .310/15/65 line in his first full season. 

Second Base 

It's likely Alexei Ramirez only qualifies at second base in most leagues, but he could also log some time at shortstop under the right circumstances. He did play 16 games there last season. Ramirez put up 136 games for the White Sox last season, and should be a full-time option again in 2009. 

His .290/21/77 is only going to get better this season. Ramirez is a solid player in a shallow position. Once you move outside the top-five or seven second basemen, the talent level disappears. He's a top-ten caliber player at his position that can be had slightly later in drafts than many of the elite second basemen. 

Staying in the AL Central, Alexi Casilla is likely to be seen as the answer at second base for the Twins. Casilla has spent parts of the last two seasons with the club, and appeared in nearly 100 games in 2008. His power numbers don't jump off the page at you, but his .281 AVG last season is respectable. 

Deeper leagues should look to Casilla as a bench alternative, but he's a fringe position starter in 14-team leagues. If you need multiple middle infielders, he's an answer in those same 12 to 14-team leagues. Not a steady play, but certainly one with upside that can be found late in drafts. 

First Base 

The list at first is a short one—Chris Davis. Davis was called up and managed .285/17/55 in only 80 games. His ceiling is high, and the upside in grabbing him is huge. He's a reason why you don't have to grab a top-five first basemen early in a draft. 

I have Davis ranked as my No. 12 first basemen right now; the position is just very deep. On top of that, there are many sure things at the position that make the risk not as worth it for those that are looking for definite answers. That said, there isn't a doubt that Davis could beat every projection out there. 

He's going to play 81 games in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball, and isn't going to see the best pitching in that AL West. The concerns, though, have to be that we haven't seen him over the course of a long season. Will he fall off after the break? We don't know, there are no trends. 

If he were to come in with .275/27/85, I'd see this as about right. I'm knocking his average a bit from last season since pitchers have seen him, and don't see a complete doubling of the numbers for the same reason. 

If you can grab Davis as a third basemen, though, I like him MUCH better, and could see him finishing well inside the top-ten at the end of the season. He does have the dual eligibility. 

Outfield 

The outfield is littered with possibilities. We saw Jay Bruce lead the charge in 2008, and he is being correctly valued in most drafts, so we'll leave him off the list for now. As we look at the rest of the league, there are plenty of chances to take in later rounds on players that we saw do their thing in limited time last year. 

Chris Dickerson only saw action in 31 games in 2008, but he certainly made the most of his debut. The Cincinnati outfielder hit six home runs in his limited engagement, showing flashes of the power he only displayed sparingly in the minors. He's solid if not spectacular, and should be looked at to fill bench spots or as an extra outfielder in deep leagues. 

Chase Headley had a lot of hype as he entered San Diego, but didn't exactly live up to the top billings. Owners need to discount his value because he hits in such a pitcher-friendly park. Headley posted nine home runs in 91 games, and hit just .269 on the season. He won't qualify at third this season to start. 

The concerns certainly have to be if he can increase his production and hit like those in the organization feel he can. At this point, I can't see drafting him in nearly any format until the final few rounds. 

Denard Span clocked 93 games for the Twins last season, and managed to steal 18 bases in that time. He didn't show a lot of pop, but will have a solid spot in the Minnesota outfield as they enter the spring. At 25, expect him to build on this past season and be a steal in the latter third of any fantasy draft. He's a fourth or extra outfielder in deep leagues. 

Shin-Soo Choo is a player I love. He spent a similar amount of time up as Span did, but showed much more power. After the All-Star break, Choo hit .343 and .400 in September alone. Owners that were making a playoff push at the end of last year were likely boosted by the production from the Cleveland outfielder. 

Choo put up 14 home runs on the season and 66 RBI. I like him to better those numbers this year and see an expanded role in the lineup moving forward. There are some questions, especially as to if the Indians will explore using Ryan Garko in the outfield as well. Yet, Choo will be available late in all drafts and owners need to give him a hard look. 

Other positions didn't quite see the type of talent brought up in the middle of the season. Third base is largely occupied by veterans, outside of Longoria and Davis mentioned earlier. The wildcard could be what Florida decides to do with Jorge Cantu, especially with the power display Dallas McPherson had in AAA last season. 

Catchers will see a few rookies come to the position, but no one that was called up in 2008. Pitchers are viewed differently, as the performance of even established stars can vary over any given year. 

Look for these names in your draft that may not have had a full season to put up numbers, but can prove valuable in 2009 when added to your roster.