UFC on Fuel TV: Gustafsson vs. Silva B/R MMA Staff Predictions

John HeinisApr 13, 2012

Fight fans have been eagerly anticipating a UFC card ever since March 3 and their prayers are finally answered this Saturday.

The headlining bout pits two hungry light heavyweights looking to make a statement in the form of Alexander "The Mauler" Gustafsson and Thiago Silva.

The winner will likely be just a fight or two away from a title shot at 205 pounds.

The "All-American" Brian Stann will look to get back to his winning ways in the co-main event when he takes on fellow striker Alessio Sakara in a fight that seems unlikely to go the full 15 minutes.

Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Paulo Thiago will welcome Golden Glory product Siyar Bahadurzada to the Octagon in another 17-pound contest.

In a featherweight bout that promises fireworks, Dennis Siver, making his 145-pound debut, takes on Diego "The Gun" Nunes.

In a welterweight showdown, The Ultimate Fighter alumni DaMarques "Darkness" Johnson will square off with regional scene superstar John Maguire.

Finally, opening up the main card are two bantamweights who love to scrap in the form of Brad Pickett and Damacio Page.

Bleacher Report Featured Columnists Matt Juul, Jeffrey McKinney, and myself John Heinis, are predicting who will get their hand raised this weekend.

Brad Pickett vs. Damacio Page

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John Heinis: "The Angel of Death (best nickname in MMA?)" Damacio Page is most likely fighting for his spot on the UFC roster when he takes on Brad "One Punch" Pickett.

Page comes into this bout on the heels of back-to-back losses to Demetrious Johnson and Brian Bowles.

Meanwhile, Pickett is just 1-2 in his past three, losing to rising star Renan Barao, perennial contender Scott Jorgensen and outpointing Ivan Menjivar.

So while these are two talented bantamweights, they still have a ways to go before they are anywhere near the top of the division (though Pickett does own a WEC win over Johnson).

Both 135-pounders like to stand and trade, yet still possess some serious skills on the ground, so this should be a very fan-friendly affair to open the main card with.

This will be a close, entertaining fight, but I think Pickett is just simply the better fighter and he will prove it here.

Brad Pickett via split decision

Matt Juul: Pickett, a solid boxer with, surprisingly, a number of submission wins has an edge in nearly every department over Page.

After suffering two straight losses, Page has to win this fight as a pink slip from the promotion looms over his head.

Sadly for Page, it will be a déjà vu moment as Pickett will once again force him to tap out.

Brad Pickett via submission (second round)

Jeffrey McKinney: In a bantamweight battle Brad Pickett will meet Damacio Page.

Both Pickett and Page come into this fight off losses.

Pickett lost to top bantamweight contender Renan Barao, while Page has two straight losses by guillotine choke to Demetrious Johnson and Brian Bowles.

Although Page is the younger fighter who is known to finish fights, I believe Pickett will have the experience factor going for him.

Look for Pickett to try to go for a submission as Page has five of his six losses by tapout.

Brad Pickett by submission

DaMarques Johnson vs. John Maguire

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John Heinis: Maguire, a slick grappler whose riding a six-fight win streak, scraps with Ultimate Fighter veteran Damarques Johnson in this welterweight showdown.

Johnson has had little success in the cage outside of the regional scene and TUF alumni, but given Maguire's lack of top-tier competition, this one could go either way.

Maguire, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, will look to control this fight on the ground, while Johnson will hope to pick the UFC newcomer apart standing.

In an entertaining bout that nearly goes the distance, expect Maguire to catch Johnson with a slick submission near the end of the third round.

John Maguire via third round submission (guillotine choke)

Matt Juul: Another striker vs. grappler matchup, submission ace John Maguire will look to extend his winning streak to seven against DaMarques Johnson.

This is a really bad matchup for Johnson who has suffered numerous submission defeats in the past, losing to the Ultimate Fighter winners Court McGee, Amir Sadollah and James Wilks.

Expect another tapout win for Maguire.

John Maguire via first round submission

Jeffrey McKinney: In a welterweight scrap, TUF season nine runner up DaMarques Johnson will meet English fighter John Maguire.

Johnson has had an up-and-down UFC career thus far, going 4-3.

Each of his wins have come by TKO or submission, while his three losses have ended in submission.

Maguire is a relatively newcomer to the UFC.

After having success in England, the former UCMMA welterweight champion made his UFC debut at UFC 138, defeating Justin Edwards.

Maguire has only been stopped once in his career and holds a record of 17-3.

Although Maguire has had the more accomplished overall career, it’s hard to count out Johnson.

Especially since he has more UFC experience.

Still, I give the slight edge to Maguire. Although both men know how to finish fights, Maguire may prove to be more dangerous in the submission department.

