Fantasy Baseball 2012: April Stats and May Projections for 10 Surprising Stars

Every April, there are MLB players who produce at an elite level despite low expectations.

And entering May, fantasy baseball owners annually ask which of the surprising stars will build upon their early-season success.

I have boldly projected improvement, consistency or regression for these 10 out-of-the-blue phenoms.

After reading, you'll know who can lead your team to a fantasy championship...and who to sell at a high price.

RP Fernando Rodney (Tampa Bay Rays)

April stats: 1-0, 0.87 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 7 SV, 9/2 SO/BB

Fernando Rodney signed with the Tampa Bay Rays as a free agent this past winter. His $2 million contract is thus far looking like a team-friendly deal.

He completed a magnificent month of April with sparkling stats and a firm hold on the closer's role...at least until Kyle Farnsworth returns from a strained elbow.

The 36-year-old Farnsworth is about to begin throwing again. Barring any setbacks, he'll be in the Rays bullpen by mid-May.

Rodney is still the same two-pitch reliever who has always had trouble locating his high-powered fastball.

Whether or not he's pitching the ninth inning, expect him to cool off.

May projections: 1-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6 SV, 9/6 SO/BB

SS Mike Aviles (Boston Red Sox)

April stats: .290/.330/.535, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 18 R, 3 SB

The Boston Red Sox dealt shortstops Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro during the offseason to open up the starting job for Mike Aviles.

In hindsight, those were wise moves on the part of new general manager Ben Cherington.

Aviles is excelling as an everyday player.

His batting average is easily sustainable. The same is true of his runs scored total considering the sluggers who follow him in the Red Sox batting order.

He will continue to be among the most productive middle infielders in the American League.

May projections: .313/.340/.448, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 18 R, 5 SB

SP Drew Smyly (Detroit Tigers)

April stats: 4 G, 1-0, 1.23 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB

Drew Smyly has overwhelmed the American League as a rookie.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, he is the first pitcher in baseball's Modern Era to allow one run or fewer in each of his four appearances in the majors, with all four being starts.

As a result, he leads the AL in earned run average.

Nobody in the Detroit Tigers organization is stunned by Smyly's immediate dominance. He was similarly untouchable at the High-A and Double-A levels in 2011.

The majority of his May outings will be on the road. That should—to some extent—bring him down to Earth.

May projections: 6 G, 3-1, 3.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 39/14 K/BB

1B/3B Edwin Encarnacion (Toronto Blue Jays)

April stats: .322/.376/.678, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 15 R, 4 SB

Veteran fantasy owners could be harboring some bitterness towards designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion.

All signs pointed to a breakout campaign in 2009 after strong 2007 and 2008 seasons with the Cincinnati Reds.

Rather, he disappointed through four months and lost regular playing time. He was moved to the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline and couldn't get back on track.

Better late than never, right?

Encarnacion's power-speed numbers and awesome RBI total rank him third in ESPN's Player Rater.

Though he rarely plays defense, he has earned positional eligibility at first and third base.

He will continue taking his hacks with runners on base if kept in the heart of the order. Just don't count on him to consistently steal bases.

May projections: .255/.310/.549, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 12 R, 1 SB

SP Jason Hammel (Baltimore Orioles)

April stats: 5 G, 3-1, 1.97 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 30/10 SO/BB

Even in a losing effort, Jason Hammel concluded April with an encouraging performance at Yankee Stadium.

He made it through six innings and induced ample ground balls for the fourth time in five starts.

His effectiveness has been tough to explain. I can't help but root for the guy who struggled previously as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies.

Though Hammel will surely stick in the Baltimore Orioles rotation, he'll have to endure a daunting May schedule.

His future matchups include a couple run-ins with the streaking Boston Red Sox and a third look at the Toronto Blue Jays, who should be well adjusted to his style.

If nothing else, Hammel's strikeout rate will head south.

