Breaking Down Who Takes the Last Shot on Every NBA Team

There has been a lot of debate lately over "hero ball," the notion that there's one guy on every team who can make the shot with the game on the line. I looked at all the game-winning attempts over the last two years team by team to determine who that guy is for every team. 

Most teams have them, but a few don't. While the argument has been that "hero ball" doesn't work, the evidence actually suggests that it does.

Last-shot situations across the board see a decline in field goal percentages. Comparing last-shot situations to league averages is not fair as teams are more likely to have their best defenders and come in off a time out. 

In line with this fact, it must be noted that players who tend to shoot it more tend to make it more. There are 16 players who have attempted at least six attempts in situations where the game was on the line (defined as a scenario where there are 24 seconds or less left on the clock and the shot is to take the lead or tie). Those 16 players have a combined effective field goal percentage of .428. 

On the other hand, players who have taken five or fewer shots have an effective field goal percentage of .309. That's more than 11 percent lower than the heroes. 

Based on that, the evidence suggests that putting the ball in the hands of your best scorer is the best strategy. 

In terms of makes, the three best players this season are Kevin Durant with seven, Derrick Rose with five, and Carmelo Anthony, Joe Johnson and Chris Paul, all tied with four. 

In terms of percentages, among players who have attempted five shots, the top players are Anthony (.688 eFG percentage), with Rose and Johnson tied at .611. 

The league-wide average, for the purpose of comparisons through the slideshow, is .344. 

That's pretty key in understanding the situation. If someone is over .500, that's impressive. Even around .400 is well above average. Don't think of these like season-wide averages. 

So without further ado, here are the go-to guys on every NBA team. 

Note: All stats taken from Play Index Plus via Basketball-Reference.com 

Atlanta Hawks: Joe Johnson

Last year, Joe Johnson was hardly dependable with the game on the line, hitting on just one of his five shots.  

This year, however, he's been the man, converting on four of nine attempts. That includes going 3-for-5 from three-point land, giving him a .611 effective field goal percentage on the season. The Hawks won all four games when Johnson hit the shot.  

Over the course of his career, Johnson has hit 23 shots to tie or take the lead with 24 seconds or less on 81 attempts for a field goal percentage of .283. He's struggled over his career, but give credit where it is due. This year, he's improved. 

Boston Celtics: Paul Pierce

Paul Pierce is the Celtic who takes the most attempts with the game on the line. While I'm sure there will be some who will argue that Ray Allen should be here, the reality is that Pierce has taken 35 shots with the game on the line compared to Allen's 28 in the "Big Three" era. 

No matter who should be taking the last shot, it's more frequently Pierce than Allen.

Surprisingly, Pierce has proven to be unreliable as of late, making only two shots on 11 attempts over the last two seasons. Over the course of his career, he has 25 makes on 99 attempts for a field goal percentage of just .252. 

Is his reputation as a clutch shooter overrated? The numbers certainly say so. 

Charlotte Bobcats: D.J. Augustin

When you do a slideshow for every team, it means you have to actually include every team, even the Charlotte Bobcats.

Over the last two years, the player with the most attempts with the game on the line for Charlotte is D.J. Augustin, who has attempted 11 shots, making two of them. 

The Bobcats are one of only two teams that have not made a game-winning shot this year. 

Over the course of his career, Augustin is 3-for-15. He's a nice young player, but the Bobcats are going to need some serious help if they are going to improve. 

Incidentally, if the Bobcats don't win again this year, they will sport the worst winning percentage in NBA history. They also have the second worst margin of victory in NBA history. Are they the worst team ever?

Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose

Perhaps the most remarkable difference in Derrick Rose over the last two years is how much he has improved with the game on the line. Over his first two seasons, Rose was just 3-for-24 with the game on the line, boasting a meager field goal percentage of .125. 

Some of that can be attributed to the less than imaginative offense of Vinny Del Negro, but some of it was due to the fact that Rose had not yet developed a reliable jump shot. 

Over the last two years, Rose is 8-for-17 from the field, including two three-pointers with the game on the line, giving him an effective field goal percentage of .529. As evidenced by that statistic, Rose has become one of the most clutch players in the NBA. 

Cleveland Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving

One of the remarkable things about Kyrie Irving is the maturity he plays with. In his rookie season, he's gone 3-for-5 with the game on the line and has won two games with his clutch heroics.

One of those games was against Boston when he put Cleveland over Boston with just 2.6 seconds in the game. 

Irving might not be the next LeBron James, but he's looking more and more like the next great Cavalier. As he continues to grow and mature, and as talent is put around him, look for Cleveland to develop into a contender. 

