Did the Miami Heat Outplay the Boston Celtics Last Night?

In the wake of a 115-107 loss to the Celtics, LeBron James tacitly told as much to ESPN's Brian Windhorst:

"We left Boston feeling awful at our performance. I don't feel as bad tonight. Not only did they make the open shots, but they made all the contested shots."

By how we traditionally come to define "outplay," the scoreboard tells the tale: Boston outplayed Miami because Boston won—and not even by a little. The Celtics jumped ahead at the outset, and held the Heat at Anthony Davis' arm length for most of the night. 

But if we adjust for some luck, Miami could have a strong case for having played better. Credit to Boston for closing the game out, credit to Garnett for splashing more jumpers than an Olympic diving board, but 60.6% shooting is usually aided by some good fortune. When that mark comes along with a whopping 31 made field goals from outside the paint, it almost certainly is aided by deity caprice. 

By my count, the Celtics shot 14 times in Hubie's painted area. In contrast, the Heat fired 15 paint balls through the first two quarters and 30 times in total. 

Not all proper offense has to run near the hoop, and Miami was certainly slain last Finals by a jump-shooting team. But Boston was not exactly unleashing an incredible barrage of three-pointers, the far-sighted man's version of a good shot. The Celtics managed a splendid/fortunate 64.3% from three-point range, but fired away only 14 times. That amount is a little less than their 14.9 attempt average, and Boston is ranked 24th league-wide in that respect.  

So, to beat the Heat, the Celtics hit many, many mid-to-long twos (24 to be exact). In the fourth quarter alone, Boston nailed eight of these shots between 10 and 23 feet, with Garnett converting an incredible five. The Celtics are certainly good from this range, but "good" means 41%, not last night's 61.5%. This kind of shot is truth serum, merely employed to keep defenses honest. It would seem the Heat got an oddly fatal dose of truth serum. 

What do I take away when the victor gets so lucky? Well, Garnett looked spry and Rondo's hitting jumpers like he's about to follow Jason Kidd's career arc. This is good news for the green guys. Beyond that, Miami looked better. Which, in this lockout-infused irregular season, could mean nothing at all come playoff time.