One Year Away: 15 College Football Teams Using 2012 to Set Up 2013

While everyone else is talking about who will win it all in 2012, it’s interesting to consider which teams will use this coming season to set up a championship run in 2013.

Yes, while certain programs have the required balance of returning talent, previous season success, depth and advantageous scheduling this season, others are just a mere year away from mixing up a similar winning cocktail.

To illustrate, in 2010 Alabama went 10-3 and blitzed Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl before blazing a trail in 2011 that ended when Nick Saban victoriously lifted the crystal pigskin in the air.

Similarly, the 2009 Auburn Tigers went 8-5 and barely beat Northwestern in the Outback Bowl, only to streak to a 14-0 finish in 2010 that included a Heisman trophy and a national title.

One of the alluring characteristics of college football is that it is so fluid from a talent pool standpoint, meaning that not only is this season’s future champion hiding among 67 BCS teams, but next year’s is a diamond in the rough that won’t garner a huge portion of attention in the current campaign.

The following slideshow pinpoints 15 college football teams that are a “year away” and will utilize the 2012 season to make a run in 2013.

This is a run that may end in a division or conference title, or instead, the finish line might be at a BCS bowl or perhaps even a date with destiny in the 2013-14 BCS title game slated for Jan. 7 in Pasadena.

As a note, the returning starter’s figures for this presentation are from the Phil Steele brain trust while the recruiting numbers come via the Rivals.com comprehensive rankings.

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders' 5-7 finish in 2011 marked the first time Tech ended a season below .500 since going 5-6 under Spike Dykes in 1992.

Texas Tech returns a whopping 20 starters in 2012 from a team that was bombarded with injuries and struggled monumentally to play defense or establish a running game.

That said, the Red Raiders ought to play better in the coming season, and then in 2013 and 2014 might explode as Tech will be soon be led by what was rated as the No. 20 recruiting class of 2011 and the No. 26 class of 2012.

If Tech fans can manage to be patient with Tommy Tuberville, the rewards could prove richer than even those provided at the apex of the Mike Leach era.

TCU

Though it’s logical to think that TCU will need some time to adjust to the Big 12, their presence on this list has more to do with raw statistics than conference snobbery.

The Horned Frogs return only 13 starters from their young 2011 team that went 11-2, but what’s even more compelling from a “next year” perspective is the recent recruiting success of Gary Patterson and friends.

The 2012 Toads will be led, technically, by a senior and junior class that both ranked No. 46 when originally recruited in 2009 and 2010, but after that the future is even brighter.

Yes, up on the horizon for 2013-14 are classes that ranked No. 26 in 2011 and No. 37 in 2012, giving TCU the fifth best Big 12 leadership class (just behind Texas Tech and Oklahoma State) coming into the season after next.

You’ve got to think that the Horned Frogs will continue to recruit even more successfully with their move into the BCS, and realistically their talent pool may be timed absolutely perfectly for a run in 2013 or 2014.

Clemson

After winning their first ACC title in 20 years in 2011, Clemson returns a mere 14 starters to its 2012 product.

Though the Tigers might put together another run this season, 2013 absolutely oozes with potential based on experience levels and a top-tier talent pool.

Technically the seniors of the 2013 campaign were ranked No. 19 when originally recruited in 2010, and then the junior class that came to campus in 2011 were rated a lofty No. 8.

Don’t forget about Clemson being a dominant factor in the ACC, especially if they fly a bit under the radar in 2012, because this is a program that is moving at a blistering pace towards something huge.

Miami (Fla.)

With scandal still at the forefront of college football and NCAA sanctions flying left, right and center, it’s eerily quiet in Miami as the Hurricanes move ahead under the cloud of impending penalties.

Regardless of all this and what it might mean to the ‘Canes 2012 campaign, Miami returns only 12 starters coming into this season, earning them the dubious ranking of No. 96 nationally.

Moving into 2013 and 2014, Miami will be well-served to get any bans on postseason play out of the way sooner rather than later as their senior class (technically) in 2013 was ranked No. 16 when originally brought in 2010.

Beyond that, as experience levels and depth increase, Miami put the No. 9 ranked class together this past February, meaning that if Hurricane fans can weather the storm and hold on to Al Golden, they may return to title form.

This, of course, could mean capturing their first-ever ACC divisional or conference crown.

Virginia

In his second year in 2011, Mike London had the Cavaliers looking like they were just steps away from double-digit wins, and luckily for Virginia fans, he seems to have convinced recruits of this optimistic outlook.

Virginia returns a national-low 11 starters in 2012, meaning that eight wins may be hard to repeat or exceed, but looking forward, the Cavaliers have managed to attract the No. 25 ranked recruiting class of 2011 and the No. 27 group of 2012.

The Cavaliers haven’t won the ACC since 1995 and haven’t ever won a Coastal division crown (the league split in 2005), but look out for them to be a potential breakthrough team in 2013 and especially in 2014.

Rutgers

With Greg Schiano out at Rutgers, it may seem like a stretch to say that the Scarlet Knights are a “year away” from anything but the unknown.

But the truth is that Schiano has built a solid foundation at Rutgers, and if properly managed, the Knights have a tremendous opportunity in the new Big East.

Rutgers returns 15 starters in 2012 but will continue to groom recruiting classes that ranked No. 32 in 2011 and No. 24 in 2012.

If these talented athletes can be ushered into leadership positions, the Scarlet Knights have a real chance in both 2013 and 2014, in what will be a completely transformed Big East conference.

Ohio State

For his opening stanza in Columbus, Urban Meyer will welcome back 18 of Luke Fickell’s starters from 2011 and then have a cupboard of talented athletes to work with.

