Fantasy Baseball 2012: Bryce Harper Headlines Countdown of Top 7 Rookie Hitters
The following slideshow touts Major League Baseball's seven best rookie hitters—from a fantasy perspective only.
The countdown is both a reflection of a player's existing track record from 2012...along with his prospects for the months of June, July, August and September.
The rules constituting a rookie's eligibility can be a little ambiguous, but I'm sticking to the definition laid out below:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has: (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).
Enjoy the show!
7. (1B/OF) Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres
1 of 72012 Stats: 1 HR, 11 RBI, 8 Runs, 1 Steal, .296 Batting
Skinny: The day will come when Alonso converts his prodigious doubles rate into 25-homer seasons in the big leagues, but for now, fantasy owners should only be concerned with Alonso's progress as a potential .300 hitter and sneaky-good source for RBI and runs.
After all, it's not like any GMs invested a draft pick on the 25-year-old wunderkind—they simply reacted quickly to Alonso's earlier-than-expected breakout in San Diego.
As undrafted free agents go, Alonso has been a nice find for owners who can never have enough corner-infield assets.
6. (3B) Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
2 of 72012 Stats: 4 HR, 21 RBI, 13 Runs, 3 Steals, .274 Batting
Skinny: Nothing against Chone Figgins, but it was imperative for either Seager (highest slugging rate on the club at .452) or fellow rookie Alex Liddi to win the third base job during spring training.
If the Mariners are going to compete for a division title in 2013 or '14, Seager and/or Liddi had to become permanent fixtures in the infield in 2012.
The No. 6 ranking shouldn't be associated with middling expectations in Seager's case. He has the capacity for 15 homers and a .270 average this season, with 17-19 homers/.285 average next year.
Bottom line: Seager's upside is quite substantial.
5. (3B) Will Middlebrooks, Boston Red Sox
3 of 72012 Stats: 4 HR, 14 RBI, 9 Runs, 2 Steals, .278 Batting
Skinny: Middlebrooks had a lightning-fast start to his season, racking up one steal, three homers, five runs, seven extra-base hits, nine RBI and nine hits in his first 22 at-bats (May 2-8).
That was enough to spark rampant speculation that Middlebrooks would immediately supplant Kevin Youkilis (currently on the disabled list) at third base and lead the next wave of touted prospects on the parent club.
Since then, Middlebrooks has endured a slight dip in production, but it's easy to see why the Boston organization is so high on the 23-year-old...regardless if he plays third base, shortstop or the outfield this season.
The kid could tap into his 17-homer/70-run potential next year.
4. (C/DH) Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
4 of 72012 Stats: 5 HR, 12 RBI, 17 Runs, .248 Batting
Skinny: Montero has the requisite talent and power potential to be a dynamic fantasy asset for the next 10-12 years; but his recent struggles (one HR, .148 batting since May 2) suggest it may be too soon to rank him ahead of Yoenis Cespedes—or maybe even Middlebrooks and Seager.
But there's a reason why Montero (39 HR/142 RBI for the 2010 and '11 minor league seasons) has been earmarked for greatness the last two years (as a Yankees farmhand); and there's a reason why the Mariners surrendered pitcher Michael Pineda in a classic 1-for-1 blockbuster trade last winter (although New York fans might contest that notion).
Bottom line: Montero will be an anchor in the Seattle lineup for years to come. He will be among the best catchers in fantasy, and he will be a three- or four-category force, sooner rather than later.
Just give him a little more time.
3. (OF) Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland A's
5 of 72012 Stats: 5 HR, 21 RBI, 10 Runs, 4 Steals, .245 Batting
Skinny: Cespedes (currently on the 15-day disabled list) may have fallen off the pace of 30 homers and 30 steals in the last few weeks. But as fantasy rookies go, he's still an intriguing asset for the stretch run.
Bottom line: The quicker fantasy GMs look past his Mark Reynolds-esque connection to strikeouts, the quicker they'll realize Cespedes can be a strong No. 4 or 5 outfielder in 12-team leagues and viable contributor to a title contender.
Adjusted seasonal targets: 18 homers, 17 steals and 55 runs.
2. (OF) Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
6 of 72012 Stats: 2 HR, 5 RBI, 11 Runs, 1 Steal, .238 Batting
Skinny: Harper deserves all the kudos for stealing home against the Phillies, unwittingly baiting pitcher Cole Hamels into a beanball-related suspension (May 6) and belting homers on consecutive days (May 14-15).
But as I've noted in past blog entries, very few major leaguers have been fantasy dynamos in their age 19 seasons; and Harper, for all his boundless potential, still has plenty of adjustments to make against the world's best pitchers.
Could Harper be a legitimate fantasy star next year? Absolutely. But even future studs require time to find their proverbial sea legs at the plate...and on the base paths.
1. (OF) Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
7 of 72012 Stats: 3 HR, 8 RBI, 12 Runs, 3 Steals, .333 Batting
Skinny: We're really splitting hairs between Harper and Trout, but the 20-year-old merits the top spot for various reasons:
1. Benefiting from last year's brief, but successful run with the Angels, Trout should encounter fewer slumps this season.
2. Trout is a virtual lock to beat Harper in batting average and steals.
3. Trout is the stronger play for 18 homers and 18 steals by season's end.
4. Playing on the West Coast, Trout's media scrutiny will be less intense than Harper's.
In other words, if you have the means to trade for either future star at a commensurate price...focus on Trout and let others weather the Harper growing pains.

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