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🚨 Mitchell Headed to 1st Conference Finals

Derrick Rose Injury: Predicting How Far Chicago Bulls Can Go in Playoffs Now

Peter EmerickApr 29, 2012

The Chicago Bulls' playoff outlook certainly shifted when Derrick Rose went down with a torn ACL late in the inaugural game of the 2012 NBA playoffs Saturday afternoon against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Before Rose's season-ending injury the Bulls appeared to be a lock for an Eastern Conference Finals showdown with the Miami Heat. It would've been an absolutely epic rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Finals class between the two beasts of the East.

Losing Rose certainly doesn't help the Bulls' chances of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals this year, but I'm not sold on the fact that it hinders their chances of achieving that goal all that much either.

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I'm not doubting the Bulls are a better team with Rose, as these statistics below show just how valuable he is to the team.

With Rose:  .821 Win Pct. (39 games), 98.1 PPG, +8.7 Scoring Diff.

Without Rose:  .667 Win pct. (27 games), 93.9 PPG, +7.5 Scoring Diff.

The most interesting aspect of those statistics is that the Bulls aren't that much worse without Rose in their starting lineup.

Sure, the winning percentage is significantly lower, but that's because of the lopsided amount of games in both categories, as losses mean more in the games without Rose because there are less.

With all that being said, it's time to predict just how far the Chicago Bulls can make it without Rose in their starting lineup. I'll start with their predicting the result of their first-round matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers.

First-Round Matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers (Chicago in five games)

The Bulls are already up one game on the Sixers. While knocking the Sixers out of the playoffs will be a little bit more difficult without Rose, it's still all but certain.

With Rose in the lineup, the Bulls were one-and-one against the Sixers.  Without Rose in the lineup, the Bulls dominated the Sixers in Chicago by nine points.

The Bulls will still dominate the Sixers in their first-round matchup mainly because the Sixers just aren't playing that well at this point in the season.

The Bulls depth coming off the bench will prove too much for the Sixers to handle, as they don't have a competent enough roster rotation to contend with the Bulls for the length of a playoff series.

The Bulls will beat the Sixers in five games, which will instill some resemblance of hope in Chicago, as the Bulls will swiftly move on to the second round to face a dangerous Boston Celtics team.

Second-Round Matchup with the Boston Celtics (Chicago in seven games)

A playoff series with the Celtics might not seem winnable for the Bulls, but there's no doubt that it is, as evidenced by the regular-season series between both teams.

In three matchups without Rose, the Bulls won two, with both wins coming with the Bulls at home in Chicago.

In both of those Bulls' victories over the Celtics, the C's had every member of their "big three/four," and the Bulls were still able to win by an average total of eight points per game.

The Bulls won those matchups because of increased production from both Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng, who each averaged 21 points per game.

If the Bulls are going to have any chance of knocking off the Celtics, both Deng and Boozer are going to have to step up their production. I expect those players to do just that.

This series between the Bulls and the Celtics will go with which team is playing at home. Ultimately, with Game 7 taking place in Chicago, the Bulls will make it out of this second-round series alive by the skin of their teeth.

Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat (Miami in five games)

Watching the way LeBron and company dismantled the New York Knicks yesterday makes me want to say that the Heat would sweep the Bulls in a potential Eastern Conference Finals matchup, but I just can't do that.

The Bulls will make it back to the ECF, giving fans the Bulls-Heat rematch they want to see, but having to fight a veteran Celtics team for all seven games in the previous round and not having Rose will prove too much for the Bulls handle against the Heat.

Without Rose the Bulls were able to knock off the Heat during the regular season. But that won't matter all that much, as the Heat are playing on a whole other level now the the playoffs have started.

The Bulls might be able to squeak out one win against the Heat. That in and of itself would be a big-time victory, as they will be out-matched and overwhelmed by the star power and strength of the Heat.

So there you have it.  

The Bulls 2012 playoff run will end where it did last season, which will be disappointing for Bulls' fans, as they'll be left wondering "what could have been" if Rose wouldn't have gone done with his knee injury.

Will the Bulls be able to make it back to the Eastern Conference Finals, or will their playoff run end early?

Weigh in with your thoughts in the comment section below. 

🚨 Mitchell Headed to 1st Conference Finals

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