John Maguire by decision

Dennis Siver vs. Diego Nunes

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John Heinis: Dennis "The Menace" Siver makes his debut at 145 pounds here, taking on Diego "The Gun" Nunes.

Both fighters were dark horse title contenders not too long ago.

Siver had rattled off four straight wins at lightweight before getting trounced by Donald Cerrone at UFC 137, and Nunes was riding a three-fight win streak before he was bloodied and beaten by Kenny Florian at UFC 131.

The reason that is worth mentioning is that the winner here will take a big leap forward in the UFC's featherweight division.

Siver and Nunes both have earned their purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but Siver is more of a finisher and certainly has the much heavier strikes—assuming he doesn't lose much power from cutting the extra 10 pounds.

Nunes is more of a guy who knows how to score points on the feet and lock on guillotine choke if he knocks his opponent down.

Given that Siver will also have the wrestling advantage, I can't see him losing as long as he cuts weight the right way.

Dennis Siver via second round TKO (spinning back kick and punches)

Matt Juul: Dropping down to featherweight for the first time in his career, German striker Dennis Siver will have a considerable strength advantage in his divisional debut against Diego Nunes.

Both fighters are technical, solid strikers who effectively utilizing spinning kicks. The difference, however, is in the grappling department.

Siver has had trouble with submission artists in the past, most recently tapping out to Donald Cerrone at UFC 137. Nunes, like Cerrone, has the great combination of technical strikes and slick jiu-jitsu skills that will prove to be Siver’s kryptonite once again.

Diego Nunes via unanimous decision

Jeffrey McKinney: After losing to Donald Cerrone in his most recent lightweight bout, Dennis Siver has decided to move to featherweight.

He will not have an easy debut though as he takes on top featherweight Diego Nunes.

This could turn into a classic striker vs. grappler battle as Siver will be looking to keep the fight standing.

In his most recent fight though, Nunes proved that he can score some points of his own in the standing department.

And when one of your training partners is Jose Aldo, you have to have some confidence in your striking.

Both of these guys are dangerous fighters. But, I like Nunes' chances.

While I think Siver will have a huge power advantage dropping to featherweight, Nunes is a guy who knows how to win.

Although he hasn’t had a finish since 2008, Nunes has also never been finished himself.

This could possibly be the fight of the night, and could go either way.

But, I think Nunes will pull off the win.

Diego Nunes by split decision

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Paulo Thiago vs. Siyar Bahadurzada

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John Heinis: Paulo Thiago started off his professional career with 11 wins in a row, culminating in a knockout win over perennial welterweight contender Josh Koscheck at UFC 95.

However, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace has gone just 3-3 since that Feb. 2009 bout, losing to top-tier opposition in the form of Jon Fitch, Martin Kampmann and Diego Sanchez.

However, those are all grappling-oriented opponents and Siyar Bahadurzada is definitely a striker.

"Unstoppable" is making his UFC debut riding a six-fight win streak, including an impressive five knockouts.

While the Golden Glory product boast a rock solid 20-4-1 professional record, he has been tapped before by jiu-jitsu-savvy opponents in Jorge Santiago and Kazuo Misaki.

Thiago's BJJ is much slicker than those two, so while Bahadurzada will put forth a noble effort, the Brazilian will add his ninth submission win to his resume.

Paulo Thiago via second round submission (D'arce Choke)

Matt Juul: Making his UFC debut, Siyar Bahadurzada has been a force on the international scene, winning and defending his Shooto championship while taking on some pretty tough competition.

A well-rounded product of the Golden Glory and Reign Training Center camps, Bahadurzada is a tough striker who will look to contend with Paulo Thiago on the feet.

For Thiago, he’s got to get this fight to the ground and work his world-class jiu-jitsu, an area of weakness in Bahadurzada’s game, having been submitted by both Jorge Santiago and Kazuo Misaki.

This fight is a very interesting stylistic match-up between a top-tier grappler and a hard-nosed striker. In the end, however, Thiago’s jiu-jitsu will make the difference.

Paulo Thiago via third round submission

Jeffrey McKinney: UFC vet Paulo Thiago will welcome UFC newcomer Siyar Bahadurzada to the UFC.

Bahadurzada is an Afghan fighter who has won five of his last six fights by knockout.

Bahadurzada is also a former Shooto Light heavyweight champion and has been in fights with Evangelista Santos and Jorge Santiago.

He will have a tough fight ahead of him as he takes on the very dangerous Paulo Thiago.

Thiago is coming off of a UFC 134 win over David Mitchell.

After starting his career 11-0 with seven submission victories, Thiago has gone 3-3 losing to top welterweight fighters Jon Fitch, Martin Kampmann and Diego Sanchez.

