2012 NBA Draft: 9 Potential First-Round Busts

Over the years, we have seen numerous drafts that have ended up in greatness or in failure. For instance, there's the famed 1984 draft where fans witnessed players such as Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, John Stockton and Charles Barkley having their names called.

There's also the 1996 draft that featured Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen, Allen Iverson and Steve Nash. Not to mention the 2003 draft that featured LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

But for every great draft, there's a horrible one. For instance, there's the 2000 draft, which is arguably the worst of all time. As we all know, the Nets selected Kenyon Martin with the first selection, and, in hindsight, it appears they made a fairly decent choice.

Why? Because there were so many busts that followed his selection, including Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer, Jerome Moiso, Mateen Cleaves, Chris Mihm, Courtney Alexander, Donnell Harvey, DerMarr Johnson and Mark Madsen, among others.

But as of right now, it appears this year's draft could end up in the "great" category. There are many high-profile players who could have their names called, including Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones, Jared Sullinger, Andre Drummond, Bradley Beal, Austin Rivers, Jeremy Lamb, Arnett Moultrie and quite a few more.

Unfortunately, all 30 players who could have their name called in the first round will not become great players. There will likely be players who could be placed in the "busts" category when we look back at this draft 10 years from now.

Here are the players who I think will become the next Hasheem Thabeet, Darko Milicic, Adam Morrison, Michael Olowakandi, and so on and so forth.

PF-C Andre Drummond, Connecticut

NBA Upside Comparison: Jason Thompson, Sacramento

NBA Downside Comparison: Hilton Armstrong, New Orleans

A number of months ago, many people projected that UConn's Andre Drummond would be the first pick in this year's draft. However, after Drummond's less-than-stellar play and Anthony Davis' spectacular play for the champion Kentucky Wildcats, Drummond has fallen down the draft board slightly.

He is still projected to be a top-five selection, but there's no doubt that he won't be the first player to have his name called, unless something crazy happens.

Drummond, a classic one-and-done player, averaged 10 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.7 blocks last season. The Huskies failed to defend their NCAA title, as they lost to Iowa State in the first round of the tournament. Drummond also flopped during that 77-64 loss, scoring just two points and registered just three rebounds in 26 minutes. His only tournament appearance was definitely one of his worst games of the season.

The aspect that probably hurts Drummond the most is that he has been hyped for a while now and is just 18 years old. A player that young who receives that much hype usually doesn't work out, unless your name is LeBron James.

If Drummond believes all that hype, it could hurt him tremendously. Players that typically go that route ultimately decide that they don't want to work or put any effort into their game because they believe there have no flaws, whatsoever.

We've seen many players choose to never work on their game. Because of that, they eventually falter and fall off the face of the earth after about three or four seasons.

If Drummond wants to avoid that, he will need to continuously work on his game and attempt to become the best player he can be.

Drummond is an amazing physical specimen, but some of his skills need polishing. He appeared to always take shots within a few feet of the basket. The center will definitely need to work on his shot if he wants to become a true threat on the offensive side of the ball.

The 18-year-old also needs to work on his consistency. Drummond was very inconsistent last season, although some slack is given because he is so young. During a seven-game span last season, Drummond's point total was 1, 12, 24, 16, 4, 16 and 4. Out of the 30 games he participated in last season, he scored in single-digits 16 times, including two zero-point games (against Columbia and Louisville).

Like most big men, Drummond will also need to work on his upper body strength and his ability to bang with other players in the paint. If he can work on all of those aspects, Drummond will be a star.

Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. I believe we will see him falter and eventually become a bench player.

C Fab Melo, Syracuse

NBA Upside Comparison: Hasheem Thabeet, Portland

NBA Downside Comparison: Patrick O'Bryant, Golden State/Boston/Toronto

I'll be the first to tell you that I like Fab Melo. He has an awesome name, but just because he has a cool name doesn't mean he'll flourish at the professional level.

