2012 NBA Playoffs: 5 Reasons Why Orlando Magic Should Beat Indiana Pacers

I first wanted to write this article after Game 1, when the Magic stunned the Pacers and stole home-court advantage.

Even after Game 2, I still feel that this is a realistic outcome of the series. Magic fans might agree with me, and Pacers fans might think I'm on something. But the reality is that after two games, the Indiana Pacers are not the clear-cut favorites that most people predicted going into this series.

I don't have a bias towards either team, and whoever ends up winning, it makes no difference to me. But I feel that the Magic deserve more credit for being better than your average sixth seed in the Eastern Conference, and at the very least will give the Pacers a run for their money.

Here are five reasons why I think the Orlando Magic could, and should, make it to the second round.

Indiana Has No Veteran Closer

I haven't watched too many Pacers games on TV this year, but as I sat through the fourth quarter of Game 1, I was surprised at how difficult it became for the Pacers to score, seemingly out of nowhere.

With established veteran players like Danny Granger and David West, and rising stars such as Roy Hibbert, Darren Collison and Paul George, it seems like the Pacers should be able to score whenever they want.  

But they have the same problem Denver has: who is going to make the big plays when the game is on the line?  

The Orlando Magic Are Better Than We Thought, Even without D12

Be honest: how many of you thought the Magic would struggle just to avoid getting swept out of the playoffs this season without D12 manning the middle?

I certainly hadn't picked them to win many games because, as the dominant line of thought went, losing Dwight meant losing their identity and ability to play inside-out. While this may be true to a degree, the Orlando Magic in 2012 aren't the Cleveland Cavaliers in the post-Lebron season.

Ryan Anderson could start on most teams. So could Jameer Nelson. J.J. Redick and Hedo Turkoglu are quality guys who can make plays, and both Glen "Big Baby" Davis and Jason Richardson are capable of hitting big shots when it counts.

Do they have a star now? No. But they have guys who can play, which is why they are no worse off than the Pacers in this series.

Orlando Has the Advantage at Coach

If someone asked you to list the top five head coaches in the NBA this season, chances are you wouldn't even have Stan Van Gundy come to mind. But why not?

Van Gundy has been through a lot  this season with his best player doing everything but publicly asking for him to be fired (and even that can be debated). Sure, he's made mistakes of his own, but when it comes to coaching his team and getting the most out of his players, he is a master.

I have no idea what the average Orlando Magic fan thinks of Van Gundy, but from an outsider's perspective, he has what it takes to at least get this team to the second round of the playoffs.

Indiana head coach Frank Vogel is good, there's no doubt about that. He has his guys playing defense and believing in themselves. But now that his team has shed its scrappy underdog status, it remains to be seen if he can continue to motivate them in the same way. Time will tell, but for now, the advantage goes to Van Gundy.

The Ewing Theory?

Readers who frequent the writings of ESPN.com's Bill Simmons will appreciate what I'm talking about here. Essentially, the Ewing Theory is a concept The Sports Guy came up with to help explain how teams that end up losing a talented player end up performing better in that player's absence.

You can read up on it if you'd like, but the theory comes into play here because of Dwight Howard's absence for the entire 2011-12 NBA playoffs, coupled with the fact that nobody saw Orlando putting up a fight in the first round. The idea is that the Orlando Magic are in a perfect place to play the "nobody believes in us" card all the way to a potential upset of an unproven Indiana Pacers team.

In a recent article, Simmons discussed this possibility, while at the same time pointing out the irony that Ewing, the obvious namesake for the theory, is currently an assistant coach with the Orlando Magic. 

Will the theory win out? Or will Ewing's presence on the Magic cancel out whatever advantage they otherwise might have had?  

The Pacers Aren't Ready to Contend Just Yet

This one, of course, is up for a lot of debate. Some teams make the leap from non-contender to contender in just one season, while for others, a period of longer growth is required.  

The Pacers don't have that one guy (or at least no one has stepped into that role yet), and because of that, I'm inclined to place them in the latter category. I'm not knocking their talent, and I still think it's very possible for them to win the series if they play up to their collective talent.

I'm just not positive that they will. Yes, they won Game 2, and yes, they are the better team. But even in a seven-game series, the better team on paper doesn't always come out on top.