2012 NBA Mock Draft: Identifying Prospects Who Will Be Late Bloomers
With the 2011-2012 NBA season coming to a close, 14 teams are about to turn their attention to the draft.
These teams have every right to be disappointed with the way their seasons panned out, but they should be excited about the draft. The 2012 draft class is very, very deep. It's so deep, in fact, that teams don't really need to be in the lottery in order to find future stars.
We know players like Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are going to make an instant impact. Quite a few prospects won't make their presence felt until later, after they've had some time to develop.
I'm going to point out a few examples as I move through my latest NBA mock.
Note: this order is based on the standing as of the start of Thursday.
1. Charlotte Bobcats (7-58): Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
The Bobcats desperately need a player with the potential to become a superstar, and that's Anthony Davis. He's an outstanding defensive player and an elite shot-blocker, and his offensive game is better than a lot of people think. He's exactly what the Bobcats need.
2. Washington Wizards (19-46): Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
The Wizards need to add more young talent around John Wall. Adding fellow Kentucky standout Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the ideal pick for them at No. 2. MKG is still developing as a player, but there are a lot of things that he does very well. He likely has an All-Star Game or two in his future.
3. New Orleans Hornets (21-44): Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
The Hornets have needs all over. One of the biggest needs is at power forward, and that's a need Thomas Robinson can fill. I wouldn't describe his game as being pretty, but his strength and energy allow him to do a lot of things. He improved dramatically in 2011-2012, and he's not done improving yet.
4. Sacramento Kings (21-44): Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
The Kings have Tyreke Evans, but he hasn't developed into the superstar the franchise thought he would be. They should go for Bradley Beal no matter what, but drafting him would give them an excuse to try and trade Evans, who needs a change of scenery. In Beal, the Kings would be getting an elite shooting guard talent.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-44): Andre Drummond, C, UConn
Andre Drummond has as much bust potential as any player in the 2012 draft class. He looks like a perfect NBA center, but he didn't always play like one at UConn.
Drummond is a project, plain and simple. What he needs more than anything is time to hone his game. And since he didn't want to do that at UConn, he'll have to do it in the NBA.
The rest of the NBA will be in for some hard times if Drummond ever becomes confident in his abilities, as he could emerge as one of the top big men in the NBA. He has the potential to be even more well-rounded than Dwight Howard.
Cleveland is a great place for Drummond to come into his own. The Cavs are a young team, so Drummond could step in and grow with the rest of his teammates. Down the road, he could be a star, and they could be a legit contender in the Eastern Conference.
6. Toronto Raptors (22-43): Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina
Harrison Barnes is yet another player with bust potential. For all his talent, he was maddeningly inconsistent. Despite that, he strikes me as a player who will be better in the NBA than he was in college. He'll be a welcome addition to a Raptors team that could use a small forward.
7. Portland Trail Blazers (from 22-43 New Jersey): Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina
The Trail Blazers would probably rather draft Tyler Zeller's young brother with this pick, but the older brother will have to do. The Blazers need a center, and Zeller is a polished player who could step in and help right away. His ceiling isn't very high, but he'll be a solid player right away and for the rest of his career.
8. Utah Jazz (from 23-42 Golden State): Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
I've typically had the Jazz going for Kendall Marshall over Damian Lillard because Marshall's distribution talents make him a better fit for what the Jazz are currently working with.
However, it's apparent at this point that Lillard's ceiling is way, way higher than Marshall's. The Jazz should take the best point guard they can get, and that's Lillard.
Lillard is going to step in and start scoring right away. But to be a truly great player, he'll have to improve his floor vision and become more of a distributor.
That will likely take a few years. But once Lillard starts dishing the rock with regularity, the sky will be the limit.
9. Detroit Pistons (24-41): Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
Jared Sullinger is never going to be much better than he is right now. He projects as a solid and steady forward, but not a superstar. He'll fit in well on the Pistons, who could play Sullinger at the 4 and Greg Monroe at the 5.
10. New Orleans Hornets (from 26-39 Minnesota): Terrence Jones, F, Kentucky
I have the Hornets taking a pure power forward at No. 3. They'll have other needs to fill at No. 10, but they shouldn't pass on Terrence Jones if he's there. He'd be a great value pick, and the Hornets could play him at the 3 with Robinson at the 4.
11. Portland Trail Blazers (28-37): Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor
Power forward isn't a huge need in Portland, but at this point, Perry Jones III is in the same boat as Terrence Jones. He'd be a great value pick.
Jones III is a puzzling player. He has everything he needs to be a great player, but he just wasn't a great player at Baylor. It oftentimes seemed like he was flat-out afraid to assert himself.
This will have to change in the NBA. If it doesn't, Jones III is going to be a bust. If he keeps working hard and establishes some consistency, however, he'll be a star.
Playing in Portland, a place where the media pressure is almost nonexistent, would work in Jones' III favor. With the Blazers, he'd become the player he's supposed to be.
12. Milwaukee Bucks (31-34): John Henson, PF, North Carolina
The Bucks need frontcourt help, and John Henson is a guy they could use at power forward right away. Once Henson adds some muscle, he'd be capable of playing center. His offensive game is limited, but he's a very good defender and shot-blocker.
13. Phoenix Suns (33-33): Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina
The Suns are going to lose Steve Nash, who of course is one of the great assist artists in the history of the NBA. Replacing him with an elite assist artist like Kendall Marshall is the best thing the Suns can do in the draft.
