NBA Playoffs 2012: Breaking Down West's Chance to Beat Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are going to win the East, so we might as well begin checking out how the powers of the West measure up.
The second Bulls guard Derrick Rose tore his ACL was the second the Heat won the East. There simply isn't another team with anywhere near the firepower to take down Miami.
They will have a relatively easy path to the finals, while the favorites in the West beat each other up trying to earn the right to face Miami. In the Finals, the Heat's championship quest will get much more difficult.
Here is how the top three seeds would fare against the Heat in the NBA Finals.
San Antonio Spurs
Regular Season Record vs. Heat: 0-1
Due to the screwy post-lockout schedule, these two teams met just once during the regular season. That game was in Miami and the Heat won handily, 120-98. However, that game was way back on January 27th, and the Spurs were at a much higher level at the end of the season.
That game holds little meaning over what might happen in the finals.
The Heat are the superior defensive team. They held their opponents to a full four points per game less than the Spurs.
San Antonio is the better offensive team, though, and a much better rebounding squad.
Let's take a look at some of the key matchups.
LeBron James vs. Spurs
Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs' 20-year-old rookie and starting small forward, is a good defensive player and a decent option to guard LeBron James. He has also been strong offensively so far in this postseason, and his shooting won't allow LeBron to leave him and play the passing lanes.
The Spurs also have Stephen Jackson to bring off the bench. Jackson will have a hard time slowing down LeBron, but brings some offensive punch.
With all that said, it's LeBron, and the Heat have a huge edge here.
Dwyane Wade vs. Manu Ginobli
Manu comes off the bench for the Spurs, but this will be a marquee matchup for the majority of the game, and it will be a great one.
Both of these guys are good defenders. Wade is a better defensive player, but Manu's D has always been underrated.
Helping Manu to beat Wade on offense will be his excellence in the pick and roll. This would be an excellent battle all series, but Wade gets a slight edge.
Tim Duncan vs. Chris Bosh
Duncan may be getting, but not so old he won't be able to school Bosh in this matchup. Duncan is what Heat fans wish Chris Bosh was. He can score in the post, grab rebounds and he consistently shows up.
He also knows what it takes to succeed in the Finals. Bosh may have a few games where his jumper is falling and he is a factor, but Duncan will own this matchup.
Tony Parker vs. Heat
Plain and simple, the Heat will have to play solid team D to stop Parker. He may be playing the best basketball of his career and Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are not going to slow him down.
They will also not be able to do anything offensively against the solid defense of Parker. This is a huge advantage for the Spurs.
The Rest
The Spurs are a much deeper team. The Heat have some decent role players in place, but the Spurs consistently find scoring and defense from everyone in their rotation.
Prediction: Spurs in Six
The Spurs have the talent and experience to take down the Heat.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Regular Season Record vs. Heat: 1-1
The Thunder hosted the Heat and spanked them 103-87 on March 25th. The Heat returned the favor on their court, but with a far less convincing 98-93 victory on April 4th.
The Heat are a much better defensive squad than the Thunder, but Oklahoma City has the edge on offense, scoring 4.6 points more per game. They also have a big edge on the boards.
Here's a look at the key matchups.
LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant
What a dream matchup in the NBA Finals this would be. In fact, it would be one of the greatest individual matchups in history. There are the legendary Bird vs. Magic matchups, but they played different positions.
The Finals have featured Hakeem Olajuwon vs. Patrick Ewing and Shaquille O'Neal, but the Dream turned those into lopsided affairs.
I may be forgetting a matchup, but to find something that could top this, you'd have to go back to Wilt Chamberlain vs. Bill Russell.
We are talking about the two players that will likely finish first and second in the MVP voting.
To get a feel for how pivotal this matchup would be, check their two games this season. The difference in those outcomes is pretty simple. Durant outplayed LeBron in the Thunder's win, and LeBron outplayed Durant in the Heat's win.
There isn't a lot of sense breaking this one down. It would just be two great players battling to see which can do a better job of taking their game to new heights.
Dwyane Wade vs. Thunder
Starting Thunder small forward Thabo Sefolosha is a nice defender. He will be able to provide decent resistance on Wade, but will put no pressure on him on the other end, which will leave Wade free to help on other players.
This will end up being more of a matchup between James Harden and Wade. Harden logs almost twice as many minutes per game anyway.
Harden is a decent defender, but he will need help with Wade. His offense will keep Wade honest, but he'll have a hard time scoring on him. Overall, this is a big win for the Heat.