The former Syracuse star seldom played during his freshman season, but was given the starting nod as a sophomore. During last year's run, Melo averaged a paltry 5.8 rebounds per game, but he also swatted nearly three shots per contest in a little more than 25 minutes per night.

With those numbers, Melo was named the Big East Defensive Player of the Year, but the center was suspended for the NCAA Tournament due to academic reasons.

Clearly, Melo is not an offensive juggernaut. Last season, the 7'0" big man averaged just 7.8 points per game. He will definitely need to work on his offensive prowess if he wants to become a great, all-around center.

The Thunder's Serge Ibaka has showed us that you don't need to be a great offensive player to succeed, but Melo is not nearly as polished as Ibaka.

Melo really doesn't have any strengths on the offensive side of the ball, so he will definitely need to work on that before the NBA starts back in the fall. He has some decent post moves, but he is just too slow when he decides to execute. His offensive fundamentals definitely need some tweaking at some point.

There's no doubt that Melo isn't the greatest nor the fastest athlete in the world. It will definitely take some time for him to adjust to the fast-paced, up-tempo style that most teams play in the NBA.

Unfortunately, I don't think that Melo will be able to adjust to the level of play in the NBA, especially on offense. He could very well hold his own on the defensive side of the ball because of his considerable rebounding and immaculate shot-blocking skills. But as of right now, it still remains to be seen.

I think he'll falter in the NBA. Melo could eventually become a modest player off the bench, but I don't believe there's any way that he'll become a night-to-night starter.

PF-C Tyler Zeller, North Carolina

NBA Upside Comparison: Jason Smith, New Orleans

NBA Downside Comparison: Nenad Krstic, New Jersey/Oklahoma City

I'm going to start off by saying this. I don't like Tyler Zeller as a prospect. I just don't.

Although he stands at 6'11", he doesn't have much strength for a player who would typically be a center. This will allow him to be thrown around like a small rag-doll when he is battling in the paint with Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, Marc Gasol, Andrew Bogut, Al Jefferson, Roy Hibbert and others.

Additionally, Zeller is not that great of a defensive rebounder, which hurts his case because centers have to rebound and not allow opponents to sneak in and get the offensive board.

Zeller will also need to work on his shot outside of the paint, as his jumper definitely needs some polishing. Also on the offensive side, the former Tar Heel does not react to double teams well, which gives his opponents a hefty advantage.

Zeller definitely has some potential and more positives than negatives, but he will need to work on his game tremendously if he wants to prove that he was worth a lottery selection.

SF Royce White, Iowa State

NBA Upside Comparison: Shawne Williams, Portland

NBA Downside Comparison: Joey Graham, Toronto/Denver/Cleveland

I'll be the first to tell you that I'm pulling for Royce White. Just a few months ago, he was a very under-valued player who didn't have that good of a chance of even being drafted. Now, according to most mock drafts, White could potentially be a lottery pick.

But it appears certain that he will go somewhere in the early 20s. Regardless, it's still nice for White. If he is selected in the first round, he'll have a guaranteed contract and is nearly guaranteed a roster spot on opening night.

Even though I'm a fan of White, I just can't see him becoming a great NBA player. I believe there are numerous players who are projected after him who will have better professional careers, such as Iona's Scott Machado, Vanderbilt's John Jenkins, Alabama's JaMychal Green, Michigan State's Draymond Green, Georgetown's Henry Sims, Memphis' Will Barton, Missouri's Kim English and Baylor's Quincy Acy.

Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for White. There's no doubt about that. Toward the end of the regular season and into the early rounds of the NCAA tournament, I believe White was one of the best players at the collegiate level. He was consistently a double-double threat, as he managed to help the Cyclones defeat the defending champion Connecticut Huskies in the first round with a 15-point, 13-rebound effort.

In the next round, White did even better, scoring 23 points and grabbing nine rebounds. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough as the Cyclones lost to that amazing Kentucky squad, which eventually took home the championship.

