High Injury Risk–National League

Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves.  You can’t question the guy’s talent, but in the last four years Jones has failed to play more than 134 games in a season, and twice played 110 or less.  Jones won the NL batting title last season, so he still is producing at a high level but you can count on him being out at least once during the year.  In fact, in 2008 Jones left his owners high and dry when it counted most, as he was limited to pinch hitting in the last two weeks of the year.  With his great batting average and slightly above average power, Chipper is a good pick, but his history of injury will cause him to fall in drafts.  He will turn 37 early on in the season, so you can only expect that trend to continue.

Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs.  His stuff is so electric that he can be the best pitcher in baseball.  However, it is absolutely no surprise that he ended up on this list.  Harden has only had one season in which he made 30 starts, however, he did enjoy his healthiest season in years in 2008.  Harden went from late round sleeper pick to one of the top fantasy point scorers in the game last year.  He helps you in all pitching categories (except saves obviously), and really excels at strikeouts.  I know he was healthy for almost the entire season in 2008, but there is already word that he won’t pitch in the World Baseball Classic because of shoulder problems, so if that isn’t a giant red flag, I don’t know what is.  In fact, I think that will be his new nickname; Rich “Red Flag” Harden.

Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins.  Four years ago Hermida burst on the fantasy scene when he hit a grand slam in his first at bat.  Fast forward to 2009 and we are still waiting for him to realize the potential that had us all drooling back then.  Part of the problem is he has never been able to consistently stay on the field.  Hermida has the tools to be a solid power hitter who also can hit .280+.  In 2008 he played 142 games, 20 more than his previous career high.  If he is ever able to play a full season he is a nice third or fourth outfield option, but until you see otherwise, you can’t count on it.  At this point, you can’t take him any sooner than perhaps the last two rounds as a nice flier and hope that he can stay on the field.

Jason Schmidt, Los Angeles Dodgers.  After six straight winning seasons, Schmidt had all kinds of shoulder problems that limited him to under 30 innings.  In his first season with the Dodgers, Schmidt made just six starts and they were horrible.  He always was an innings eater with a reasonably good ERA and good strikeout numbers.  He might not even be worth a draft pick at this point, probably more of a wait and see during Spring Training or the beginning of the season.

Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers.  A guy with 20/30 potential, Weeks has never been able to play more than 129 games in a season, and two of his four years he has failed to play 100.  Besides the fact that he spends his life on the DL, Weeks will also kill you in the batting average department, only getting out of the .230s once in his career. Weeks has a rare combination of speed and decent power, and at second base that makes him all the more valuable if you miss out on the big guys.   He had knee surgery following the season last year, but it isn’t supposed to hinder him coming into 2009.  I’ve gotten seduced by Weeks’ potential before, but I won’t let it happen again.  Don’t you be fooled either.

Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals.  A year after throwing six innings in all of 2007, Carpenter was only able to throw 15 innings in 2008.  Once the most dominant starter in the National League and a Cy Young award winner, Carpenter has been reduced to an afterthought.  There has been no indication of what his role with the team will be, although it is assumed he will start IF he is able to pitch to start the year.  All reports are that his rehab is going well so far, but Carpenter has had so many setbacks during these two injury filled years, that he really isn’t worth drafting anymore.  If he is able to return to the mound I would probably grab him, but I just can’t see selecting him with one of my draft picks, and I am a HUGE Cardinal fan.

Josh Willingham, Washington Nationals.  Back injuries have forced some of the best athletes of our generation into early retirement.  Not saying that Willingham is one of the best, but it was his back that ailed him last season and that is never a good thing.  “The Hammer” is a fourth outfielder type who hits for a sub .275 average with some decent pop.  He is a nice guy to fill your roster out with, but he has yet to play a full season.  The last two years he has been around the 140s range, so he has played most of the year.  But I am ultra nervous about a guy with a back problem, but he did have five homers in September so maybe he can build on that.  Unless you are just taking him as a fill in type, I would go another direction from Willingham.