NFL Draft: Many Options Await Packers' GM Ted Thompson

Let me start with the disclaimers.  Yes, I realize that the Green Bay Packers went 15-1 last season and won the Super Bowl the previous season.  Yes, I realize they also have a core of players who will contend for the next four or five seasons (at least).   

The reason for the disclaimers, you ask?  Well, as you'll read below, the article offers some pointed opinions on the architect of the current Packers roster, General Manager Ted Thompson, and his strategies to date.  

Since replacing former Head Coach and GM Mike Sherman in 2005, Thompson took the reins of a franchise that was over the salary cap and loaded with aging veterans and then molded it into one of the premier franchises in the NFL.  However, the methods and actions to get the team to this point haven'tt always been popular with the fan base, and leaves more than one fan to scratch their head.   

Fast forward to tonight's first round of the NFL Draft, where the Packers are selecting 28th overall (unfortunately, not 32nd) after a stellar regular season followed by a major letdown in the divisional-round game against the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants.  But for a team who finished 15-1, there are some major holes to plug on defense and this is where Thompson's 'draft-outweights-free-agency' strategy will be put to the test. 

For the Packers, the ultimate need is a pass-rusher.  In 2010, with DE Cullen Jenkins still in the fold, star OLB Clay Matthews piled up 13.5 sacks and helped the Pack to the title.  However, without a strong pass-rushing presence opposite Matthews, opponents regularly neutralized No. 52 with double-teams and he wound up with only six sacks in 2011.   

Granted, sacks don't tell everything, and Matthews was stronger against the run in 2011, but the difference was palpable on a weekly basis when opposing QBs seemed to have all day in the pocket to find the open receiver.  As a result, Green Bay's defensive unit gave up the most passing yards in regular season history, turned many blowouts into unnecessary close calls, and, most importantly, couldn't keep the Giants passing attack in check during the playoffs.   

To get the defense back on track, Thompson will need to get first-round help for Matthews and the defense in 2012.  First round projections are littered with DEs and OLBs that could fit the Packers' 3-4 defense.  The question now is who, and when, to grab that player?  Does Thompson stand pat and take the best available pass-rusher at #28?  Does he trade up for better talent?  Does he try to finagle two first-round selections?  Or, does he stick with the "best player available" approach and trade out of the pick if the BPA at No. 28 is someone at a position that doesn't address a strong need right now?

Based on most recent projections, if Green Bay stands pat, they might have their choice of Courtney Upshaw (OLB, Alabama), Shea McClellin (OLB, Boise State), Dont'a Hightower (LB, Alabama), Whitney Mercilus (DE/OLB, Illinois) and Andre Branch (DE/OLB, Clemson).  If Green Bay can trade up to the top 15 picks, they could find themselves in the market for Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina), Quinton Coples (DE, UNC) or Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College).  However, what is the best course of action here?   

In one of Thompson's most successful drafts to date, he traded back into the first round in 2009 to snag Matthews after using his early first-round pick to take DT B.J. Raji.  Also, in the third round, he snagged OG T.J. Lang, which has to be one of the best drafts in club history.  The question now is, should Thompson be looking at the same strategy that he employed in 2009?  In a word, "absolutely." The reasons for this are two-fold:

• Due to the general lack of play-makers on defense, especially after S Nick Collins' release this week, the Packers need help from more than one immediate-impact player.
• With the offense performing at a prolific pace, the window of opportunity is here for multiple Super Bowl runs and it shouldn't be compromised by a leaky defense.

In a perfect world, the Packers would use their No. 28 overall pick and find a way to trade back into the first round (whether it be ahead or after their No. 28 pick), and grab a DE/OLB and S Harrison Smith from Notre Dame.  This would immediately plug two holes and give the defense its teeth back.   

An alternate solution might have been to make an offer for recently-traded CB Asante Samuel, who was shipped from Philadelphia to Atlanta for only a seventh-round pick.  In this scenario, the Packers could have moved Charles Woodson from CB to S, which he had reportedly offered to do when Green Bay's name got thrown in the mix for then-FA CB Nnamdi Asomougha last offseason.  With the cap space freed up this week from the releases of Collins and OT Chad Clifton, this might have been a move that alleviated the need to maneuver much during the draft—however, the Falcons sealed the deal very quickly.   

Now time for the reality check: this isn't the way Thompson normally operates.  He has his own theories and doesn't mind doing the unpopular thing amongst fans.  Does it produce results?  Yes.  Does it always make sense at the time?  No.   

Therefore, don't be surprised if Thompson goes against the grain and sticks with his one and only first-round selection and uses it in one of the following three ways:

• Drafts Harrison Smith.  Given Collins' departure and Charlie Peprah's inability to cover the big play over the top, Thompson might see this as a higher priority since the DE role did get a slight reinforcement with the Anthony Hargrove signing last month.
• Draft C Peter Konz.  With C Scott Wells departing for the St. Louis Rams in March, Thompson actually entered the free-agent market and landed veteran C Jeff Saturday on a two-year deal.  However, at age 37, year two (let alone all of year one) is a lock and the center position is an important cog in Green Bay's offensive machine.
• Trades back to a later pick.  As stated before, if the best-player-available at No. 28 is at a position of little need, Thompson isn't shy about moving back.  This strategy could be employed if any combination of the DEs/OLBs above start to fall in the draft.

In my opinion, if Thompson is hell-bent on avoiding the big ticket players in free agency, then he needs to make sure he is landing starting-calibre talent early and often.  This is exacerbated today because of the aforementioned window of opportunity the club has right now.  Another strong draft like 2009 could yield the Packers multiple Super Bowl appearances before the current core of players moves on.   

To accomplish this, Thompson needs to use the ammo at his disposal (12 picks, although only eight are tradable this year) and fill the two glaring needs on defense.   Fortunately, the anticipation comes to an end in just a few hours and Packers fans will see Thompson's plan put into action.  

Now that you've heard my opinion, please share yours in the comments section.  What should the Packers do in the draft?  What should they not do?  Any particular rookies-to-be that you're hoping to see in a Packers uniform next season?  As always, thanks for your time!