MLB Prospects: Top 15 American League Central Prospects

With Prospect Pipeline's Top 50 now in place, it's time to take a deeper look at these prospects through a different lens. 

As I continue to put together prospect scouting reports for every organization, I'll also be ranking prospects by both position and tools. However, today I will deviate from said assessments to offer my thoughts on the top 15 prospects residing in the American League Central.

The AL Central houses many of baseball's finest prospects, including six players who appear in the overall Top 50. Even though I did consider each player's current season when creating this ranking, I'd be foolish to put too much stock into such a small sample. At the same time, when a prospect is producing while showing improvement in specific facets of the game, there's something to be said for such a performance.

Here is a look at the American League Central's top 15 prospects.

15. Trayce Thompson, OF, Chicago White Sox

Position: OF 

Height/Weight: 6’4”/200

DOB: 3/15/1991 

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2009, second round (HS—Santa Margarita, CA)

2011 Stats:

Low-A: .241/.329/.457, .216 ISO, 113 wRC+ (597 PA)

2012 Stats:

High-A: .234/.350/.469, 8 XBH, 20 K/12 BB (18 G) 

Overview: Thompson has some of the best raw power in the minor leagues thanks to an ability to drive the ball with backspin carry to all fields. However, his power is a product of a lengthy swing, which has led to exceptionally high strikeout rates. 

He religiously chases breaking balls and lacks a feel for the strike zone. His defense in center is tolerable, although he does possess a strong arm.  He’ll continue to play center for the time being, but his combination of raw power and arm strength profile better in right field than center.

While Thompson’s struck out 20 times in his first 18 games to begin the 2012 season, he’s also drawn a healthy amount of walks. Interestingly, he has especially struggled against left-handed pitching, as he’s 2-for-22 with seven strikeouts.

ETA: 2015

14. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins

Position: OF 

Height/Weight: 6’2”/185

DOB: 10/2/1989

Bats/Throws: S/R

Drafted/Signed: 2008, first round (HS—Long Beach, CA)

2011 Stats:

High-A: .242/.354/.366, .124 ISO, 103 wRC+ (528 PA)

2012 Stats:

Double-A: .257/.341/.471, 8 XBH, 33 TB, 21 K/10 BB (20 G)

Overview: Signed out of high school, Hicks has developed slower than anticipated, though his tools are as prominent as ever.  In center field, his double-plus arm ranks as one of the best in the Minors and could serve him well in right field if he ever hits for enough power.  His above-average speed gives him considerable range, and he plays the position aggressively.

A switch hitter, Hicks is considerably better from his natural right side, as his left-handed swing has wasted movement and a long bat path.  Despite his high strikeout rates, he’s always maintained the ability to coax walks.  He has slightly above-average raw power that could one day yield 15-20 home runs, while his hit tool may always be dependent upon his contact rate.

After three seasons at Class-A, Hicks has responded well to a Double-A assignment to begin the season.  The power he’s displayed—three home runs in 20 games—has been particularly encouraging, as Hicks hit only five home runs in 443 at-bats in 2011.

ETA: 2014

13. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals

Position: LHP

Height/Weight: 6’4”/185

DOB: 7/1/1989

Bats/Throws: L/L

Drafted/Signed: 2008, first round (HS—Newhall, CA)

2011 Stats:

Triple-A: 150.2 IP, 5.32 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 7.71 K/9, 4.12 BB/9

2012 Stats:

Triple-A: 21.2 IP, 4.57 ERA,, 3.66 FIP, 7.48 K/9, 4.15 BB/9 (4 G)

Overview: Montgomery stands 6’4” and has a projectable, lean frame with length, and repeats his delivery very well. He throws across his body a tad, but it’s not bad and only adds to his deception.

He has an easy 60 fastball now that reaches the mid-90s, and it has a chance at few more ticks, which would boost it into the 65-70 range and make it one of the better left-handed fastballs in baseball. His best secondary offering is a changeup that works in the low-80s—it’s a 60 today and a 65 at its peak. His breaker has a ways to go, but will be a solid average pitch by Montgomery’s mid-20s.

He struggled with his command in 2011, which turned out to be a setback campaign for the southpaw. He’s back at Triple-A to iron things out and has had mixed results to begin the season.

ETA: 2012

12. Joe Benson, OF, Minnesota Twins

Position: OF

Height/Weight: 6’1”/205

DOB: 3/5/1988

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2006, second round (HS—Joilet Catholic, IL)

2011 Stats:

Double-A: .285/.388/.495, 13 SB, .210 ISO, 141 wRC+ (472 PA)

MLB: .239/.270/.352, .113 ISO, 64 wRC+ (74 PA)

2012 Stats:

Triple-A: .169/.296/.220, 2 XBH, 3 SB, 19 K/10 BB (17 G)

Overview: Despite his gradual ascent up the Twins’ organizational ladder, Benson is still a five-tool player with 20/20 potential. His speed and plus arm strength are suitable for all three outfield spots, while his natural instincts generate above-average range in all directions.

