Fantasy Football Mock Draft 2012: Full 4th Round with Pick-by-Pick Analysis

The 2012 NFL draft is now part of history, and as free agency concludes over the next few weeks and we near the beginning of training camp, another fantasy football season will kick into gear as leagues across the land gather in person or online to conduct their 2012 draft.

Doing your homework can give you a significant advantage on your opponents in the upcoming season, so this will continue a series of articles that will take an in-depth, pick-by-pick look at an entire fantasy draft, from the first running back selected to the very last kicker off the board.

For this mock draft, we'll assume a standard 12-team league with 16 roster spots in which you start one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker and one team defense. This league has no "flex" position, but does award one point per reception and six points for all touchdowns, be they passing, rushing or receiving. The draft is serpentine, meaning that the draft order is reversed in even-numbered rounds.

Other scoring is "standard," meaning 10 rushing/receiving yards per point, 25 passing yards per point, three points for all field goals (with a two-point bonus for field goals of over 50 yards) and defensive scoring that awards points for turnovers, sacks and yardage and points allowed. Lost fumbles and interceptions thrown are a two-point deduction.

You can view the first round of this mock draft by clicking here.

You can view the second round of this mock draft by clicking here.

You can view the third round of this mock draft by clicking here.

Now that the rules have been laid out, team twelve is on the clock.

Team Twelve (4.01): Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints

Lost somewhat in Drew Brees' assault on the record books and Jimmy Graham's breakout second season was the fact that New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marques Colston put together another solid year in 2011, reeling in 80 catches and topping 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight year.

Colston finished 10th in fantasy points among wide receivers in 2011, his fifth top-20 finish at the position in his six-year career. Taking a third wide receiver this early in the draft carries with it some risk, but in a PPR format such as this, Team Twelve now has a very formidable starting cadre of wideouts.

First Pick: Wes Welker, WR, NE

Second Pick: Roddy White, WR, ATL

Third Pick: Fred Jackson, RB, BUF

Team Eleven (4.02): Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons paid a hefty price to move up in the 2011 draft and select wide receiver Julio Jones. The former Alabama standout didn't disappoint, hauling in 54 passes for 959 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie while finishing 13th among wide receivers in fantasy points per game.

Jones missed three games a year ago, and there's always a bit of a risk of a statistical backslide with second-year wideouts. However, it's even more likely that the big-play threat will top last year's numbers, and Team Eleven continues to successfully build a well-rounded squad from a back-end draft slot.

First Pick: Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN

Second Pick: Tom Brady, QB, NE

Third Pick: Mike Wallace, WR, PIT

Team Ten (4.03): Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

The question of what sort of season Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford could put together if he could stay healthy was answered resoundingly in 2011. The fourth-year pro exploded into NFL and fantasy stardom, eclipsing the 5,000-yard passing mark while tossing 41 touchdown passes and finishing as fantasy's fifth-ranked signal-caller.

A statistical regression is a very real possibility with Stafford in 2012, and the fact that he's played 16 games only once in three seasons is a concern. However, there's a 50-plus fantasy point gap between Stafford and the sixth-ranked quarterback from a year ago. So, even should he post slightly less gaudy numbers this year, Stafford remains a safe bet for top-five production if he can stay healthy.

First Pick: Matt Forte, RB, CHI

Second Pick: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK

Third Pick: Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC

Team Nine (4.04): Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers

The biggest beneficiary of Cam Newton's phenomenal rookie season for the Carolina Panthers last year was veteran wide receiver Steve Smith, who topped 1,000 receiving yards and finished among the top 10 fantasy wide receivers for the first time since 2008.

Smith turns 33 this week (happy birthday!), but the 11-year veteran has missed only six games over the past six seasons, so durability isn't a huge worry. If the "elder statesmen" that Team Nine has drafted over the past two rounds can live up to expectations in 2012, then this squad should be well on their way to contention despite a less-than-ideal draft slot.

First Pick: Andre Johnson, WR, HOU

Second Pick: Jamaal Charles, RB, KC

Third Pick: Frank Gore, RB, SF

Team Eight (4.05): Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints running back Darren Sproles had an absolutely fantastic first season in the Big Easy, racking up career highs across the board, scoring nine total touchdowns and shockingly finishing among the top five fantasy running backs in leagues that award a point for receptions.

It's risky to count on Sproles to repeat those sorts of numbers in 2012, given that they were far and away the best of his career and all of the turmoil swirling around the Saints this season.

However, there's also no denying that Sproles has considerable upside in the prolific New Orleans offense due to his receiving ability. Mark Ingram's lingering knee issues could also mean additional carries on the ground, so depending on your tolerance for risk, Sproles could be a good value as an RB2 with top-10 upside.

