College Football Stock Watch: Will Top 50 Returners Be Better, Same or Worse?

It's difficult to gauge the level of production a college football player will have from year to year.

There are myriad variables, with health, touches and returning teammates being just a few of them.

This is a rundown of the top 50 players remaining from last season, and whether they will be better, worse or the same in 2012.

Some guys lost key teammates, and their production will suffer for it, while others (most on this list) have the potential to thrive and produce great statistical seasons.

You may or may not agree with where each player is ranked, and that's fine. I was wrong once before, back in 1991, so it could potentially happen again.

That said, this is more about predicting their production in 2012 than it is about debating their ranking at the end of 2011.

For those of you who did not read this and skipped immediately to the part where you wonder how this idiot ranked your favorite player so low, it takes all kinds, and we love you anyway.

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James Franklin, QB, Missouri - Better

Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia - Same

Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State - Same

Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State - Same

Marqise Lee, WR, USC - Better

Brodrick Brown, CB, Oklahoma State - Better

Lamarcus Joyner, S, Florida State - Same

Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma State - Worse

Devin Taylor, DE, South Carolina - Better

Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin - Better

Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU - Better

50. Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska

Martinez is an enigma.

There are times when he seems to grasp the offense and throws the ball accurately for several passes in a row.

And then there are times when he can't hit the broad side of a barn.

His rushing ability is superb, but will his consistency issues passing the ball be resolved?

I think not.

Verdict: Same

49. Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

Clowney's freshman season was a success by any measurement.

He finished the year with eight sacks.

And he was a freshman.

His ceiling is seemingly still far off, and we will see a leap in production this season.

Verdict: Better

48. Logan Thomas, QB, Va. Tech

Logan Thomas is a good quarterback.

That said, he will struggle to match last season’s numbers, as he does not have the uber-talented David Wilson in the backfield to relieve some of the pressure.

The Hokies’ running game will again be solid, no doubt, but Wilson was a stud.

Thomas’ skill might increase, but his numbers will suffer.

Verdict: Worse

47. Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State

Forget about the great recruits Urban Meyer is hauling in at OSU, this kid is legit.

Miller has the physical tools to be the best quarterback the Buckeyes have seen in a decade.

He will progress as a passer, and with his ability to run the ball, he will be one of the Big Ten's most dangerous offensive threats in 2012.

Verdict: Better

46. A.J. McCarron, AB, Alabama

Call me crazy, but I think McCarron will surprise us this season.

His performance against LSU in the BCS title game was his best to date against a stout defense, and he will continue to build on that success, especially as an experienced leader for this team.

What a difference a year makes.

Last season, we were not even sure if McCarron would start.

With some stars on the offensive line to offer solid protection, McCarron will thrive.

Verdict: Better

45. Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State

Many folks don't know about Wilson because he toils in relative obscurity for a bad team on the west coast.

That said, he is possibly the most underrated wide receiver in the nation.

After averaging over 18 yards per catch in his freshman season, he backed that up with a nearly 17-yard-per-catch average in 2011.

He also doubled his touchdown total from six in 2010 to 12 in 2011, in spite of some quarterback issues.

He will just continue to do what he does and make big plays all season long.

Verdict: Same

44. Jeremy Grove, LB, East Carolina

It may seem like a stretch, but consider this: Grove finished 2011 10th in total tackles with 122.

That in and of itself is impressive, but Grove was only a freshman last season.

His nose for the ball and ability to get in on any tackle will lead to good things again in his second season with the Pirates.

Verdict: Better

43. Johnny Adams, CB, Michigan State

Adams is a member of the Spartans' 2012 defense, which has the potential to dominate its opponents.

He had a huge impact on the Spartans defense last season, tackling well in the open field and posting five pass breakups and three interceptions.

Sparty's front seven is formidable yet again, and Adams will have the opportunity to take advantage.

Verdict: Better

42. Rex Burkhead, RB, Nebraska

Why can't Burkhead compete for the Heisman?

He has a shot at leading the Big Ten in rushing, and the Huskers have as good a chance as anybody to win the conference.

He runs hard, gains tough yards and makes the occasional big play for Bo Pelini's squad.

He will again be the key to success for Nebraska, and will, again, produce.

Verdict: Same

41. John Simon, DT, Ohio State

Simon is a beast.

He totaled seven sacks, three passes defended and 53 tackles last season.

The Buckeyes' front seven is going to be even scarier this season then they were last season, and Simon will benefit from some added support on the line.

When it comes to disruptive tackles, there are few better, and that trend will continue into 2012.

Verdict: Better

40. Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson

It's going to be tough for Boyd this season.

Not through any fault of his own, but the Tigers have to replace four offensive linemen from last season.