White's game seems to have more positives than negatives, but I'm not sure if that'll translate into success at the professional level. Many players in the past were just like him in that respect, including Adam Morrison, Michael Olowakandi, Kwame Brown and Greg Oden. So that doesn't necessarily mean that he will become a valuable asset to an NBA team.

However, I think that White could become a very solid bench player, but that's as high as his ceiling is going to get. I don't believe that he will go on to be a game-to-game starter.

It just doesn't seem to be in the cards for him, especially since he is a mix between a small and power forward, and those types of players usually don't work out.

But we'll see what happens.

C Meyers Leonard, Illinois

NBA Upside Comparison: Andris Biedrins, Golden State

NBA Downside Comparison: Rafael Araujo, Toronto/Utah

To be perfectly honest, I really had no idea who Meyers Leonard was until a few months ago. That should say something.

Over the past few years, we have seen numerous "polished" big men come into the NBA and fail. Some failed epically and some managed to keep it at a "slight fail." But a fail is a fail.

Unfortunately, I think Leonard will be joining a group that already includes Rafael Araujo, Patrick O'Bryant, Ike Diogu, Sean Williams, Sean May, Yi Jianlian, Shelden Williams, Melvin Ely, Michael Olowakandi, Hilton Armstrong, Brandan Wright, Saer Sene, Steven Hunter, Michael Sweetney, Robert Swift, Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Curtis Borchardt, among others (and honestly, I can probably still list another 10 to 15 players, but I decided against it).

The point I'm trying to make is that for every great big man, there are two or three who can't live up to the hype.

That's where Leonard, a projected lottery selection, comes in. Leonard stands in at 7'0",, but weighs only 245 pounds. He's definitely going to need to add more bulk and muscle if he wants to consistently battle in the paint with guys such as Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, Tyson Chandler and so on.

Leonard also appears to be one of those classic one-year wonders. After seldom playing as a freshman, Leonard earned the starting nod this past season. Averaging nearly 32 minutes per contest, the center posted averages of 13.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game.

Those numbers aren't paltry by any means, but I believe he could have done slightly better. Regardless, we have seen many players have one solid collegiate season, earn a high draft selection and just absolutely stink it up at the professional level.

I believe Leonard will fall into that category.

PF John Henson, North Carolina

NBA Upside Comparison: Brandan Wright, Dallas

NBA Downside Comparison: Josh Boone, New Jersey

Henson becomes the second former Tar Heel to make this list and, honestly, I believe that he'll be the least successful. There just isn't anything I like about his game, outside of his decent rebounding abilities.

Since arriving at North Carolina, Henson has tacked on approximately 30 pounds (180 to 210) to his 6'10" frame. Unfortunately, he's still tremendously thin for a big man and will need to add a lot more weight if he wants to be able to become a solid threat in the paint on both sides of the ball.

Additionally, it appears that Henson will not be able to add on more weight, as he just doesn't possess the frame to add copious amounts of muscle.

Henson is undoubtedly a "project player." And I'd like to think that every team's front office knows that, which is why some teams should be wary of taking him.

His size is what hurts him the most. His stature is too small to constantly bang around with power forwards, and he doesn't have the shooting touch or the perimeter skills to become a small forward.

There's also no way that he'd ever be able to become a center, as most starting centers would already out-weigh him by at least 50 pounds.

There's also the fact that Henson is not a great shooter, whatsoever. Despite shooting exactly 50 percent from the field over the past two seasons, most of those shots have come from within a few feet of the basket.

His jump shot definitely needs work, not to mention that he was a career 48.4-percent shooter from the free-throw line at North Carolina (Shaq, anybody?). His horrendous free-throw shooting will definitely leave most teams deciding to foul him, as he will likely miss more than he'll make.

Henson's best aspect is perhaps is shot-blocking ability. Over the last two seasons, Henson has averaged 3.2 and 2.9 blocks, respectively. But just because he was a good shot-blocker at the collegiate level doesn't mean that he'll become one at the professional level (Hasheem Thabeet?)

