College Football: The Next 13 Programs Likely to Change Conferences

Conference realignment has only just begun. Many think that the worst has passed with Texas A&M and Missouri heading to the SEC, Nebraska moving into the Big Ten and West Virginia taking its leave of the Big East for a more attractive Big 12, but that is far from the truth.

With mergers heating up, powerhouses becoming restless and independents vying for a spot in big-time leagues, there is still a lot left to do. The college football landscape will be an ever-changing ocean for the next few years as the leagues slowly but surely make their way into the "super conferences" format.

The pressing questions on everyone's mind, however, are what will make the difference. Will the SEC continue to expand? Will Notre Dame ever abandon its independence? Will the Pac-12 and the Big 12 powers come to an agreement? We can only guess at this point.

And guess we shall. Here are my next 13 programs likely to change conferences as the 2012 season approaches with rapid haste.

Oklahoma

To start off the madness, Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma University will finally make its move into the Pac-12. After being continually shot down, the Sooners will emerge the leader of the Big 12's exodus to the west coast.

OU President David Boren holds the reins for this entire operation, slowly but surely forcing his esteemed establishment towards the Pacific. The ten-team Big 12 has been teetering on the edge of the abyss ever since the so-called "betrayal" of long-time conference members Texas A&M and Missouri, only remaining alive due to the power of the LHN and the additions of West Virginia and TCU.

The Sooners, however, have seen the writing on the wall and, although being denied the first time around, will persist till the Pac-12 accepts them with open arms. The Big 12 is a dying conference with a limited future while the west coast holds not only the stability and academic power Oklahoma craves, but also mountains of money to boot.

When all is said and done, OU taking their services to the Pac-12 is in the best interest of their university. Strong competition, great recruiting grounds and boatloads of cash are just a few of many perks the Sooners will stumble upon once they reach the land bordering the Pacific.      

Oklahoma State

While the Sooners and the Cowboys aren't "legally" bound together, most everyone knows that where Oklahoma goes, OSU comes as a package deal. As the two dominant universities in the state, each has retained their unique aspects while also linking together to form a more perfect educational system.

As the Pac-12 bears down upon the Big 12 powerhouses, the Cowboys' big brother will eventually find a way into the west coast. While many see Oklahoma State as a liability to the Pac-12's esteemed academic institutions, the Cowboys' recent success on the football field has more than quelled any doubts about their ability to compete out near the Pacific.

Put simply, where Oklahoma gets accepted, expect their little brother Oklahoma State to be trailing close behind. In this case, it's the Pac-12 that is taking each of them in.  

Texas

With Oklahoma making its way into the Pac-12, their long-time rival and conference mate Texas will most certainly seek to follow.

As of right now, the large roadblock keeping the four-university move from happening is the Longhorns' desperate attempt to retain their precious LHN and all of the income that comes with it.

The $300 million-20 year deal was a giant bonus for UT, allowing them a very constant $15-million per year from ESPN. If Texas left for the Pac-12, however, their new conference would not only require equal revenue-sharing amongst all of its members (which would include the LHN money), but also would cut up the prized network into two Pac-12 regional TV systems, one covering OU and OSU and the other featuring UT and Texas Tech.

For the prideful Longhorns, the whole idea of sharing the wealth was basically hell on earth.

However, when the Oklahoma schools leave for the west coast, Texas will be forced to go with them, LHN or not. Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott would welcome UT with open arms, allowing them access to the massive amounts of cash inflow that the conference brings in.

Texas' other options, though, are somewhat viable. While losing their top competition in the conference in OU and OSU, the addition of WVU gives the Longhorns a new rival to match up against. This fact alone, along with their ability to keep the LHN under their control, may be enough to sway UT into staying in the Big 12.

Lastly, UT could declare independence, but no one wants that. Just look what happened to Georgia Tech after they took leave of the SEC.

The most likely decision for Texas would be transferring over with rival Oklahoma to the Pac-12. The promise of stability, money, and strong competition should be more than enough to persuade the stubborn Longhorns. 

Texas Tech

Similar to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State's relationship, the Longhorns and the Red Raiders have now become "brothers." With old-time rival Texas A&M heading out for the SEC, UT will need a moving buddy on their way to the Pac-12 and Texas Tech provides for that position in full.

While TTU isn't exactly a prime-time academic institution nor a football powerhouse, their location and promise to deliver Texas should be more than enough to clue them in on this massive move west.

Other than that, the Red Raiders would just be dust in the wind to the Pac-12. Without the Longhorns, Texas Tech isn't going anywhere, as they are essentially a package deal.   

Notre Dame

Like Oklahoma, most of this conference realignment seems to hinge on the decision-making abilities of the Fighting Irish. Having stood as football independents for decades now, Notre Dame's way of life has finally been threatened in a real and very dangerous way in the form of "super conferences."

The whole idea of gluing together four, maybe five, 16-team leagues would not necessarily make the Irish an outlier as an independent, but if those "mega-conferences" were all in a playoff structure like the one the NCAA is moving towards as we speak, ND would be in serious trouble.