That will bring down any quarterback's production.

Verdict: Worse

39. D.J. Fluker, OL, Alabama

This is the season for Fluker.

He has been somewhat inconsistent, but showed flashes of potential for Nick Saban.

This is the season that sees Fluker bolster the Tide offensive line in the way he was expected to when recruited.

Verdict: Better

38. Keenan Allen, WR, Cal

Allen is an explosive wide receiver with the ability to make big plays downfield.

Jeff Tedford's team is going to be pretty solid offensively in 2012, and Allen and the passing game will anchor it.

Verdict: Better

37. Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

Rhodes has been terrorizing ACC quarterbacks in recent seasons. He has the talent to take advantage of mistakes forced by the 'Noles' solid front seven.

His nose for the ball and ability to tackle in space make him a prime candidate for All-Conference honors.

Verdict:  Better

36. Tavon Austin, WR, WVU

Austin is benefiting from two things going into 2012: Dana Holgorsen's head coaching and Geno Smith's experience.

Austin is a talented guy with crazy speed, but when you couple his skills with those two factors, he has the potential to have a record-setting year in 2012.

Verdict: Better

35. William Gholston, DT, Michigan State

The Big Ten is littered with fine defensive tackles.

Gholston is one of them.

He plays with what Michigan State fans would call a "mean streak" and is a force on that Spartan front four.

I pity the team that must face this defense when they are executing. It's going to be good from top to bottom, starting with Gholston and friends and working back to the secondary.

Verdict: Same

34. Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

Guess who was second in the nation in rushing touchdowns last season?

Klein.

The guy found the end zone 27 times with his feet; that's more then Trent Richardson, LaMichael James and everybody else in the country except Montee Ball.

That is going to be tough to duplicate.

Verdict: Worse

33. Silas Redd, RB, Penn State

If Penn State is going to enjoy any success in 2012, Bill O'Brien has to look to Silas Redd.

The quarterback situation is unsettled, to put it kindly, and Redd has the talent to make a huge impact on an offense that will be searching for production.

He finished the 2011 season with over 1,200 yards, but only seven touchdowns.

Expect 1,500 yards and over 20 scores in 2012.

Verdict: Better

32. Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon

LaMichael James is gone.

So what?

The Ducks still have Kenjon Barner, and he will get the majority of the 240-plus carries that James leaves behind.

Better?

Barner will absolutely destroy his 2011 season given the extra touches.

Verdict: Better

31. Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

It's simple, really.

Eifert is the best tight end in the country and will continue to be so in 2012.

The uncertainty at quarterback for the Irish is troubling, but it is similar to the conditions last season, and Eifert flourished.

Verdict: Better

30. Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

Purdue is right on the cusp of breaking through in the Big Ten.

Short has been a key part of their rise.

He is a dominant defensive tackle, with the ability to stifle running games and wreak havoc in the passing game.

With the experience the Boilermakers now have on defense, he is not alone in his efforts and will have a big year.

Verdict: Better

29. Trevardo Williams, DT, UConn

Williams gets overlooked simply because he plays in the Big East.

What a mistake.

He finished 2011 with 12.5 sacks.

That's ridiculous for a tackle, but Williams has the speed to shoot the crease quickly, as well as the strength to shed blockers.

The Huskies don't have much going for them, but with a guy like Williams anchoring the defense, some good things are bound to happen.

Verdict: Same

28. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan

You may scoff at the notion that Robinson is top 50, but go ahead, try and justify leaving off a guy who gained more than 3,300 yards and scored 36 touchdowns.

When you factor in his incredible elusiveness and the sheer joy of watching him perform, he is a shoo-in.

Anyway, Denard will be better this season.

It's his second season under Al Borges, which, historically, has been a good season for quarterbacks.

His explosive capabilities will do well for him this season.

Verdict: Better

27. Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn

Lemonier posted 9.5 sacks in 11 games last season in the toughest conference in America.

This Tigers defense was young and inexperienced, but has a shot at being special in the next few seasons.

Lemonier's emergence as a pass-rusher will be a key part of any success they have in the next few seasons.

Verdict: Better

26. Casey Pachall, QB, TCU

TCU was an overtime touchdown and two points away from a perfect season in 2012.

They accomplished that with the new guy at the helm.

Pachall started off the season with a four-touchdown performance in the loss to Baylor and never looked back.

With an incredibly talented group returning, it will be interesting to see how the Frogs and Pachall perform against BCS foes on a regular basis.

Verdict: Worse

25. T.J. McDonald, S, USC

This guy's impact on Lane Kiffin's team cannot be understated.

McDonald brings a level of experience to the Trojans that not all of their defense can boast.

His decision to return for his senior season helped bolster their shot at the BCS title, and his play on the field will back up his reputation.