14. Houston Rockets (33-32): Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois
The Rockets need a big man, so they should take the best one they can get in the draft. Meyers Leonard is a guy who could step in and play great defense right away. All he needs is an offensive game, and he''ll be a very solid player.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (from 35-30 Utah): Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn
Jeremy Lamb would be a steal for a Timberwolves team that could use a talented shooting guard. He's a very good shooter with athleticism to spare. He and Ricky Rubio would make for a great tandem.
16. Philadelphia 76ers (35-30): Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State
The 76ers are going to need to find some frontcourt depth in the draft. At this point, Arnett Moultrie will be their best option, though he's a player who needs a lot of work. He has the potential to be a very good player, but I see more of an athlete than a basketball player when I look at him.
17. Houston Rockets (from 35-30 New York): Austin Rivers, SG, Duke
Austin Rivers isn't exactly a natural fit in Houston, but the Rockets will be in a position to take the best player available after they take a center. Rivers is a guy they could bring off the bench, ideally developing him into a starting-caliber point guard down the line.
18. Dallas Mavericks (36-29): Terrence Ross, SG, Washington
The Mavericks are going to be on the lookout for guards this offseason. They should look to add one in the draft, and Terrence Ross is a guy they'd be able to use right away. He's got perfect shooting guard size and athleticism, and he can shoot the rock.
19. Orlando Magic (37-28): Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse
The Magic need to add some talent to their backcourt. If he's still available, Dion Waiters would be the perfect pick for them.
Right now, Waiters gets by primarily on his slashing abilities. He moves very quickly, and he can get to the rim as well as any prospect in the 2012 draft class.
What Waiters needs is a consistent perimeter game. Once he develops one, he's going to be an outstanding all-around player, albeit one who is slightly undersized for a 2-guard.
Think Monta Ellis.
20. Denver Nuggets (37-28): Royce White, SF, Iowa State
There are going to be better players for the taking here, but Royce White is a perfect fit for the Nuggets. He's a versatile player who can do a lot of things, including pass. His talents would play well on a Nuggets team that moves the ball better than any team in the NBA.
21. Boston Celtics (38-27): Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor
The Celtics will be on the lookout for a big man in the draft, but they'll stop and take Quincy Miller first, if he falls to them. He'd be a solid value pick at this point, and he's a player who could fill in at the 3 or the 4 for Doc Rivers. The Celtics need depth at both spots.
22. Atlanta Hawks (39-26): Tony Wroten Jr., PG, Washington
The Hawks could use a combo guard to bring off the bench. A guy like Tony Wroten Jr. would be almost too perfect. He was inconsistent at Washington, but few prospects can match his court vision and passing skills. If he improves his shot, he'll be starting material.
23. Boston Celtics (from 40-26 LA Clippers): Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
Okay, now the Celtics can go for a center. Fab Melo will be the best on the board, and his defensive skills will give the Celtics back exactly what they lost when they traded Kendrick Perkins.
Melo will be a great player if he ever learns how to put the ball in the basket. Long-term, the Celtics would need him to get better and better as an offensive player. Their stars will be going their separate ways very soon. They'd need Melo to become one of their new stars.
Down the line, I think the Celtics would have a guy who could average a double-double for a whole season. At this point in the draft, a guy like that is a steal.
24. Memphis Grizzlies (40-25): Jeff Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt
The Grizzlies should look to take the best player available when they're on the clock in the draft. At this point, that would be Jeff Taylor. He's an outstanding athlete, but his basketball skills need a lot of work. Still, a project well worth the risk for the Grizzlies.
25. Cleveland Cavaliers (from 41-24 LA Lakers): Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's
The Cavaliers will be on the lookout for even more frontcourt depth at this point. Moe Harkless will stand out due to his size and athleticism. He'd be lethal in transition next to Kyrie Irving.
26. Indiana Pacers (42-24): Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky
The Pacers could use some backcourt depth, particularly at point guard. Marquis Teague will be the top point guard available at this point in the draft. He needs to grow as a player, but he definitely has talent. He could bring a lot of energy off Indy's bench.
27. Miami Heat (46-19): Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt
The Heat need both depth and talent at center. At this spot in the draft, Festus Ezeli is the best guy they're going to be able to get. He's raw as a basketball player, but he definitely has size and athleticism.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19): Tyshawn Taylor, PG, Kansas
Tyshawn Taylor had an up-and-down career at Kansas, and his play out on the court was highly inconsistent. Nonetheless, he projects as a solid combo guard to bring off the bench. The Thunder are going to need one of those, and Taylor's high ceiling makes him worth a gamble.
29. Golden State Warriors (from 49-16 San Antonio): Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky
The Warriors would love to find a big man or a small forward here, but they're going to be out of luck. Instead, they should go for Doron Lamb. He's more of a shooting guard than a point guard, but he strikes me as a guy who would be good Stephen Curry insurance.
30. Chicago Bulls (49-16): Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State
It's hard to tell exactly what Draymond Green is. He's not a guard, he's not a forward, and he's certainly not a center. He's somewhere in between all of them. That will scare a lot of teams away from Green, but not the Bulls. They're always on the lookout for versatile players, and Green is nothing if not versatile. He'd fit in on the Bulls.