Russell Westbrook vs. Heat
Just like the matchup with the Spurs, the Heat will have few answers for the opposing point guard, and won't challenge him on the offensive end.
The Heat will need Chalmers to hit some open threes to keep Westbrook from slacking off and playing the passing lanes to have any chance of not making this matchup a huge loss.
Chris Bosh vs. Serge Ibaka
This matchup will limit the defensive liabilities of Bosh, but Ibaka, who has a good chance to win Defensive Player of the Year, is going to make it hard for Bosh to ever get going on the offensive end.
This could prove to be a disaster for Bosh. Having to face Ibaka night in and night out could lead to him pulling the ol' disappearing act.
Still, with Ibaka's lack of an offensive game, the Heat get the edge here.
The Rest
The bench is not a strength for either of these teams, but they both have players that know their roles. There is not a big edge to be had here for either squad.
Prediction: Heat in Six
After last year's final, I'm not in a position where I trust this group of Heat players in the clutch, but they've earned more trust than a roster full of Thunder who have never been to the finals before (not counting Derek Fisher, who may have been in those Russell-Chamberlain finals). The Heat's experience will make the difference.
Lakers
Regular Season Record vs. Heat: 1-1
The Lakers split with the Heat by losing on the road 98-87 on January 19th, and beating them at home, 93-83, on March 4th.
It is dangerous to read too much into these contests. They were both before the Lakers traded for Ramon Sessions and Chris Bosh did not play in the second contest.
Los Angeles finished exactly middle of the pack (15th) in both scoring and points allowed and are well below the Heat in these categories. They have a huge edge in rebounding, though, to the tune of 4.6 more per game.
Time to look at the matchups.
Kobe Bryant vs. Dwayne Wade
Should this matchup take a backseat to Durant vs. LeBron? I'm not so sure. Kobe is playing amazing and is right in the MVP discussion with Durant and LeBron. And while Wade will not be as high in that voting, he still has the ring that LeBron doesn't have, and has proven he can perform on the biggest stage.
The point is, this finals matchup will be an absolute joy to watch in all aspects of the game.
This could definitely be considered a wash, but I'm giving the slightest of edge to the Mamba here. He's got relatively fresh legs and he is ready to bring it on offense and defense like he did when he was six years younger. And as great as Wade is, he is not as lethal as Kobe.
LeBron James vs. Lakers
Metta World Peace is not the defender he once was, and it's not even close. Still, he is one of the few small forwards with strength somewhere in the neighborhood of LeBron and he will wear King James down a bit.
He also ended the year playing his best basketball of the season, but who knows what we'll get when he returns from his suspension? He is the wildest of wild cards. Another aspect is that Peace gives the Lakers the best chance at keeping James off the boards, and the Heat are going to need his rebounding in this series.
The Lakers will also throw Matt Barnes and Devin Ebanks at LeBron. Neither will be close to being able to handling him one-on-one, and aren't a huge threat on the offensive end.
The Lakers will want one of these guys to be hot, so their shooting will keep LeBron honest. This is a huge advantage for the Heat.
Pau Gasol vs. Chris Bosh
Gasol is not a terrible matchup for Bosh. He has the length to disrupt Gasol in his post game, and Pau is not the type of player that will overpower the relatively weak Bosh.
Still, Gasol is much better in the post, and unless Bosh is hot with his jump shot, Gasol will be the more efficient scorer. Also, Gasol is going to destroy Bosh on the boards.
This is a definite win for the Lakers.
Andrew Bynum vs. Heat
The Heat don't have anyone with anywhere near the physical tools to contend with Bynum. Their best chance is to get Bynum on Udonis Haslem or Bosh and hope they can pull him out of the lane with their jump shot.
This way, Bynum won't be posted up to block shots and grab boards. Obviously, this is not ideal, and Bynum will have his way with them on the offensive end.
Anyway you look at this one, Bynum gives the Lakers a huge edge here.
The Rest
Sessions' addition to this roster can't be understated. He gives the Lakers someone to help break down the Heat's defense off the dribble, which will help the Lakers use their big advantage in the frontcourt. Also, his shoddy defense shouldn't cause them many woes against the Heat's point guards.
The Heat have an edge with the bench. However, the emergence of Jordan Hill has given the Lakers bench a huge boost and narrowed this gap.
Prediction: Lakers in Seven
The Lakers' advantage in the frontcourt would carry them to this win. Andrew Bynum's emergence is more than the Heat can handle. Still, this would be a great series, and the Heat's defense would allow them to outrun the Lakers and lead to some big wins.