The only aspect of Benson’s game that impedes his overall progress is his inability to make consistent contact. He’s posted three 100-plus strikeout seasons, although he did coax a career high 56 walks in 2011.  If he can learn to manipulate counts in his favor and lay off subpar off-speed offerings, Benson could pan out to be a valuable big league outfielder. 

Because he was promoted from Double-A to the Majors late last season, Benson never received seasoning at Triple-A.  Therefore, the Twins assigned him to Triple-A to open the 2012 season, where he will continue to refine his plate discipline. 

ETA: 2012

11. Nestor Molina, RHP, Chicago White Sox

Position: LHP

Height/Weight: 6’1”/180

DOB: 1/9/1989

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2006, Venezuela

2011 Stats:

High-A: 108.1 IP, 2.58 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 9.55 K/9, 1.16 BB/9

Double-A: 22 IP, 0.41 ERA, 0.47 FIP, 13.50 K/9, 0.82 BB/9

2011 Stats:

Double-A: 23.2 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 6.08 K/9, 0.76 BB/9 (4 G)

Overview: Acquired from the Blue Jays this past offseason for closer Sergio Santos, Molina (like Santos) is a former infielder turner pitcher.  After pitching exclusively out of the bullpen, Molina made a smooth transition to the starting rotation in 2011.

While he doesn’t have one specific pitch that grades out above the rest, all of his pitches are at least above-average.  He works the black with his 88-93 mph fastball that he both cuts and sinks on occasion.  His breaking ball is a curve that has late sweeping action when he remembers to get on top.  His splitter has developed considerably over the last season, and he’s become more comfortable throwing it in any count.  Beyond that, Molina also features a changeup, though it’s his least advanced offering.

The White Sox are high on Molina, so if the time presents itself later in the season, it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s promoted to make a start or two.  He profiles as a solid mid-rotation starter—something the White Sox will need in the upcoming years.

ETA: 2013

10. Drew Smyly, LHP, Detroit Tigers

Position: LHP

Height/Weight: 6’3”/190

DOB: 6/13/1989

Bats/Throws: L/L

Drafted/Signed: 2010, second round (Arkansas)

2011 Stats:

High-A: 80.1 IP, 2.58 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 8.63 K/9, 2.35 BB/9

Double-A: 45.2 IP, 1.18 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 10.45 K/9, 2.96 BB/9

2012 Stats:

MLB: 16 IP, 1.13 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, 8.44 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 99% LOB (3 G)

Overview: As he demonstrated during his time at Arkansas, Smyly is adept to attacking hitters with his 87-93 mph two-seam fastball with arm-side run, which aids the effectiveness of his other offerings.  He hides the ball well throughout his delivery, and his deceptive arm action allows him to control the inner-third of the plate to both sides.

The left-hander features two breaking balls—a curveball and slider—that have been equally effective at times and offer a different look as he works deeper into the game. Smyly also throws a hard, mid-80s cutter that neutralizes right-handed hitters.

He was so impressive during spring training that he broke camp as the team’s fifth starter.  In his three big league starts, Smyly has shown excellent poise, while his stuff has held some of the American League’s best offenses in check.  

ETA: 2012

9. Eddie Rosario, 2B, Minnesota Twins

Position: 2B

Height/Weight: 6’/170

DOB: 9/28/1991

Bats/Throws: L/R

Drafted/Signed: 2010, Puerto Rico

2011 Stats:

Rookie: .337/.397/.670, .333 ISO, 177 wRC+ (298 PA) 

2011 Stats:

Low-A: .310/.417/.437, 7 XBH, 14 RBI, 6 SB, 11 K/13 BB (20 G)

Overview: The co-MVP of the Appalachian League in 2011, Rosario led the level in nearly every offensive category.  A left-handed hitter, he possesses a smooth, fluid swing that generates a surprising amount of power.  He has quick wrists and takes a direct path to the ball, which has also allowed him to hit for average.

Rosario has above-average speed, however, his ability as a base-stealer needs considerable development. His overall athleticism prompted the Twins to move the promising prospect from center field to second base this season, and early results have been promising.

Not only has he handled the new position well, Rosario has thrived.  Given that his ability to hit for both average and power will be a premium at his new position, Rosario could rank right behind Miguel Sano in the next Twins’ system ranking.  

