2012 NFL Draft: Analyzing Greg Cosell's AFC East Picks in His Mock Draft

NFL Films guru Greg Cosell is one of the best football minds around, so when he dropped his mock draft, he dropped knowledge along with it.

His picks are based on hours of film study, and he concludes based on schematic fit as well as team need.

There were plenty of surprises and interesting picks in his full first-round mock, but here are the AFC East picks and my analysis of his selections for each team.

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Cosell says: "If you have a top 15 NFL quarterback (give or take) you can compete for division titles and by extension, championships. If you don’t, it’s very difficult. Think about the top 15 in the NFL right now, and you’ll realize it’s a fair statement. ...In fact, over time, I believe [Tannehill] has a chance to be significantly better than Top 15."

My slant: The cautionary tale that's been preached about Tannehill refers mainly to the fact that he won't contribute much for an NFL offense in his first year. But that's not Cosell's primary concern. He sees a great career trajectory for Tannehill that has him as one of the top NFL quarterbacks. How long will it take him to get there? It's tough to say.

While many think it will take him upwards of a year before he's NFL ready, Cosell has long liked Tannehill's future. You have to wonder, though, if the Dolphins might have better luck finding a franchise quarterback in next year's crop.

10. Buffalo Bills: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Cosell says: "Blackmon fits very well in Chan Gailey’s multiple formation passing game. Gailey runs a fast-break offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the ball out quickly like a quarterback version of a point guard. Many will argue left tackle, and Matt Kalil is still available in my mock, but in Buffalo’s offense, I believe a receiver like Blackmon, with his size, alignment versatility and excellent run-after-catch ability, is a more necessary component than a left tackle."

My slant: We've often seen that the Bills don't necessarily go with the best available player, but instead pick the best available player at a position of biggest need. This scenario gives the Bills the best of both worlds. Michael Floyd came off the board at No. 9 in Cosell's mock, leaving Blackmon as the best receiver and best player available. 

For the Bills, the key is getting the ball out quickly, and Blackmon's run-after-catch ability will help the Bills get big plays even when there are none to be had in the deep passing game.

But the big plays will be necessary at some point. The Bills really lacked threats at wide receiver down the stretch, with Fitzpatrick's yards per attempt plummeting from 7.6 in the first seven games to 6.2 in the final nine games. A big-play threat like Blackmon would be an instant shot of adrenaline for the Bills offense.

16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

Cosell says: "There’s no question the Jets need to rush the quarterback to implement one critical element of Rex Ryan’s team profile: a dominant turnover-fueled defense. ...Upshaw transitions best as a 3-4 OLB. When I studied him, he reminded me in some ways of Steelers LB Lamar Woodley: similar size, similar body type. In addition, Upshaw showed the natural strength to be an effective power rusher. There were also snaps in which he bent the edge and closed with speed. Upshaw also has the versatility to put his hand on the ground and rush from a 3 point stance."

My slant: With just 35 sacks as a team in 2011 and an aging linebacking corps, the Jets have every reason to target a versatile guy like Upshaw, who compares favorably to Calvin Pace. He's not going to tally double-digit sacks on a consistent basis, but what he will give the Jets is a movable piece, a physical presence in their front and a hard worker.

He may transition best as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but he has played all over the defense for Nick Saban—at inside linebacker as well as from a three-point stance, as Cosell points out. More than just a stud pass-rusher, the Jets need someone who can cause havoc up front and put pressure on an opposing offensive linemen without the help of a blitz, even if he'll likely have the help of a blitz more often than not in Rex Ryan's defense.

27. New England Patriots: Shea McClellin, DE/OLB, Boise State

Cosell says: "He was one of my original diamonds in the rough, but now, as we approach the draft, everyone seems to be acknowledging what has always been there on the tape. He showed the ability to get low and bend the edge as a pass rusher. He also had an instinctive feel as an inside rusher for getting skinny, and getting through small cracks. He shed blocks and made plays in the run game. He was a smooth change of direction athlete with excellent balance and body control. My sense is he will get better in the NFL with a chance to be a dynamic edge pass rusher. He’s not as purely explosive as Clay Matthews, but I see some similarities as McClellin matures and develops."

My slant: The Patriots have been projected to take a pass-rusher in the first round for years; could this be the time they finally pull the trigger?

It's always tough to predict with this position, because it's all about projections. The players have mainly played 4-3 defensive end, as was the case for McClellin. Where does he project in the NFL? According to B/R NFL editor Michael Schottey, he could be plugged anywhere in the defensive front seven, similar to Brian Cushing.

McClellin began the process ranked somewhere between the second round and early third round, but with comparisons to both Cushing and Matthews, the future is bright enough for McClellin to warrant a first-round pick.

31. New England Patriots: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Cosell says: "Brockers is a development player with great size, long arms and natural power. When he stayed low and played with leverage he could be dominating. He also flashed quick and violent hands. Are there similarities down the road to Richard Seymour, clearly a better player coming out of college than Brockers? Will Brockers have the explosive strength and leverage to win the battle for the neutral zone? Will he establish a new line of scrimmage? The key for Bill Belichick is how impactful that kind of player is for other defenders. I can see Belichick looking at Brockers and seeing a raw, less refined Seymour; a piece of fresh clay that he can mold."

My slant: If these are the two picks for the Patriots, the entirety of New England could collapse on itself from the earthquake of noise that will be every Patriots fan cheering at the top of their lungs.

Two big additions to the front seven would give the Patriots the long-term solutions they've sought since the Richard Seymour and Willie McGinest departures.

Brockers left after just his sophomore year at LSU, leading Cosell to the raw label. But at 6'5" and 322 pounds of pure muscle, he's just the kind of five-technique prospect the Patriots would love to put in Seymour's old role. He may not be an idea pass-rushing defensive linemen, but he can command the kind of double teams that work to the benefit of the 3-4 scheme as a whole.

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