Verdict: Better

24. Ricky Wagner, OL, Wisconsin

We see it year after year.

Wisconsin churns out top-notch linemen like Oreo churns out cookies.

Wagner is next in a long line of very talented guys stepping up to pave the way for the Badgers' vaunted rushing attack.

Expect to see this guy climb draft charts and go in the late first round in 2013.

Verdict: Better

23. Demetrius Hartsfield, LB, Maryland

Hartsfield was named to various All-ACC teams last season, and with good reason.

Maryland had few good things going for them, and Hartsfield's 107 tackles in only nine games were definitely one of them.

The defense should have a little more stability in their second season with Randy Edsall at the helm of the program, and I expect to see Hartsfield flourish in 2012 if he can stay healthy.

Verdict: Better

22. Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas

I know, I know, Davis was out in 2011.

That said, I just couldn't resist sneaking him in.

2010's SEC-leading rusher will be back with a vengeance from injury.

He will obviously have a better season than 2011, but it will be interesting to see if he approaches 2010 form, especially having to split carries.

Verdict: Better

21. Chase Thomas, LB, Stanford

With all of the focus on Stanford's star on offense, Andrew Luck, we sometimes overlooked Thomas and the rest of the Cardinal defense.

This guy is legit.

He posted 8.5 sacks last season and is all over the field, blowing up plays and making tackles.

If fellow 'backer Shayne Skov gets healthy and on the field, he and Thomas will be one of the most formidable duos in the game.

Verdict: Better

20. Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma

Hello, Mr. Stills, welcome to the limelight.

Stills has some big shoes to fill with the departure of Ryan Broyles, but has the talent to do so.

He averaged over 14 yards per catch and caught 61 passes in 2011.

Taking over the bulk of the receiving for Broyles will lead to huge numbers for Stills.

Verdict: Better

19.David Amerson, CB, N.C. State

Never heard of this guy?

You need to.

Amerson led the nation in interceptions last season with 13 on the season.

Eventually, you would think quarterbacks would get the point: Don't throw to his side of the field.

Verdict: Same

18. De’Anthony Thomas, RB/WR, Oregon

Thomas is speed personified.

LaMichael James' absence, coupled with a new quarterback looking for a safety valve on passing plays, leads me to believe that he will have a huge season.

Of course, it helps when you can get down the field faster than anybody else.

Verdict: Better

17. Bacarri Rambo, S, Georgia

Rambo is a very talented kid.

However, a four-game suspension really puts a damper on his chances of duplicating or improving on last season.

He is talented enough to change the face of a game from his safety position, reading pass/run with incredible instincts, and he has a nose for the ball.

While we will see plenty of highlight-reel plays from him in 2012 (if he stays), his numbers will not approach those of the 2011 campaign.

Verdict: Worse

16. Keith Price, QB, Washington

Price is an interesting study.

Through his first six games in 2011, he had thrown 21 touchdown passes.

He had at least three in every game to that point.

He was hampered a little bit by injury, which hurt his mobility, but he wound up with eight three-plus touchdown games on the season.

Washington's schedule has a brutal stretch that features LSU, USC, Stanford and Oregon in a six-week span.

That said, Price will have the numbers to sneak in as a Heisman finalist if the Huskies can win one of those four games.

Verdict: Better

15. Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU

Montgomery is a force and a big reason why this LSU defense will not see any drop-off this season after their ridiculously successful 2011.

He posted nine sacks in 2011 and has the physical tools to hit the 15-sack mark in 2012.

In his second season as a full-time starter, Montgomery will make the jump from good to great.

Verdict: Better

14. Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina

In his third season at South Carolina, Lattimore will get a shot to run the Gamecocks to the SEC Championship game.

He is returning from a season-ending injury six games into the 2011 season and will be running with a chip on his shoulder after missing the majority of last season.

If he stays healthy, there is little doubt that he will easily better last season's performance statistically. He'll likely more than double his numbers.

Verdict: Better

13. Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia

I’m incredibly concerned about Murray.

While Georgia’s defense is going to be one of the toughest in the country, the offense is full of holes.

Somebody has to catch the ball, the offensive line has more questions than the Riddler, and the running back position is not exactly a bastion of continuity and consistency.

While I think Murray is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the nation, his numbers will suffer in 2012 because of the Dawgs’ offensive personnel shortcomings.

Verdict: Worse

12. Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney hit the jackpot with this guy.

Watkins is fast, has incredible hands and can leap with the best of them.

Coupled with quarterback Tajh Boyd, he was a dynamic force on the Tigers offense, and when he was out with injuries, it was obvious that their offense suffered.

Given another year to mature and grasp the system, this guy will be a legitimate threat for the Biletnikoff in 2012.