If Thiago wants to get back into the mix, he will have to put together some good victories.

It’s hard to go against someone with the experience and power of Bahadurzada, but you never know what to expect from a fighter making his UFC debut.

I believe Thiago will win his second straight fight against someone new to the UFC.

Paulo Thiago by decision

Brian Stann vs. Alessio Sakara

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John Heinis: "All-American" Brian Stann looks to right the ship after being thoroughly dominated by top middleweight Chael Sonnen at UFC 136.

Stann may never become a UFC champion, but his finishing ability and decorated military past is always going to make him a guy fans are going to root for.

Sakara, a former professional boxer, would be remiss in standing and trading with Stann and instead utilizing his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

However, Sakara has never turned down a stand up war before, so don't expect the 30-year-old to change that philosophy anytime soon.

Also factor in that Sakara has never beaten anyone above average—best noted by his three most recent losses to Houston Alexander, Chris Leben and Chris Weidman—it seems pretty clear to me we have another Brian Stann victory on our hands.

Brian Stann via third round KO

Matt Juul: After catapulting into MMA stardom with three straight big wins, Brian Stann suffered his first loss at middleweight at UFC 136, losing via submission to Chael Sonnen.

Facing the No.1 middleweight contender may have been too much too soon for the former Marine as serious holes in his ground game were exposed.

Luckily for Stann, Alessio Sakara doesn’t possess the same wrestling pedigree as Sonnen and should make it easier for “All-American” to keep the fight standing.

Stann’s heavy hands and ever improving overall game should keep Sakara on his toes.

It will be interesting to see how Sakara bounces back from a torn ACL and if he can contend with Stann’s strength advantage.

Brian Stann via second round TKO

Jeffrey McKinney: In a bout between two middleweight knockout artists, Brian Stann will take on Alessio Sakara.

Stann was looking for a title fight with Anderson Silva before losing to Chael Sonnen at UFC 136.

Stann will hope to get back into the winners circle against Sakara.

Like Stann, Sakara likes to keep the fight standing with nine of his 15 wins coming by way of knockout.

Sakara will have the experience edge coming into this fight. But the longer it stands, the better I like Stann’s chances.

Stann has a ton of power in his hands and Sakara has been knocked out in the past.

Brian Stann by KO

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva

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John Heinis: 22-year-old prospect Alexander Gustafsson has put his ace on the MMA map with back-to-back knockouts over Matt Hamill and Vladimir Matyushenko.

That makes it four wins in a row for "The Mauler," so a win in his home country over a name like Thiago Silva would certainly put him in title contention.

While there is no telling how Silva will perform after a year suspension due to a failed post-fight drug test, you can't deny the talent of a fighter who started his career 13-0 and has only lost twice in his career.

The fact that those two losses came at the hands of former UFC light heavyweight champions Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida is even more telling.

Expect this one to be a bloody war on the feet despite the fact both fighters are more than competent on the ground.

Despite being the far smaller man here, Gustafsson still has some serious KO power and has a decent chin on him.

I'm really very torn as to who is going to walk away with the W here, but I am going to say Gustaffson takes advantage of a little ring rust.

Alexander Gustafsson via split decision

Matt Juul: After suffering his first career defeat at the hands of Phil Davis at UF 112, Alexander Gustafsson has been on a tear, finishing each opponent during his current four-fight winning streak.

With big wins over Matt Hamill and Vladimir Matyushenko, Gustafsson is making a huge jump in competition as he headlines the card opposite Thiago Silva.

Unlike Gustafsson’s previous opponents, Silva is much more aggressive and an elite Muay Thai striker.

Silva, a BJJ black belt, is also a huge threat on the ground and will truly test the young Swedish light-heavyweight no matter where the fight goes.

As long as Gustafsson doesn’t let Silva overwhelm him in the stand-up department, expect him to put on a show for his home country.

Alexander Gustafsson via split decision

Jeffrey McKinney: Two dangerous light heavyweights will meet in the main event as Alexander Gustafsson welcomes Thiago Silva back to the UFC.

After breaking Brandon Vera’s nose at UFC 125, Silva was suspended for giving a fake urine sample during a drug test.

Although Silva looked impressive in the Vera fight, his win was ruled a no contest.

Gustafsson on the other hand, has stayed busy over the past year winning fights against James Te Huna, Matt Hamill, and Vladimir Matyushenko.

Between Silva and Gustafsson, they have only lost three times and have finished all but two fights.

Silva can be very aggressive, which could work against his favor against a fighter as diverse as Gustafsson.

While Gustafsson is a dangerous fighter himself, his best bet may be to out-wrestle and tire Silva out.

This fight could go either way, but I believe it’s Gustafsson’s time to shine in front of his home crowd.