First Pick: Chris Johnson, RB, TEN

Second Pick: Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE

Third Pick: Jordy Nelson, WR, GB

Team Seven (4.06): Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots

Team Seven has apparently decided to employ the Golden Corral method of fantasy football drafting, as for the fourth time in as many rounds the team has selected a player from a different position, which will make hitting middle-round picks to acquire second starters essential later on.

Rob Gronkowski may have stolen most of the headlines at the tight end position last year in New England, but batterymate Aaron Hernandez didn't exactly stink up the joint himself. The third-year pro finished third in fantasy points among tight ends in 2011, making 79 catches for 910 yards and seven touchdowns.

First Pick: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, AZ

Second Pick: Ryan Mathews, RB, SD

Third Pick: Cam Newton, QB, CAR

Team Six (4.07): Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

There's a school of thought in fantasy football that a wide receiver's third season in the National Football League is a "breakout" year, and while it doesn't always hold true, there have been enough instances of it happening to lend the theory some credence.

The leading candidate to be this year's poster child for third-year receivers is Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys. Bryant would appear poised for the first 1,000-yard receiving season of his career as his role grows in the Dallas offense, and his ability as a red-zone target increases his fantasy upside.

First Pick: Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB

Second Pick: Jimmy Graham, TE, NO

Third Pick: Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG

Team Five (4.08): Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Once upon a time, it was Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Now, however, the duos of Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are so closely ranked in fantasy value that it's not out of the realm of reason to see teammates go back to back.  

The senior of the Dallas Cowboys wide receivers suffered through an injury-marred 2011, missing six games with various injuries. However, there's no reason to believe that the 27-year-old won't be healthy in 2012, and it's not unreasonable to expect a return to his 2009-2010 form, when Austin was a top-15 fantasy option at his position.

First Pick: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAX 

Second Pick: Drew Brees, QB, NO

Third Pick: Brandon Marshall, WR, CHI

Team Four (4.09): Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons

For the second straight season, running back Michael Turner of the Atlanta Falcons topped 1,300  rushing yards in 2011, and for the third time in four seasons since joining the team, the 30-year-old bellcow was a top-15 fantasy producer at his position.

The wear is starting to show on Turner's tires after over 1,100 touches over the past four years, and his lack of involvement in the passing game hurts his PPR value. However, Turner is going to receive the lion's share of carries in the Atlanta backfield, and the veteran is a solid if unspectacular RB2 option for fantasy teams that pass on the position early.

First Pick: Calvin Johnson, WR, DET

Second Pick: Greg Jennings, WR, GB

Third Pick: Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA

Team Three (4.10): Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans

This is by far the riskiest pick of the draft so far for Team Three, as Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt's supposed "breakout" third season in 2011 was cut short after only three games by a torn ACL. 

However, Britt did manage 285 yards and three touchdowns in those games a year ago, once again flashing the considerable talents that make him such a tempting fantasy option. Sure, it's a gamble, but with Kendall Wright now drawing defensive attention, Britt could potentially have top-10 fantasy upside this season, and these are the sort of lottery ticket picks that win championships. 

First Pick: LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI

Second Pick: Trent Richardson, RB, CLE

Third Pick: Victor Cruz, WR, NYG

Team Two (4.11): Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos

At this point in the draft, there is a fairly large group of wide receivers who it can be argued all have very similar fantasy value, and the order in which these players are drafted will likely be largely reliant upon individual tolerance for risk and personal preference.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is another prime candidate for a third-year "breakout" season with the arrival of quarterback Peyton Manning in Denver. If Thomas and Manning develop a quick rapport, it's possible that the former Georgia Tech star could have fantasy WR1 upside.

First Pick: Arian Foster, RB, HOU

Second Pick: Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG

Third Pick: DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL

Team One (4.12): Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Team One faces a crossroads at this juncture in the draft, as if they choose to forgo the tight end or quarterback positions on this trip around, the turn the options that will available 22 picks from now will be far less appealing.

For now, the team will delay that decision and stay the course by selecting a second wide receiver in Jeremy Maclin of the Philadelphia Eagles. Maclin doesn't possess the blazing speed of teammate DeSean Jackson, has yet to surpass 1,000 yards in a season and suffered through an illness and injury-marred 2011.

However, his role as the primary underneath target in the Eagles offense makes him a more dependable weekly option in PPR leagues than Jackson, and if Philadelphia bounces back this season, a now-healthy Maclin should post the best numbers of his four-year career.

First Pick: Ray Rice, RB, BAL

Second Pick: A.J. Green, WR, CIN

Third Pick: Steven Jackson, RB, STL

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