As of right now, there are just too many flaws in Henson's game for him to become a quality, night-to-night starter in the NBA. Personally, I don't even believe that he'll become a quality role player off the bench.

Henson will likely have to be developed for a season or two in the Developmental League, and I can't really see him flourishing there. When he does make an NBA roster, I believe that he'll rarely see the court. When he does, it'll be garbage time.

But if there's one thing the NBA has taught us, it's that you never know what could conceivably happen.

PG Damian Lillard, Weber State

NBA Upside Comparison: Jarrett Jack, New Orleans/Jamaal Tinsley, Utah

NBA Downside Comparison: Marcus Banks, Boston/Minnesota/Phoenix

This year's draft is absolutely stacked with players from Kentucky, Kansas, Connecticut, North Carolina and Syracuse. With a few other players from Duke, Florida, Vanderbilt, Baylor, Ohio State and a few others, it seems as though the projected first round is complete.

Enter Damian Lillard. It happens nearly every year. There always seems to be one player from a small school that has his name called. Lillard, from Weber State, will likely be that player this year (along with Andrew Nicholson from St. Bonaventure).

A projected lottery selection, the point guard could join a recent list of such players that includes Morehead State's Kenneth Faried last year, VCU's Larry Sanders in 2010, Davidson's Stephen Curry and VCU's Eric Maynor in 2009, Rider's Jason Thompson and IUPUI's George Hill in 2008, Eastern Washington's Rodney Stuckey in 2007, Bradley's Patrick O'Bryant in 2006 and Western Carolina's Kevin Martin in 2004.

Don't get me wrong, I'm cheering for Lillard. It's always nice to see a guy from a small college come in and do exceedingly well at the professional level. But I don't think it's in the cards for Lillard, mainly because he spent his entire collegiate career playing inferior competition.

Last season, Lillard averaged a career-best 24.5 points per game, but he also played games against Jacksonville State, Sacramento State, California-Irvine, Montana, Portland State, Southern Utah, Idaho State, Northern New Mexico, Texas-Arlington and Mayville State, which I didn't even know existed. Of course, he faced numerous other opponents, with the toughest being perhaps California or Utah.

If Lillard had played in a conference such as the Big East, the ACC, the Pac-12, the Big Ten or the SEC and put up the same numbers, I'd consider him a much better prospect. But his stats don't seem as impressive when he's playing in the Big Sky.

What hurts Lillard's case the most is that he's not a true point guard, nor is he a shooting guard. His stats definitely don't reflect actual point guard's stats. Lillard never averaged more than four assists per game in any of his four collegiate seasons.

Lillard seems to be one of those players who can score and that's it. As of late, most players like that have failed to become solid players in the NBA.

Since he is a scorer, Lillard also attempts many questionable shots. Prior to last season, Lillard had never shot better than 44 percent from the field. He finally accomplished that feat last season, even though it was just 46.7 percent.

He will definitely need to make better decisions as his professional career progresses. Additionally, some may worry about Lillard's health. He played in just 10 games two seasons ago. However, he did play in at least 31 games in three of his four seasons.

I don't believe there is any possibility that Lillard will become a night-to-night starter. I think he can eventually become a nice spark off the bench, but that will be his ceiling.

I'm rooting for him, but I just think the odds are against him.

PF Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure

NBA Upside Comparison: Chris Wilcox, Boston

NBA Downside Comparison: Cedric Simmons, New Orleans/Cleveland/Chicago

Like Damian Lillard, I'm rooting for St. Bonaventure's Andrew Nicholson essentially because he's from a rather small school.

However, the same skepticism applies to Nicholson. He also has faced inferior competition throughout his entire collegiate career. Nicholson played extravagantly well last season for the Bonnies. He averaged 18.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.

But even though he played great, some of his team's opponents were Fordham, Canisius, Saint Francis (Pa.), Cornell, Niagara, George Washington, Arkansas State, Siena, Buffalo, Duquesne, Richmond, Rhode Island, Charlotte and Loyola (Md.).

