Top Five Fantasy Baseball Draft Questions: First Base

1. Who should be the number one first baseman off the board?

Like with the catchers, this shouldn’t be much of a discussion. Albert Pujols is putting up numbers that baseball hasn’t seen for a long time. In every season of his career, Pujols has hit at least .310, hit at least 32 homers, and driven in 103 runs. You let me know if any other player at this position can give you that kind of consistency.

Mark Teixeira has similar power with an inferior average and a history of slow starts.

Ryan Howard’s average approached .250 last year, which takes away from the added power he gives you. 

Miguel Cabrera could enter the discussion too, but he generally hits 25-30 points lower than Pujols.

Pujols has declared himself 100 percent healthy this season, which is scary considering the statistics Pujols put up last season. To me, he is the easy number one choice at first base.

2. Will Prince Fielder return to his 50-home run power?

I don’t think that you will see a return to the 50-homer plateau for Fielder in 2009, but I do believe he will hit more than the 32 he connected on in 2008. He did finish strong, hitting six homers, driving in 20 runs, and raising his batting average by 16 points in the last three weeks, giving you hope that it will carry over into this season.

At age 26, there’s no reason to think that his statistics will continue to decline and he is still a great mid-to-late second round selection. Look for about a .285 average, 42 jacks, and 110 RBI. Oh, and about 30 stolen bases...just kidding.

3. Was that the REAL Kevin Youkilis in 2008?

Do I think he is going to hit nearly 30 homers and drive in over 110 runs again in 2009? No. Do I think he will hit over .310 again in 2009? Ah, yes. The Youker (Or Youka, as they would say in Boston) broke out in a big way last season and went from a guy who gave you an average and not much else to a top 10 option at first base.

Boston locked him up to a long-term contract, which I don't think will have an effect on his play. I don't see Youkilis as a guy who gets comfortable and lazy after he gets paid.

He should be somewhere between the ninth to 11th first baseman taken off the board. Look for a .315 average with 25 HR and 93 RBI.

4. Whose stats will start to fall off?

There are a number of players whose stats won’t look as good as they did in 2008.

Lance Berkman got off to an incredible start before finally cooling down to end the season. I don’t think that there is any reason he can’t keep his power numbers in line with where they were last year, but I feel that his batting average will dip into the .290s.

And if you think he is going to steal 18 bases again you are out of your mind! The guy is built like the Sta-Puf Marshmallow Man. He is also 33 years old, and fat guys in their mid 30s don’t tend to steal that much.

Derrek Lee in Chicago is on his last legs of fantasy relevance in my opinion. His power has been slowly dwindling away, and his batting average dropped 26 points from '07 to '08. He did get off to a good start last season, but he hit eight homers in April, which makes his final total of 20 look even worse.

He is definitely outside of the top 10 at the position, closer to the 15th-best first baseman in my opinion. He could reach 20 homers again, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he fell short of that. His only redeeming quality at this point is that he generally hits around .290-.300.

Carlos Delgado was on his way to being run out of town in New York until manager Willie Randolph was fired, and Delgado started hitting like it was 1999. To expect 38 homers again from a 36-year old is a little much. Expect Delgado to take a fairly considerable step back, but still be a serviceable option at first base. I would look for about a .285 average with 27 homers and 90 RBI.

Aubrey Huff conjured up memories of his early Devil Ray days in 2008 when he hit 32 jacks and drove in 108 runs for the terrible Orioles. After three seasons of below average play, what Huff will show up this season? There is a chance that he will duplicate his 2008 numbers, but I wouldn't draft him with players with similar numbers. You have to discount these stats by about 20 percent for a realistic projection of what he will do in 2009.

5. Are any young former prospects ready to take the next step?

In recent years there has been a ton of hype on young guys like Conor Jackson, James Loney, Billy Butler, and Casey Kotchman. Which will be a viable fantasy player for years to come?

Conor Jackson’s biggest problem is that people expect to draft power hitters at the first base position, and he has yet to break 15 homers in a season. His average is good, hovering around .300, and he will give you a small handful of stolen bases, but nothing that he has done in his career excites you to this point. Jackson never showed any sort of impressive power in the minors, so there’s no reason to expect him to turn into a 30-homer guy all of a sudden. If you draft Jackson, know what you are getting, .300 hitter with 15 homers and 75 RBI.

James Loney is kind of in the same boat as Jackson, and he is almost an identical player. Loney has a textbook swing and hits for a good average, but the power numbers have just never been there. Loney only connected 13 times, but did knock in 90 runs. There seems to be a little more sentiment around baseball that Loney might eventually develop more power, but to expect him to hit more than 20 would be a stretch.

Casey Kotchman has been around a little longer than the other guys, and has had his share of injury history. He will hit for a good average (although that has been slipping in recent years), and will contribute around 15 homers. Kotchman is 26 years old now, so to expect a surge into the next level of first basemen would be dreaming. He should not be drafted as a everyday starting first baseman.

Billy Butler is the one guy who has a good chance to make that next step. Unfortunately, he is so bad defensively that he will spend most of his time at DH. Hopefully, the Royals will give him enough starts at first to retain his eligibility.

Butler not only showed an impressive average in his stay in the minors (lifetime .336 hitter on the farm), but hit for some pretty impressive power as well, with 13 HR and 46 RBI in just 57 games at Triple-A in 2007. That’s a pace for nearly 40 homers. It hasn’t translated at all to the majors yet, but the signs are there that Butler could break out.

Do you have your own questions? Do you disagree? As always, your comments and questions are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss “The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show” on Blog Talk Radio every Wednesday night at 10 p.m. EST.