Verdict: Better

11. Geno Smith, QB, WVU

This one is easy.

You could see visible progress from Smith and the rest of the offense last season as they got a better grasp of Dana Holgorsen's system.

Even in a much tougher conference, Smith will face defenses that routinely give up 400-yard days to quarterbacks, and he will take advantage.

Smith will be in the Heisman discussion late into the season.

Verdict: Better

10. Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame

It certainly wasn't all on the defense that Notre Dame disappointed yet again in 2011, but they had their moments (see Michigan game).

Manti Te'o and the rest of the Irish defenders have some tall tasks ahead of them this season, especially considering the departure of Aaron Lynch.

That said, Te'o is the leader of that defense, and his ability to fly to the ball and make big plays leaves him in a position to step up and have a huge impact on how the Irish perform in 2012.

It will be tough to top 120 tackles, but Te'o will do it.

Verdict: Better

9. Brandon Jenkins, DE, Florida State

Jenkins is a freak, as many defensive ends seem to be, physically.

He has great speed off the edge, and his great teammates on that Florida State defense make them a dangerous crew to face.

Given his propensity for sacks (eight in 2011), I expect to see Jenkins put up some more big numbers for Jimbo Fisher's defense.

Verdict: Better

8. Alex Okafor, DE, Texas

Okafor's decision to return this season sent Longhorn fans into periods of burnt-orange delirious joy.

He is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the field in 2012, and could be the first defensive end drafted in the 2013 draft with another strong season.

The Longhorns defense is gaining some seasoning, and Okafor will be the benefactor of that added experience.

Verdict: Better

7. Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama

Jones is going to be the top lineman in the game for the second consecutive season.

It’s no coincidence that Trent Richardson enjoyed such immense success rushing at ‘Bama, with Jones on the line.

His talent is ridiculous, he’s strong enough and has the footwork to block any pass-rushers and has the mobility to pull if necessary and get to the next level downfield.

Verdict: Better

6. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

Ah, Landry Jones.

I can't figure this guy out, especially the issues he has with interceptions.

Against good teams, especially on the road, he struggles immensely.

Just taking 2011 as a snapshot, he threw 15 picks, eight of them on the road.

That doesn't take into account his two interception performance against Iowa State and another against Missouri.

Jones has the tools to succeed, and the players surrounding him are extremely talented, but it's difficult to predict much change from the past few seasons, especially when it comes to interceptions.

Verdict: Same

5. Robert Woods, WR, USC

Matt Barkley has a luxury not every quarterback enjoys: a wide receiver that sucks in passes like a vacuum.

Woods is ridiculously athletic, and his talents translated to all kinds of highlight-reel plays and tons of production in 2011.

It’s hard to imagine, with all the talent on that Trojan team, that Woods will be anything but better in 2012.

Verdict: Better

4. Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU

Tyrann Mathieu.

He is, undeniably, extremely talented.

However, the loss of a fellow lock-down cornerback may mean we see his numbers go down when it comes to passes defended and interceptions.

However, we can expect him to continue his success in the return game, and he has the knack for big-time plays.

That knack does not just go away, especially in the great ones.

Verdict: Better

3. Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin

Ball is an interesting study.

He scored a ridiculous 39 times last season, and that's not counting his touchdown pass to quarterback Russell Wilson against Indiana.

His nose for the end zone is unbelievable, and he will once again be operating behind one of the best O-lines in the game.

The idea, however, that Ball will duplicate last season's numbers is well-nigh ludicrous.

Whatever quarterback the Badgers field, he will not be Wilson, and Ball will have more attention from opposing defenses than at any point in his career.

Expect another 1,500-plus-yard season, but the scoring total will go down.

Verdict: Same

2. Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas

Wilson may be the best quarterback in the SEC, but he's going to have a tough time duplicating his 2011 success.

With Joe Adams, Jarius Wright and Greg Childs all gone, the most dangerous part of this offense will be the Knile Davis-led rushing game.

Wilson is a great talent, but he has to have somebody to which he can throw the ball.

On top of that, there's this whole Bobby Petrino scandal thing that is going to impact the Hogs' level of play.

I expect Wilson to be a tad behind in his production from last season.

Verdict: Worse

1. Matt Barkley, QB, USC

Barkley's return to the Trojans instantly vaulted them into BCS title discussions, whether deserved or not.

The fact that USC returns two of the top wide receivers in the nation in Marqise Lee and Robert Woods make Barkley's job that much easier.

The offensive line has some questions, but the Trojans have been able to reload at the position for years, and look as if they will do so again.

With the level of talent Barkley has surrounding him, a Heisman campaign is almost a lock.

Verdict: Better