Nicholson does have the slight edge over Lillard because he did play some tough opponents along the way last season, including Xavier, Cleveland State (22-11), Illinois, North Carolina State, Florida State, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts (25-12) and Temple (24-8).

Standing at 6'9", Nicholson is considered to be a "small" power forward. He also weighs 225 pounds, but he definitely needs to add more muscle and bulk if he wants to bang inside with some of the NBA's premier power forwards. Because he lacks some upper body strength, he was constantly over-matched in the low post.

Over his collegiate career, it was noticeable that he took plays off on both sides of the court, mainly on the defensive side. He would seem to get tired and just stand there sometimes without moving around.

Nicholson definitely needs to work on his awareness and his motor if he wants to be able to become a legitimate player in the NBA. Furthermore, Nicholson appeared to be very turnover-prone. He committed 2.5 turnovers last season and 3.2 the year before that.

Nicholson also needs to add more post moves to his repertoire. Most players knew exactly what was coming when they were defending him. If he fails to add any more moves, defenses will know what is coming and Nicholson will either turn the ball over or have his shot blocked.

Nicholson definitely has the potential to become a solid NBA player, but the odds seem to be against him.

He needs a lot of work. But if he puts in that solid work before the season starts, his career will be a good one.

SF Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

NBA Upside Comparison: Marvin Williams, Atlanta

NBA Downside Comparison: Ron Mercer, Boston/Chicago; Bonzi Wells, Portland/Memphis

Ah, the third Tar Heel on this list. Some of y'all may be thinking of me as a "hater," but I'm actually not. I like the Tar Heels and have great respect for their basketball program.

Anyway, I just don't think that Barnes, Tyler Zeller and John Henson will become great NBA players. Barnes has copious amounts of potential and is the likeliest of the three to succeed. But I just don't think he'll get there.

I just can't see him becoming the player everyone has made him out to be.

I believe he'll end up having a career similar to that of Marvin Williams, another former Tar Heel and current Hawks player. Williams, an 11.5-point-per-game scorer, was the No. 2 selection in the 2005 draft and has clearly not lived up to the hype.

I can see Barnes having a similar career while averaging around 10-15 points per game and possibly becoming a solid bench player, but that's about it.

Barnes has a number of weaknesses in his game, but nearly every player is like that. There is not a single player in the NBA that has no weaknesses. That's just the way it is, but Barnes has more than he should.

The forward struggles mostly on offense. He fails to make shots for himself. Because of that, he doesn't have a great first step, which hurts his offensive abilities tremendously.

Also, despite his decent 35-percent shooting from beyond the arc, he's not that great of a perimeter player. Since he isn't great at making shots for himself, most of his shots will come from outside the arc or barely inside the line.

If he fails to establish easy shots for himself, he will have to settle for long shots, so he needs to work on his shooting.

Barnes also seems to be one of those players who gets discouraged when he can't get it going offensively and seems to just disappear. Simply put, he's inconsistent and will need to work on that if he wants to show he was worth a top-10 selection.

The future lottery selection has additionally shown that he does not like to go into the paint. He'd rather settle for a tough outside jumper instead of going inside, trying to make contact and possibly getting an easy shot.

At the professional level, Barnes will not be able to do that. At some point, he will have to go inside. That's just the way it works, especially since he's not considered a "three-point specialist."

Barnes is also too one-dimensional to play small forward. He's not a great rebounder, even though he averaged more than five per game in each of his two seasons in Chapel Hill. Barnes is also not that great of a passer. Since he can't really set up shots for himself, he can't do it for teammates, as evident by his averages of 1.4 and 1.1 assists per game.

He will definitely need to work on his game before the NBA season begins. Unfortunately, I can see him putting himself in the same disappointing category as Kwame Brown, Adam Morrison, Michael Olowakandi, Shawn Bradley, Darko Milicic, Jonathan Bender, Greg Oden and others.