NBA Playoffs 1st Round Upset Special: Atlanta Hawks over the Boston Celtics

One team is storied and has won a championship with its nucleus. The other is maligned and barely supported by its yawning home crowd. So the gap between the teams is perceived as yawning as well. 

Here is one historical snippet that encapsulates it all, via Atlanta reporter Michael Cunningham: "Celtics have 43 playoff Ws in last 4 years. Hawks have 44 playoff Ws since 1988."

The Hawks are perceived as playoff underachievers, which isn't entirely right. They have never been to the promised land, but they never promised one either.

If anything, the Joe Johnson-era team has overachieved in the postseason. The Hawks never ceded a series to a team with a better record or point differential. They pushed a vastly superior Boston squad to seven games in 2008, and they toppled a better opponent (Orlando) last year. 

This brings us to a first-round series in which the Hawks are considered underdogs by most.

Boston has a worse record than the ol' feathered talons (it's really a toss-up in the grand scheme) and a worse point differential (+3.4 to +2.5). The Hawks also have home court, which is roughly a six point advantage in an average game. Keep in mind, the home court team wins roughly four out of five game seven matches. 

Let's get to why I really like the Hawks with the old, "Necessity is the mother of invention" quote. Zaza Pachulia is likely out for the series, which will force Atlanta to try some hoops chicanery. Look for Josh Smith to start at center, which sounds like a horrendous idea until you consider the opponent. Boston is the worst offensive rebounding team in the league and is in no position to punish a 6' 7" guy at the five spot.

Moreover, shifting Smith to center will allow Larry Drew to surround him with four three-point shooters—much needed breathing space for an offense that stagnates against elite defensive units like the Celtics.

Much as I love Avery Bradley, I don't love Boston's two-guard defensive ace in a battle with Joe Johnson. While I hate to settle a fight on a prosaic reason like "size," Bradley is 6' 2'' and 180 lbs to Johnson's 6' 6.75" and 240 lbs.

To quote Brett Koremenos on HoopSpeak, "With Avery Bradley likely to draw Joe Johnson as his defensive assignment, Atlanta head coach Larry Drew may try to slow the game down and pound the ball into Johnson in the mid-post." Johnson may just try and turn Bradley into acorn paste. 

To be sure, the Celtics have a high ceiling and have lately made a stilted offense look respectable. With Bradley lately hitting above the arc, they have avoided the offensive death knell of carrying a lineup with four non-three-point shooters.

The defense is what should scare any team facing Boston, as they have the best one in the league when fully firing. These are concerns for ATL, but I expect them to hit enough threes to win, thanks to Smith at center. 

Remember, Boston gave up home court advantage and a possible (easy) Orlando matchup by beating the Magic, then tanking versus the Hawks. Based on the matchups, I believe this was a mistake. Based on Celtics history, I may well be mistaken for presuming to know something that escapes Doc Rivers.