May projections: 5 G, 1-2, 4.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 23/8 SO/BB

SP Lance Lynn (St. Louis Cardinals)

April stats: 4 G, 4-0, 1.33 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 24/6 SO/BB

I'm also forecasting regression for St. Louis Cardinals starter Lance Lynn.

He has been fortunate to draw weak opponents like the Chicago Cubs (twice) and Pittsburgh Pirates. The latter is scoring fewer than three runs per game this season.

Lynn is conveniently aligned to face the Bucs again on May 2 and a trio of non-threatening teams to conclude this coming month.

However, I recommend benching him versus the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves.

He has a strong supporting cast with the Cards that should assist him in compiling more victories.

The main issue will be his WHIP.

May projections: 6 G, 3-1, 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 22/10 SO/BB

2B Jose Altuve (Houston Astros)

April stats: .360/.404/.547, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 15 R, 4 SB

Second baseman Jose Altuve emerged as an offensive weapon as a 17-year-old in rookie ball.

The venues have progressively changed, but the Venezuelan keeps affecting the game with his speed.

Nobody is overlooking the shortest player in Major League Baseball following four fantastic weeks.

Drawn-in fences don't matter much to Altuve, who will never be a home-run hitter.

Triple-friendly parks like Coors Field, Dodger Stadium and his team's own Minute Maid Park are more ideal. And the Houston Astros will have series at all three during May.

May projections: .306/.360/.469, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 18 R, 7 SB

1B Chris Davis (Baltimore Orioles)

April stats: .310/.359/.563, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 9 R, 0 SB

Prior to this season, Chris Davis was the classic example of a "Quadruple-A" player. Despite tearing apart the minor leagues, he couldn't make the necessary adjustments upon being called up.

He whiffed once every three at-bats at the MLB level!

Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter is determined to shield Davis from the challenges of left-handed pitching.

Infrequently facing southpaws should allow Davis' triple slash line to stay strong.

On the other hand, he won't get the same number of RBI opportunities as other first basemen.

May projections: .286/.371/.500, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 8 R, 0 SB

1B Bryan LaHair (Chicago Cubs)

April stats: .390/.471/.780, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 11 R, 0 SB

Everybody—Bryan LaHair, included—knows that Anthony Rizzo will solidify the Chicago Cubs lineup in the future.

But LaHair is reaping the benefits of batting cleanup while the franchise continues to season Rizzo in the Pacific Coast League.

Like Chris Davis from an earlier slide, he starts exclusively against right-handers. That won't be a fantasy concern if he remains baseball's No. 1 slugger against them.

Don't think he'll score many runs given the mediocrity of the Cubbies who bat behind him.

Still, LaHair has found a niche. I imagine he'll be in the middle of the order, even when Rizzo debuts in the Windy City.

May projections: .284/.388/.580, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 11 R, 1 SB

SP Jake Peavy (Chicago White Sox)

April stats: 5 G, 3-1, 1.67 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 33/5 SO/BB, 2 CG

Jake Peavy has already tossed two complete games in one month's time.

The last time he accomplished that in any season was 2006.

The Chicago White Sox were convinced that Peavy would thrive in the American League...whenever he got healthy. It took longer than management hoped, but the former NL Cy Young winner is at last the rock of his club's starting rotation.

Though the soon-to-be 31-year-old won't keep pitching to a sub-1.00 WHIP, he can be trusted to eat innings.

Historically, May is his best month.

May projections: 5 G, 2-2, 2.65 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 41/16 SO/BB, 1 CG

10 Honorable Mentions

Here are another 10 unlikely players thriving in fantasy baseball through April 2012:

Chad Billingsley (Los Angeles Dodgers), A.J. Burnett (Pittsburgh Pirates), Aroldis Chapman (Cincinnati Reds), Kyle Drabek (Toronto Blue Jays), Omar Infante (Miami Marlins), Austin Jackson (Detroit Tigers), Jim Johnson (Baltimore Orioles), Wade Miley (Arizona Diamondbacks), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (New York Mets) and A.J. Pierzynski (Chicago White Sox).

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