Stainifesto, Part II

Yesterday, Stan Kasten told the more than 5,000 fans gathered at NatsFest 2009 that although the team tried to sign big-name free agents as well as make a big trade or two in the past couple of months, the Nationals were, unless something unlikely happens, going to go to spring training with the roster as currently constituted.

A few, like me, think that’s perfectly okay. Sure, I’d rather have Adam Dunn and Ben Sheets and Orlando Hudson and Bobby Abreu on the team, but that’s not likely to happen.

Well, not Bobby Abreu.

With just three weeks before spring training begins, it's time to focus on who is, as opposed to who isn't, on the roster.

Yesterday, we looked at how the team's current starters might produce offensively, based on their career history over a full season.

This is how it looked:

1B: Nick Johnson: .270-21-81

2B: Ronnie Belliard: .275-13-68

SS: Cristian Guzman: .270-7-54

3B: Ryan Zimmerman: .282-21-94

LF: Josh Willingham: .266-25-85

CF: Lastings Milledge: .263-16-72

RF: Elijah Dukes: .268-26-88

C:  Jesus Flores: .252-12-84

This may surprise some, but these eight guys really could become a potent offense.

Assuming, of course, that they stay upright and remember how to hit a baseball.

The difference, then, between a 70 win and an 80 win season in 2009 lies with the starting rotation.

The Nationals will have only three starters with any real major league experience. Here are their career numbers, again based on their starting the entire season:

1.      John Lannan: 11-17, 3.95

2.      Scott Olsen: 10-12, 4.63

3.      Daniel Cabrera: 11-13, 5.05

Doesn’t look too promising, does it?

Actually, I think it does.

John Lannan pitched much better in 2008 than his record would indicate. For most of the season, he had the lowest run support of any pitcher in the National League.

The former 11th round draft pick in 2005 was one of just a handful of major league starters that allowed less than a hit an inning, and most of the runs he gave up came in clumps, owing to his inexperience at the major league level.

He doesn’t strike out many batters (six per nine innings) and he walks too far many (3.6 per nine innings) for a finesse pitcher. But better control will come with more time on a major league mound.

Lannan's TSN.com scouting report says that the lefty "has a quality arm that relies heavily on pinpoint control. Lannan pitches with a lot of savvy and displays a sound arm capable of logging a major number of innings."

To be successful, they say, he has to be able to miss bats a little more often at the major league level. When his control is off, he doesn't have the sheer stuff to overcome location problems.

That said, John Lannan will be a solid No. 3 starter for the next decade.

Scott Olsen’s career 4.63 ERA is high, especially for a National League pitcher. But like John Lannan, his numbers don’t tell his entire story either.

In two of Olsen’s three years with the Florida Marlins, he had a very respectable ERA. In 2006, his ERA was 4.04. Last year, it was 4.20.

But in 2007, Scott Olsen couldn’t get anyone out, going 10-15 with a horrid 5.81 ERA.

In 2006 and 2008 combined, Olsen allowed 26 fewer hits than innings pitched. In 2007, he gave up 50 more hits than innings pitched.

That's ridiculously bad.

He had lost a few miles per hour on his fastball and couldn’t locate his other pitches.

TSN.com says Olsen is "able to crank it up to the mid-90's with nasty, late movement on his fastball and a strong slider. He is an intense competitor on the mound and works well out of jams."

They believe that Olsen has the potential to be one of the best lefties in the game. To get there, he needs to develop a beter change-up and keep the ball down in the zone.

How good can Scott Olsen be? Well, he is the same age as our beloved John Lannan, yet has 21 more wins in his career.

That good.

Daniel Cabrera is the linchpin in all of this supposition.

The two starters in front of him, Lannan and Olsen, will be counted on to pitch well for the Nationals, and they will. The two starters behind him, rookies Jordan Zimmermann and Colin Balester, aren’t being counted on to any great extent in 2009.

That means that Cabrera could be the difference between that 70 and 80 win season I mentioned earlier.

Cabrera has lost 3-4 mph on his fastball. He was striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings just a couple of years ago.

In 2008, he struck out half that amount.

Even worse, he totally lost his control. He struck out 95 in 2008 while walking 90. How can a major league pitcher be that bad?

The Washington Nationals didn't sign Daniel Cabrera for $2.6 million dollars. They signed the player Daniel Cabrera could be, should be, might be.

TSN.com's scouting report reads like "Dr. Jeckyll & Mr. Hyde," swooning over his ability (Jeckyll) while questioning his desire and baseball sense (Hyde).

TSN says that Cabrera "owns a huge frame with great reach that makes him seem to tower over hitters. Owns a nasty fastball and slider, both with good movement. Can be simply dominant when he gets rolling."

There's the sugar. Now for the molasses:

"As wild and inconsistent as they come. Sometimes totally loses the strike zone. High walk totals hurt him. Can lose focus with both hitters and base-runners."

They describe Cabrera as "an ace-level arm but a back-of-rotation producer."

Will that change? Ever?

Cabrera has a new uniform, a new city and a new ballpark to work with. Sometimes, that makes all the difference in the world for a player with such untapped potential.

He might find himself, but more likely, he'll dazzle us with his ability while getting knocked around pretty regularly.

So what does this all mean?

My totally unscientific prediction for the Nationals’ rotation in 2009:

1. John Lannan: 13-12, 3.55

2. Scott Olsen: 13-10, 3.90

3. Daniel Cabrera: 12-12, 4.75

4. Jordan Zimmermann: 8-12, 4.40

5. Colin Balester: 8-11, 4.35

That’s a total of 54 wins from the Nationals' starters. The average major league team gets about 25-30 wins from their bullpen, so that works out to somewhere between 79-84 wins.

But don't count on these five pitchers finishing the season in the rotation.

Help is on the way.

The Nationals have the No. 1 pick in this June’s amateur draft, and that pick will almost certainly be San Diego State uber-pitcher Steven Strasburg.

Playing for TEAM USA in 2008, Strasburg-the only amateur on the team-played in seven games, going 4-0 with a 0.88 earned run average, striking out 62 and walking seven over 41 innings.

Playing for San Diego State in 2008, Strasburg was second in the nation in strikeouts and third in earned run average and strikeouts per nine innings. He threw a pair of one-hitters and struck out 23 against Utah in Salt Lake City.

Unless something unforseen happens, Strasburg will likely be in the Nationals' rotation come July or August.

I know I’m in the minority, but I am not terribly worried about the 2009 season. The team will be competitive, maybe even above average, and will be chock full of young players who are learning their trade at the major league level and will continue to get better.

And I can live with that.