Not having an "in" to the postseason festivities would kill the Irish's credibility as an athletically powerful institution, effectively ending their dominance as one of the richest and most well-known football programs in the nation.

While there have been speculations of ND looking at the Big East and the ACC, both with good reason, the obvious landing spot for the Irish must be the Big Ten. The Big Ten is easily the most stable of the four power conferences, having only added two members since their beginning.

Furthermore, South Bend is located right in the heart of Big Ten country, making travel to other conference members easy and efficient. The league also has a very solid income that Notre Dame could greatly contribute to, making each more financially sound.

Finally, the Irish would be able to keep some of their most storied rivalries. Michigan, Michigan State and many other Big Ten universities have deep ties with Notre Dame, giving ND not only a stable home, but also a competitive one.  

Rutgers

While the Big Ten sat at 11 universities for a long time before adding Nebraska, the conference wouldn't repeat that mistake by just adding Notre Dame. The Scarlet Knights are more of a commodity than many give credit as they hold the key to many powerful northeastern markets as well as a better than decent football program.

Overall, Rutgers seems to be overlooked on a national scale. As the prime university in the state of New Jersey, this program certainly deserves more attention and the Big Ten will give it to them. While the ACC might come calling with intention to use the Scarlet Knights as "moving buddies" for UConn, the Big Ten could offer to give Rutgers a safe, secure spot nestled in their conference. 

While this may be the most improbable move yet on this list, one must consider the facts. The Big Ten is looking to expand to the east following the addition of Notre Dame. A presence in the northeastern TV markets would be a huge step in the right direction and with both Pitt and Syracuse gone, Rutgers is the perfect fit.

With the Scarlet Knights in the fold, the Big Ten would have access to the millions of people in New York, eastern Pennsylvania and the entire northern section of the eastern seaboard. Rutgers doesn't bring much to the table on the academic or athletic side alone, but monetarily they are a gold mine waiting to be discovered.

With the Irish coming in as member No. 13, Rutgers should slide in at No. 14 to conclude the Big Ten's outreach in college football realignment. 

Virginia Tech

As the SEC continues to ripen, the Hokies will eventually have to look into the possibility of changing conferences. While the ACC may seem like a perfect fit now, V-Tech is stuck in a figurative rut with nowhere left to go.

With the Southeastern Conference adding both Texas A&M and Missouri to their repertoire this past year, Mike Slive and the league are done expanding to the west. Their vision has turned to the east coast and its many untapped resources.

While Virginia Tech officials have declared their possible move to the SEC as "poppycock," the Hokies' future prospects in the ACC must be seen as dwindling. As the foremost football power in the conference, the V-Tech has failed to gain a national title despite top-notch recruits and big-time coaching.

Meanwhile, four different SEC universities have claimed the past six national championships with ease. The Hokies have to be salivating at the possibility of finally reaching that elite level in the college football world, taking their program beyond what many could have dreamed a few years ago.

Both sides would prosper greatly from this union, essentially creating a more perfect SEC. Virginia Tech would gain boatloads of money, better competition and the shot to finally take home their elusive title. The SEC, however, would then have access to the valuable Washington, D.C. TV market, the fertile Virginia recruiting grounds, and a brilliant basketball program.

This move, while unlikely right now, will become more of a reality with each passing V-Tech offseason. The SEC will bide their time quietly, waiting for the perfect time to bring the Hokies over to the dark side.     

West Virginia

With the Mountaineers already making their way into the Big 12 this upcoming season, moving conferences again anytime soon seems highly unlikely. That is where you're wrong.

Does anyone truly think that West Virginia's first choice was the Big 12? The distance and cultural differences are too extreme for this relationship to last for an extended period of time, making it just a temporary stop for WVU.

The Mountaineers' pipe dream must involve taking their services to the ACC, but academic standards will continue to hold them back on that front. That leaves the SEC and their cultural similarities. While it is noted that the conference supposedly turned them down this past year in favor of AAU member Missouri, college football's most powerful league won't make the same mistake twice.

While many think that SEC expansion has slowed down, I believe that they are just getting started. The additions of Texas A&M and Missouri brought in top-notch academic, athletic and financially powerful universities. Similarly, courting V-Tech also helps the conference gain access to big TV markets and another strong football program.

Rounding out the 16th and final member will be difficult considering the restrictions the rest of the members have placed on the SEC. With Florida blocking Florida State, Georgia holding back Georgia Tech, South Carolina standing in the way of Clemson, and Texas A&M impeding the courting of Texas, the league isn't left with very many options.

West Virginia, while weak academically, provides the conference with a storied football program, a geographic lock, and a gateway to some northeastern TV markets. With A&M, Mizzou, and V-Tech pleasing the scholars of the conference, the SEC's football fanatics will finally be allowed to extend an invitation the Mountaineers' way. 

Connecticut

As former conference mates Syracuse and Pitt make their way into the ACC, the Huskies will now be forced to look for a new home as well. The Big East could support them, but the lure of stability and safety in a bigger, stronger league will become too much for this program.