Dallas Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki

One of the major takeaways of last year's NBA Finals is that Dirk Nowitzki is a clutch player. Hitting game-winners on the biggest stage will do that for you. 

Over the last two seasons, Nowitzki has attempted 13 shots with the game on the line and made six of them, giving him a field goal percentage of .461. 

It's not like Dirk suddenly became clutch last year—it just took time for the world to discover it. He's hit on 29-of-77 field goals over the course of his career. 

His .396 effective field goal percentage isn't great, but it's not bad compared to league standards.

Denver Nuggets: Committee

The Denver Nuggets don't really seem to have a single player they like to go to, especially not since Carmelo Anthony left.

Among players still on the roster, there have been 26 attempts over the last two years, eight of which have gone in. The only player with more than one make is Al Harrington, who has exactly twice as much as six other players. 

Maybe it's just that no one ever got the practice taking the last shot while Carmelo Anthony was on the team. Whatever it is, the Nuggets have not been successful with the game on the line and are still in search of a closer. 

Detroit Pistons: Rodney Stuckey

Detroit is a bit of a conundrum. The player with the most attempts over the last two years is Charlie Villanueva. However, Villanueva is deep in the doghouse this year and hasn't taken a game-winning attempt all season. 

At this point, the distinction has to go to Rodney Stuckey, who has hit on two of his three attempts this year while going 4-for-15 overall in his career. Whether Stuckey is the closer of the future remains to be seen, as Brandon Knight could evolve into that player as time goes on. 

Golden State Warriors: To Be Determined

My first thought was that Stephen Curry would be the easy replacement for Monta Ellis in this department. Not so fast. Curry is 0-for-4 lifetime with the game on the line. Noe exactly a great history of being a clutch player. 

So who else is there? The only shot made by a player on the active roster to put the Warriors ahead with less than 24 seconds on the clock came from rookie second-rounder Charles Jenkins. How many are ready to dub Jenkins as the next clutch Warrior?

Is it Curry? Klay Thompson? David Lee? Time will tell. Right now, they just don't have enough to go off. 

Houston Rockets: No Hero Ball Allowed

One team that is not buying into hero ball is the Houston Rockets. In fact, they almost seem determined that everyone on the team gets a shot, as they have nine players who have attempted game-winners this year with six makes. 

The player who has attempted the most is Kevin Martin, but he hasn't made any. 

Over the course of his career, Martin is 7-of-31 for a field goal percentage of .226. That goes a long way for validating the apparent "no-hero-ball" philosophy in Houston. 

Whether by necessity or choice, the Rockets have no heroes. 

Indiana Pacers: Danny Granger

One of the most peculiar discoveries I made while making this slideshow was the inexplicable year from Danny Granger. 

In the 2009-10 season, Granger lit it up with the game on the line, hitting on seven of 11 shots, including four of five from deep.

That makes him the only player in the last decade to make at least seven game-winners and maintain an effective field goal percentage of at least .800, making that arguably the most clutch season in the last decade by any player. 

What's intriguing is that in the three years before that, he missed every one of his 10 attempts. Since then, he has missed on all but one of his 12 attempts. It's as though he used up all his makes in a single campaign. 

That miracle season gives him a reputation as being clutch, but the rest of his career would suggest otherwise. Over the course of his career, he's made 8-of-33 attempts, four of them threes, for an effective field goal percentage of .303.

Los Angeles Clippers: Chris Paul

Let's be honest, you knew this was coming right? There are certain teams where you know what the answer is before you get to the slide. Let me say this: Chris Paul is one clutch individual. 

Having said that, he struggled last year, missing on all four of his shots. That might be because the weapons he was playing with were the equivalent of a squeegee and a sponge mop, leaving opponents with nothing to worry about aside from Paul. 

This year, surrounded by greater talent, he is 4-of-9 with a field goal percentage of .444. 

Over the course of his career, he's made 17 shots on 42 attempts for a career effective field goal percentage of .417. 

Los Angles Lakers: Kobe Bryant

Kobe Bryant is by far the most debated player when it comes to the whole game-winning shot conversation. 

These are the facts. Since 2001 (when these stats began to be recorded), he has made 42 shots that either tied or won games with 24 seconds left on the clock. Of those shots, 16 of them were three-pointers. 

He has missed 92 shots in that time span. 

His effective field goal percentage of .367 is above average, but not great. 

This year he is 3-for-13 with an effective field goal percentage of .269. That's pretty bad. 

Those are the facts. Beat each other up with them. 

Memphis Grizzlies: Rudy Gay

This year, Rudy Gay is 2-for-5 with the game on the line. One of those makes was a three-point shot. Last season, he was 4-of-10, again with one of those makes being from deep. That gives him a pretty hefty effective field goal percentage of .467 over the last two years. 

