Is Brandon McCarthy Part of Oakland A's Future or Just Another Trade Chip?

History shows that under general manager Billy Beane, Oakland Athletics fans should never grow too comfortable with any individual player, and starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy is no exception.

Will he stick around in green and gold for awhile, or does pitching well make him a candidate for the annual Beane-led barrage of trades?

Looking at a decade's worth of starting pitchers who have found success in the bay, four have stuck around while a dozen have been shipped out.

Maybe McCarthy will be different.

Here's a look at what he provides the A's and a comparison to similar, former Athletics.

Player profile: Brandon McCarthy

McCarthy turns 29 this season.

He put together a quality 2011 with nine wins to nine losses, a 3.32 ERA and a 1.131 WHIP. The highlight: 123 strikeouts to 25 walks.

In four games so far in 2012, he's 0-2 with two no decisions. His ERA is 3.60—not terrible, but it needs work. He's struck out 14 and walked four.

McCarthy is on a one-year contract worth $4.275 million.

He's already "reinvented" himself once. At this age, it's likely what you see from McCarthy is what you get. He's not going to become much better than he is now.

That being said, McCarthy won't be the next Trevor Cahill or Gio Gonzalez.

Trading McCarthy won't land four top-tier prospects.

However, he is a cheap enough option for late-season contenders suffering from injuries to starters or those in dire need of depth at the end of the rotation.

Brandon McCarthy compared to similar, non-traded pitchers

McCarthy's case is similar to Ben Sheets'.

Sheets pitched well throughout his career then suffered an injury that sidelined him for one year. At 31 years old, he hoped to rebound with the A's, much like McCarthy is in the process of doing (rebound that is, not rehab).

Sheets lasted 20 games. He pitched to a 4-9 record and was injured once more. He never pitched in baseball again.

Unfortunately, it's hard to tell if Sheets would have been traded had he been successful.

Justin Duchscherer is another example.

"Duke" spent most of his career as a reliever before transitioning to the rotation in 2008. At 30 years old he had his most success, winning 10 games with an ERA of 2.54.

McCarthy is similarly finding success nearing his 30s.

The following season, Duchscherer sat out the entire year due to injury. In fact, injuries would plague the remainder of his career.

Dallas Braden has remained with the squad year after year.

Braden turns 28 this season and is making $3.35 million. He's consistently hovered around a .500 win-loss average. He is the closest resemblance to McCarthy right now.

And like Sheets and Duchscherer, Braden's missed a ton of time as well.

Brandon McCarthy compared to similar, traded pitchers

At 27 years old—consistently pitching more than 15 wins with an average ERA of around 3.75—Mark Mulder was traded in the 2004-05 offseason.

Tim Hudson was traded the same offseason at 28 years old. He also averaged about 15 wins with a 3.30 ERA.

Dan Haren left with 14 wins a season and a 3.60 ERA at 26 years old.

The Philadelphia Phillies acquired 27-year-old Joe Blanton with his 5-12 record and 4.96 ERA.

When healthy, Rich Harden won 10 games a year. His ERA in seven seasons with Oakland was 3.65.

The list of mid- to upper-20-year-old starting pitchers with 10-15 wins and around a 3.75 ERA who were traded out of Oakland goes on.

It's worth mentioning that none of them made more than $5 million per season as an Athletic.

Conclusion: trade bait or part of the future?

It appears Brandon McCarthy's only shot at staying in Oakland will happen if he gets injured—or he pitches so bad no one wants him.

Otherwise, as history shows, if he pitches well he's as good as gone. The fact that he's on a one-year deal will reduce the amount of teams interested, but in a pinch, ball clubs get desperate.

McCarthy's situation likely plays out like Blanton's.

The Philadelphia Phillies—chasing the postseason—snagged Blanton to upgrade the pitching staff. Though he had a poor record and a high ERA, he rebounded and became an integral part of the Phillies' 2008 World Series win.

McCarthy is solid. His record may not show it, but he has above-average stuff that can benefit a team looking for help in the rotation toward the end of the season.

There will be a team that overlooks his record and ERA and calls about McCarthy. It seems to be an extremely high probability Oakland will take that call.

Sayonara McCarthy.

Here's hoping the two prospects you bring in return can stay a little while themselves.