As far as the ACC is concerned, UConn is exactly what they need both academically and athletically. Adding another powerful basketball program to their ranks would be a solid step in the conference's journey towards dominating the hardwood, something the ACC has been trying to do for years.

Furthermore, inviting the Huskies on board would bring in a natural rival for Boston College, help secure any lurking TV networks in the northeast, and give Syracuse and Pitt a former ally and friend to compete against in the top part of the league.

Unfortunately for UConn, however, their addition to the ACC seems hinged on the decision making over in South Bend. Till Notre Dame makes a decision between the ACC and the Big Ten, the Huskies will be staying put.

Optimistically, UConn is a shoo-in for the conference, especially after the loss of Virginia Tech. The big question is who their moving partners will be. 

Cincinnati

With Virginia Tech leaving a gaping hole in the ACC, the conference will quickly pick up UConn as a replacement. Fortunately for some other powerful Big East programs, this also means that the league has two open spots available as their 15th and 16th members.

Standing out the past couple of years, the Bearcats have evolved their football program into one of the best of the Big East. Furthermore, a strong hardwood presence has allowed some deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.

With Notre Dame and Rutgers gone, Cincinnati is the best bet for the ACC. Their academic and athletic presence in the conference fits in with many of its current members, bringing a value to the league that not many other universities possess.

On a financial side, Cincinnati brings in one of the largest cities in the country, not to mention the entirety of southern Ohio. Their addition would give the ACC an inland presence that is desperately needed on a both a recruiting and TV market standpoint. 

Additionally, the Bearcats still own some old Big East rivalries with ACC members Pitt, Syracuse, and Uconn. The competitiveness on the football field as well as the basketball court gives the conference exactly what it's looking for, making Cincinnati a brilliant 15th member for the league. 

Louisville

When it comes down to it, the Cardinals are very similar to the Bearcats. Louisville sits in a prosperous location just south of Cincinnati, owning one of the top up-and-coming football programs in the country.

Furthermore, their established basketball presence will easily allow them to market themselves to the ACC. Rick Pitino has morphed Louisville into one of the top hardwood programs in the nation, competing in the Final Four just this past postseason.

Ever since the departure of West Virginia to the Big 12, the Cardinals have seen the writing on the wall. The Big East is falling apart and their university has to reach solid ground soon if it is to remain a national contender in the multiple sports it offers. The ACC provides all that and more, giving a great geographic fit for Louisville. 

Overall, the conference taking in Cincinnati and Louisville as the 15th and 16th members would be truly solid move for the league. The inland presence, dual-sport competitiveness and rivalry history each brings in should be more than enough to convince the ACC that they belong.

Army

With the Black Knights' long-time rivals Navy leaving independence for the safety of the Big East, Army may just be tempted to do the same. While USMA's main goal is to produce top-notch officers, not a great football program, sticking with the Midshipmen may be the way to go.

Army should receive an invite to head into the Big East as a full member once big shots such as Cincinnati and Louisville make their move out. Once they're gone, USMA has to be secured in order to keep the fledgling league alive.

The Black Knights still hold one of the most storied programs in the nation, making them an ideal target to bring the stumbling Big East back to eight universities.

BYU

Similar to Notre Dame, this religiously-based university will soon understand the dangers of staying on the outside looking in. Independence is a fickle thing in college football and the Cougars would certainly pay the price if they decided to try and remain as such once all the dominoes fall into place.

With the Big 12 falling apart due to the losses of Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia, BYU would be in the perfect situation to revive the conference. Their power as an independent would allow for them to dictate the terms of their arrival which, up till this point, has been the deciding factor in keeping them out.

BYU should certainly see the value in becoming the leader of the Big 12. The conference is more powerful at this point than people would give credit with programs such as TCU holding up the football side of things and Kansas retaining its power on the hardwood. 

Furthermore, the Cougars should most definitely be looking into merging the Big 12 with the other crippled victim of realignment; the Big East. If they can secure that move, the combined league would form a very strong 16 team powerhouse that spans coast-to-coast. Two eight-team divisions would allow for the Big 12/Big East to compete nationally amongst the other "super conferences." 

Big 12/Big East Merger

If all of my predictions were to come true, which is highly unlikely, then the Big East and the Big 12 would be sitting with ten and six teams each, respectively. Without a merger, these conferences would provide nothing to the college football landscape.

The Big East at this point would be composed of South Florida, UCF, SMU, Houston, Memphis, Army, Navy, Boise State, San Diego State and Temple. The Big 12 would sport Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, and BYU.

With a merger, the two conferences would form a extremely competitive 16-team league. The two divisions would be composed of Army, Navy, USF, UCF, Memphis, Temple, Kansas and Kansas State in the East while Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise State and San Diego State hold up the West.

A combined league with strong players such as TCU, Boise State, BYU, and Houston all competing together would allow this mega-conference some leverage in possibly getting into the postseason discussion.