ETA: 2014

8. Addison Reed, RHP, Chicago White Sox

Position: RHP                       

Height/Weight: 6'4", 215

DOB: 12/27/1988         

Bats/Throws: L/R

Drafted/Signed: 2010, third round (San Diego State)

2011 Stats

Single-A: 8 IP, 1.13 ERA, 12.38 K/9, 1.13 BB/9

High-A: 28.1 IP, 1 SV, 1.59 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 12.39 K/9, 1.27 BB/9

Double-A: 20.2 IP, 2 SV, 0.87 ERA, 1.02 FIP, 14.37 K/9, 2.61 BB/9

Triple-A: 21.1 IP, 2 SV, 1.27 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 11.81 K/9, 1.27 BB/9

MLB: 7.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.93 FIP, 1.70 xFIP, 14.73 K/9, 1.23 BB/9

2012 Stats:

MLB: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 10 K/2 BB (9 G)  

Overview: Reed, who was drafted in the third round of the 2010 draft out of San Diego State, has an electric arm with a legitimate out pitch. A closer in college, the 6'4", 215-pounder breezed through the minors in 2011.

He began the year at Low-A Kannapolis and finished the season in the White Sox bullpen. In his 78.1 innings across four minor league levels last season, Reed posted a 1.26 ERA and 111/14 K/BB ratio.

His fastball and slider combination from a three-quarter arm slot is what one looks for in a closer—and he possesses above-average command of both pitches. He has a changeup, though he will likely keep it on the back burner given the effectiveness of his two primary pitches.

In a year where the White Sox will almost assuredly not compete for a division title, I expect Reed to receive the bulk of the save opportunities in 2012. Although Matt Thornton will probably be named the team's closer as big-league camp winds down, Reed has been groomed to close games since college. He has the stuff and experience to be a front-line closer by the end of the 2012 season.

ETA: 2012

7. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Position: RHP

Height/Weight: 6’2”/175

DOB: 3/27/1990

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2008, first round (HS—Highland, IL)

2011 Stats:

High-A: 78.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 2.15 FIP, 11.83 K/9, 2.53 BB/9

Double-A: 68.2 IP, 4.72 ERA, 5.09 FIP, 7.08 K/9, 2.88 BB/9

2012 Stats:

Double-A: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 25 K/6 BB (4 G)

Overview: Odorizzi’s fastball reaches 96 mph and sits at 93-94, and his breaking ball is a sledge when in the zone. His command of it needs to improve, but he has a couple of years still before it absolutely must be reliable.

He throws a slider and change as well, but they are behind the fastball and curveball and will be no better than 50s. Still, Odorizzi is a strike-thrower with a projectable athletic frame, and results that suggest he will be a consistent No. 2 at the worst.

Odorizzi's back at Double-A to start the 2012 season, but he may not be there for long.  In his latest start on Monday, the right-hander tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing four hits and one walk while striking out a team-record 11 batters.

ETA: 2013

6. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers

Position: 3B 

Height/Weight: 6'4"/195

DOB: 3/4/1992 

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2010 – First round (Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL)

2011 Stats:

Single-A: 312/.367/.436, .124 ISO, 129 wRC+ (562 PA)

2012 Stats:

High-A: .394/.432/.530, 7 XBH, 14 K/5 BB (17 G)

Overview: A first-round selection in 2010, Castellanos is hands down the Tigers’ top hitting prospect. After an anemic start to the 2011 season at Low-A, he went on to slash .312/.367/.435 while playing in 135 games. 

Even though he hit only seven home runs, the right-hander did tally 36 doubles. Considering his ability to barrel up the baseball, adding a little loft to his swing should yield more home runs. He struck out 130 times compared to 45 walks, so he’ll need to improve that differential this season.

Castellanos is still learning how to play third base, but his range, instincts and above-average arm work well there. He’s tall (6'4") with wiry strength and lots of room to fill out.

After a slow start last season, he's off to a blistering start at High-A in 2012.

ETA: 2015

5. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

Position: SS                       

Height/Weight: 5'11", 175 lbs. 

DOB: 11/14/1993            

Bats/Throws: S/R

Drafted/Signed: 2011, first round (Monteverde Academy, FL)

2011 Stats:

Low-A: .316/.350/.316 (20 PA)

2012 Stats:

Low-A: .274/.337/.405, 7 XBH, 6 SB, 11 K/8 BB (19 G)

Overview: One of the most promising young shortstops in the game, Lindor will be on the fast track to the major leagues once the 2012 season is underway. The best defensive shortstop out of the 2011 draft, he has drawn rave reviews for his athleticism and fluidity at short. The combination of his excellent range and plus arm have the Indians convinced that Lindor will be able to stick at shortstop for a long, long time.

A switch-hitter, Lindor’s offensive value will come from his ability to hit for a solid average and hopefully get on base at a decent clip. He will never hit for much power, but he has enough pop to produce 20-plus doubles. Despite being just a slightly above-average runner, Lindor projects to steal 20 bases annually due to his instincts and high baseball IQ.