Over the course of his career, Gay has been a pretty clutch performer, hitting 17-of-42 shots, including six three-pointers. That gives him an effective field goal percentage of .476 over the course of his career. 

Miami Heat: Dwyane Wade

Take note that this is in no way a statement about who should take the shot, it's just a factual statement about who has taken the shots.  

Since the Big Three have come together, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have both taken 11 shots to tie or take the lead with 24 seconds or less left on the clock. Wade has made four of them while James has only made two of them.  

Over the course of his career, Wade has attempted 73 shots, sinking 18 of them. Five of those were threes. That gives him an effective field goal percentage of only .281. 

Over the course of his career, James has made 22 shots on 77 attempts. Four of his buckets were from deep, giving him an effective field goal percentage of .311. 

Over their respective careers, James has the better numbers, though both are below average. As teammates, Wade has had the better numbers than James. 

Milwaukee Bucks: Monta Ellis?

Ersan Ilyasova is the only player on Milwaukee's roster who has hit a shot to tie or take the lead this year, going 2-for-3. Carlos Delfino is the only player on the roster who did it last year. 

Brandon Jennings, you ask? He's 0-for-12 in the last two years. He was 4-of-13 three years ago, but the last two years raise serious doubt about his closer credentials. 

Monta Ellis is the new arrival, but in all likelihood, he's going to be the closer of the future. He's 8-of-25 for his career with two of those being threes. Over the last two seasons with the Warriors, he has hit on six of 12 attempts including two threes for an effective field goal percentage of .583. 

On the same number of shots, Ellis' 14 points seem a lot better than Jennings' none, so we will give it to the new guy. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: Kevin Love

Kevin Love is 2-for-8 with the game on the line this year. Both of his makes and seven of his attempts were three-pointers. That's a step up from last year, when he came up empty on five attempts. In his rookie year, he was 1-for-2. 

Overall, that puts him at 3-for-15 in his career for an effective field goal percentage of .267. He had a huge three against the Clippers, but he has a long way to go before he solidifies himself as a clutch shooter.  

New Jersey Nets: Deron Williams

The good news is that since coming to the New Jersey Nets, Deron Williams has led the team in both attempts and makes with the game on the line. The bad news is that means he's only 3-for-6, as the Nets don't have that many opportunities to win late in games. 

Over the course of his career, Williams has been one of the best clutch shooters in the league, albeit one of the most unknown. He's made 18 shots on 45 attempts, including three hits from distance. That's good for an effective field goal percentage of .400.

His 18 makes are among the most in the league in the last five years. 

New Orleans Hornets: Eric Gordon

There are three Hornets who are tied with the most shots to tie or take the lead, and they are tied at the less than impressive sum of one. However, one of those three, Eric Gordon, has a history of being a crunch time performer. 

In his brief career, he's hit 4-of-8 attempts, with one make from deep. That gives him an effective field goal percentage of .563. 

Gordon is not Chris Paul, but he's certainly a player the Hornets could build around. 

New York Knicks: Carmelo Anthony

Since becoming a Knick, Carmelo Anthony has been far and away the team's most clutch scorer. In the brief time after the trade deadline last season, he went 3-for-6. This year, he's gone 4-for-8 including three treys.

That gives him an effective field goal percentage of .607, the highest among players with at least five attempts in that span. 

This is absolutely nothing new for 'Melo, though, as he's been doing it hhis whole career. He's hit 28-of-59 shots. Of those shots, six of them were from deep. That gives him an effective field goal percentage of .525 over the course of his career, the highest percentage of any active player with at least 10 makes as far as I can find. 

Melo is the poster boy for clutch. He's the guy I would pick if I had one guy to take the last shot. 

Oklahoma City Thunder: Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant has hit the most shots to tie or win this season in the NBA, with seven makes on 18 attempts. Counting one make from deep, he has an effective field goal percentage of .472 this season.

That's a huge improvement from last season, when he was just 2-of-17. Both of those makes were threes. 

Over the course of his career, Durant has hit 19 clutch shots on 66 attempts, but 11 of those makes are from deep, putting his effective field goal percentage in clutch situations at .371. 

I find the parallels between Durant and Derrick Rose fascinating. Rose has the second most makes, but a better field goal percentage on them.

They are the best two young closers in the game. They're both humble. They're both winners. They're leading young teams with championship aspirations. 

One already has two scoring titles. One already has an MVP. 

This is going to be a rivalry for the future. 

Orlando Magic: Hedo Turkoglu

We're going to give this one to Hedo Turkoglu, even though Hedo barely "do." Over the last two seasons, he's made 2-of-8 attempts, and both of his makes were from deep. 