Ohio State will obviously be “one year away” since they are postseason/championship banned in 2012, but really the timing of their sanctions gives the Buckeyes a tremendous opportunity to build a new team that can right the wrongs of 2011.

Ohio State’s last two recruiting classes were ranked No. 11 and No. 4 respectively, giving Urban Meyer everything he could need to field a title team in 2013.

Plus, he has the advantage Lane Kiffin “enjoyed” in 2010 and 2011 of playing behind the cover of a postseason ban, which has the effect of overlooking errors naturally suffered in a rebuilding effort.

Penn State

Some might argue that Bill O’Brien will require at least a year to begin to transform Penn State football into something that retains the best of the past and begins to heal itself from the worst.

But from a purely football perspective, O’Brien and company may need the year just to get the actual playing product ramped up to title form.

Penn State returns a mere 12 starters in 2012 (tied for No. 96 overall and No. 9 in the Big Ten), which breaks down to only five guys on each side of the ball, and then two on special teams.

Beyond this, you’ve got what was originally the No. 12 recruiting class in 2010 coming into their senior campaign in 2013, meaning that perhaps the Nittany Lions are a year away from a much-needed curative season.

Notre Dame

It’s unfortunate that the Irish return only 15 starters in 2012, because the truth is they have one of the most exciting schedules in college football this year.

Yes, they’ll still be a formidable squad, but expectations won’t be near as high as they were coming into 2011, and the slate will be markedly more difficult.

If the Irish faithful can be patient with Brian Kelly, look out in 2013 and then in 2014, when the No. 14 recruiting class from 2010 and then the No. 10 group from 2011 takes over the leadership reins.

 

Stanford

Stanford is yet another squad that should be a good team again in 2012 (especially if they can improve upon their No. 95 ranked pass defense). But with only 14 returning starters, they may struggle to reach the 11 wins enjoyed in 2011.

What is promising moving forward in the land of the singular Cardinal is what David Shaw has been able to do from a recruiting standpoint.

Shaw lassoed the No. 22 class in 2011, and then this past Feb. he roped in the No. 5 ranked group, meaning that all indicators point to great things from the dancing tree in 2013, 2014 and beyond.

Oregon

The Ducks are due to return only 13 starters from their Rose Bowl team in 2011, and gone are a hefty portion of skill players from an offense that ranked No. 3 nationally in scoring and No. 5 in rushing yards.

Oregon, like Stanford, will still be a force to be reckoned with in 2012, but it may struggle to make it back to the BCS, especially if the NCAA zaps them from a sanction standpoint.

Looking forward, the Ducks have talent stockpiled to the tune of the No. 13 class of 2010 and the No. 9 ranked group from 2011.

“Off years” are relative, and at Oregon, it may mean a drop off to nine to 10 wins. But in 2013, look out, because these are Ducks that will be back with a vengeance (if they ever left in the first place).

 

California

After suffering 5-7 and then 7-7 finishes in 2010 and 2011, Cal hardly seems like a sleeping giant, especially when you throw in the fact that they return only 11 starters in 2012.

But moving forward, the Golden Bears present an interesting case, mostly based on the fact that Jeff Tedford has managed to haul in some impressive, and highly rated, recruiting classes.

The 2013 Cal team will be made up of the No. 11 class of 2010 (yes, that’s a national rating), the No. 17 group from 2011 and then the No. 23 class of 2012.

Cal is another fanbase that should fight the urge to make a leadership change just yet as their program might be on the verge of combining depth, experience and talent for a deliciously victorious cocktail…as soon as 2013.

Washington

Washington’s 7-7 campaign in 2011 was pockmarked by a defense that struggled to keep up with the Husky offense.

In 2012, 14 starters return to campus, but the big question that looms is whether that's enough for Steve Sarkisian to lead Washington to more than seven wins for the first time in his tenure?

If you don’t like the Huskies' chances to upend the likes of Stanford and Oregon in the Pac-12 North this season, 2013 is compelling.

Yes, this is the season when Sarkisian’s recruiting efforts will begin to infiltrate leadership roles to the tune of the No. 28 class of 2010, the No. 23 class of 2011 and the No. 20 group from 2012.

It’s also important to note that Washington’s 2009 class (technically this year’s seniors) didn’t garner a spot in the Top 50 rankings.

Auburn

You could actually make an argument that Auburn’s next memorable season in college football is 2012, when they return 18 starters from their young 8-5 product from last season.

That said, 2013 actually sets up as an even more special season based solely on recruiting numbers.

And it’s important to remember that in the past five BCS national championship games, no team participating (the winner or the loser) had a senior or junior class that wasn’t originally recruited as at least a No. 15 ranked class.

Auburn’s 2013 seniors were ranked as the No. 4 class of 2010, while the juniors were the No. 7 group of 2011.

These numbers are so significantly and consistently important to who goes “all the way” that the Tigers should be considered a legitimate contender in 2013.

Texas A&M

At first glance, it would seem that teams like Texas A&M, Missouri and TCU will all need at least a year to get themselves sorted in their new league homes.

Yes, the Aggies are likely to need at least a year to make the change from the high-flying passing, minimal defense Big 12 to the grind-it-out-on-the-ground, stifling defense SEC, but beyond that 2013, presents other possibilities.

Texas A&M returns 16 starters in 2012, foreshadowing experience. But pulling back a few extra layers, we can expect ex-coach Mike Sherman’s recruiting efforts begin to pay off more as time goes on.

The 2013 Aggies will be built on the No. 17 class of 2010, the No. 27 group from 2011 and then the No. 15 class of 2013. meaning that though A&M won’t have the numbers of LSU and Alabama, they’ll definitely be in it to win it.