After briefly appearing at Low-A Lake County after signing, Lindor is off to a hot start there to begin the season.  He’s more advanced than most of the prep draft picks, and should finish his first professional season at High-A

ETA: 2014

4. Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals

Position: OF

Height/Weight: 6-4/180

DOB: 8/3/1992

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2011, first round (Gardner Edgerton HS, KS)

2011 Stats: DNP

Overview: Any conversation about five-tool prospects isn’t complete without referencing Bubba Starling. Heavily recruited for every sport out of high school, it cost the Royals $7.5 million to lure him away from a scholarship to be the Nebraska quarterback.

At 6'4", 205-pounds, Starling is strong, athletic and has already flashed double-plus power. He should hit for some average in the future, although his true value is rooted in his power-speed combination.

Also a standout pitcher, Starling has been clocked in the mid-90s off the bump, and throws absolute pills from the outfield.

As it is with Bryce Harper, it’s difficult to assign a ceiling to Starling. However, there’s no denying that it’s one of the highest in all of baseball.  

ETA: 2015

3. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Position: RHP

Height/Weight: 6'5", 210

DOB: 5/21/1991            

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2009, first round (Westminster Christian Academy HS, MO)

2011 Stats:

Double-A: 113.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 7.13 K/9, 2.53 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9

Triple-A: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 2.16 FIP, 10.38 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9

MLB: 12.2 IP, 8.53 ERA, 6.03 FIP, 4.73 xFIP, 5.68 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 2.13 HR/9

2012 Stats:

High-A: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 K, 2 BB (1 G)

Overview: The ninth overall selection in the 2009 draft, Turner made three starts for the Tigers in 2011 as a 20-year-old. Although the results could have been better, the right-hander’s stuff was impressive, as was his overall polish.

Turner’s 6'5" frame allows him to pound the zone with a heavy, sinking fastball that registers in the low 90s. He struggles at times with the command of his curveball, but it’s still a big-time hammer. Turner’s changeup is only an average offering as of now, but he does throw it with fastball-like arm speed.

He probably won’t be a strikeout pitcher in the major leagues, but he has enough movement and deception to induce plenty of weak contact. It appeared as though Turner would contend for the final spot in the Tigers’ rotation, but he has been shut down for the time being after experiencing discomfort in his shoulder.

After experiencing discomfort in his shoulder during spring training, Turner was shut down temporarily and only recent returned to action.  The Tigers will ease their top prospect back to the upper-minors, and once he’s deemed fully healthy, Turner should compete for a spot in the big-league rotation.

ETA: 2012

2. Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City Royals

Position: OF                       

Height/Weight: 6'3", 205

DOB: 12/10/1990            

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2009, third round (Wesleyan Academy, NC)

2011 Stats:

Double-A: .254/.353/.393, 9 SB, .138 ISO, 104 wRC+ (416 PA)

2012 Stats:

Double-A: .319/.382/.623, 11 XBH, 13 RBI, 3 SB, 23 K/7 BB

Overview: A lot of writers penalized Myers for his lack of power in 2011, which stemmed from a knee injury and subsequent infection that limited his ability to drive through the baseball. However, his .360/.481/.674 slash line in the Arizona Fall League indicates that he has regained his power.

Since entering the minor leagues in 2009, Myers has absolutely raked at every level—excluding his 2011 campaign. He has quick wrists and outstanding bat control that allows him to effortlessly drive the ball to right field. By the time he makes his debut, Myers should have 20-plus home run potential and the ability to be a .310-.320 hitter.

His plate discipline is advanced beyond his years—like teammate Eric Hosmer—and he’s comfortable hitting in any count. He’ll be nothing more than an average corner outfielder, although the plus arm that made him an elite catching prospect plays best in right. 

Now fully healthy, Myers is in classic form at Double-A Arkansas to begin the 2012 season.  With five home runs already under his belt, Myers is one of the Texas League’s top hitters.

ETA: 2012

1. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins

Position: 3B                       

Height/Weight: 6'3", 195

DOB: 5/11/1993           

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2009, Dominican Republic

2011 Stats:

Rookie: .292/.352/.637, .345 ISO, 151 wRC+ (293 PA)

2012 Stats:

Low-A: .271/.407/.614, 11 XBH, 18 RBI, 26 K/15 BB (20 G)

Overview: Outside of Bryce Harper, Sano is the best power-hitting prospect in baseball. He has the ideal combination of quick wrists and explosive weight transfer that allows him to effortlessly jump the yard to all fields. If his plate discipline continues to improve, Sano, who turns 20 in May, could hit for a decent average down the road.

He can be a wreck on defense at times, mostly in his actions to and through the baseball, which suggests an eventual transition to first base. For now the Twins will move forward with Sano as their third baseman of the future.

Sano has been punishing Midwest League pitching to begin the year, as he leads the league in RBI (18), walks (18), and is tied for the home run lead (six).

ETA: 2014