Turkoglu has 13 makes in his career on 33 attempts, seven of them being from distance. That's good for an effective field goal percentage of .591. That's a pretty healthy percentage, but he's clearly slowing down as the years catch up to him. 

Part of the problem in Orlando is that they have really been bad in last-shot situations over the last couple of seasons.

Since 2010, they've only hit on eight of their 33 attempts when the game was on the line. Just think about that. 25 of the 55 games that Orlando has lost in two seasons that were lost on the final shot!

Philadelphia 76ers: Louis Williams

The Philadelphia 76ers have really struggled in situations where the game was on the line this year. They are just 2-of-11 in last-shot situations this season. Last year they were just 6-of-25. That's only eight makes in the the two seasons combined.

Star sixth man Louis Williams has half of those makes. 

Over the course of his career, Williams is 7-of-22, giving him an effective field goal percentage of .387. That's above average, but it's not spectacular.

There's some validity to the charge that the Sixers won't be able to win in the playoffs because they don't have a superstar who can close the game. 

For those wondering, Andre Iguodala has made 13 shots on 57 attempts in his career with an effective field goal percentage of only .254.

I chose Williams over Iguodala because over the last couple of years he's shot more, made more, and been more efficient. 

Phoenix Suns: Steve Nash

The Phoenix Suns have only made 10 shots to tie or take the lead in the last two years, but Steve Nash has made four of the shots and assisted on another two.

Over the course of his career, Nash has hit on 15 of his 61 shots, seven of those makes coming on threes, giving him an effective field goal percentage of .303. 

He's not always the guy who's going to take the shots, but his ability to create shots for others is unparalleled. 

Portland Trail Blazers: LaMarcus Aldridge

LaMarcus Aldridge has made four shots on four attempts, all twos, giving him an effective field goal percentage of 1.000. The rest of the team combined has two makes, so it's not hard to figure out who Portland's go-to guy is. 

Aldridge is new to the role, though, or at least new to success in it. He was 0-of-3 last year, and is 6-of-13 over the course of his career. 

He could be the cornerstone of a contender if the team could stay healthy for two weeks at a time. Is there something in the water in Portland?

Sacramento Kings: Marcus Thornton

Prior to last year's trade deadline, the go-to guy was Tyreke Evans, who made three shots in 10 attempts.

Since Marcus Thornton has arrived, though, he's taken over closing duties. He's improved monumentally over Evans, making, count 'em, four shots on his 10 attempts. 

All right, I'm being a tad facetious. But to be fair, Evans is 0-of-4 this year too, so he's gone 3-of-14 overall. As you can see from the video above, Thornton just appears to be one of those players who embraces the big shots. 

Over his career, he's 5-of-14 with one three for an effective field goal percentage of .392. If only he could play some defense. 

San Antonio Spurs: Manu Ginobili

While Manu Ginobili doesn't have any game-winners this year, he's still the most likely player for the Spurs to go to when the game is on the line.

He has more game-winning shots than anyone else on the team over the last two years, even without any attempts this year. 

Over the course of his career, he's made 21 shots on 77 attempts. Six of them were threes. His career effective field goal percentage in game-winning situations is .312. 

Toronto Raptors: Jose Calderon

The Raptor who has made the most game winners over the last two years is Jose Calderon, who has hit only two shots in four attempts, giving him an effective field goal percentage of .500. 

Over his career, Calderon has actually pretty consistent. He's hit on 7-of-12 shots, three of them from deep. His effective field goal percentage over his career is .583.

Utah Jazz: The Putback

The Utah Jazz have discovered an interesting strategy—miss the game-winning or game-tying shot, and then have a big man win the game with the putback.

The Jazz big man combination of Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap have combined for seven game winning shots over the last two years and as far as I can tell, most of them have been putbacks—including the one above. 

Obviously, this is not a long-term strategy that the Jazz should pursue. The majority of those misses seem to be coming from Devin Harris, who has hit on only one of his eight attempts.

It might be time for the Jazz to draft a backcourt to go with all of their talent bigs. 

Washington Wizards: No One

The Washington Wizards are the only other team in the NBA besides the Bobcats that have not made a shot to win a game with 24 seconds or less this season. Technically, they have two shots this year that match the criteria of 24 seconds or less remaining on the clock and a shot to tie or take the lead, though. 

It just so happens the Wizards ultimately lost that game. 

The Wizards just don't have anyone who hits game-winners. John Wall has hit a few game-tying shots in his brief career, but I just can't find the video of it. Instead, I've posted the Cartier Martin shot which sent the game to overtime against the Sixers last year.