Ryan Howard Demands $18 Million in Arbitration; Is He Worth It?

Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported yesterday that Phillies superstar first baseman Ryan Howard is seeking up to $18 million in salary arbitration. Let it be known that the Phillies offered $14 million. Surely the Phillies would not hesitate to dole out the pay day for Howard, whose short career has been nothing but sweet. But, is he really worth it? I boldly say no.

Sure, Ryan Howard may the the epitome of a slugger. He's been a full time player for four years now, and here are the numbers:

2005: .288 average, 22 home runs, 63 runs batted in (NL Rookie of the Year)

2006: .313 average, 58 home runs, 149 runs batted in (NL MVP, Silver Slugger, All-Star)

2007: .268 average, 47 home runs, 136 runs batted in (No awards)

2008: .251 average, 48 home runs, 146 runs batted in (No awards)

Surely, these numbers are significant in proving Ryan Howard's greatness. But, they don't exactly cover the whole story. While Howard boasts superhuman power numbers, being one of the most productive cleanup hitters in the MLB the last four years, his numbers suggest that he is regressing by the year.

Let me explain. His home run totals have been consistent, with his totals of 22 and 58 home runs being obvious outliers on a scatterplot of his season totals, it would leave totals of 47 and 48. Not bad, eh? Well, Ryan Howard, despite having monster power numbers and maybe even the most popular jersey in Philadelphia, is nothing more than a slugger. To get this out of the way, I am not saying that is a bad thing.

Howard's other stats, besides the triple crown stats, are far from appealing if you were a scout looking at his whole stats rather than a fan glancing at his triple crown stats on mlb.com. In his four seasons in the big leagues, here are other important numbers that many fail to look at.

2005: 88 games, 90 hits, 17 doubles, 33 walks, 100 strikeouts, .365 OBP (NL ROY)

2006: 159 games, 182 hits, 25 doubles, 108 walks, 181 strikeouts, .425 OBP (NL MVP)

2007: 144 games, 142 hits, 26 doubles, 107 walks, 199 strikeouts, .392 OBP

2008: 162 games, 153 hits, 26 doubles, 81 walks, 199 strikeouts, .339 OBP

These numbers are pretty scary. In each of his four years in the major leagues, Howard has struck out more times than he did the previous season. The only exception was 2008, but he did strike out the same number of times he did in 2007. Could he be levelling out as a consistent 199-strikeout hitter? Maybe not that exact number every season, but I would be shocked if he wasn't a league leader in strikeouts consistently.

To go with all those strikeouts at the dish, there are his walk numbers. After his walk rate spiked in his 2006 season at 108, Howard has walked less each year after that. He only dropped from 108 to 107 walks between the 2006 and 2007 seasons, which isn't really a drop. However, the real turn-off is that in 2008, Howard played in nearly 20 more games, walking 26 less times.

As if that weren't enough, Howard's On-Base-Percentage (OBP) has virtually been in free fall since spiking during the 2006 season. In 2006, Howard posted an astonishing .425 On-Base-Percentage. It is very hard to keep up that kind of production, so it does not take a rocket scientist to predict that his OBP fell in 2007.

In fact, it fell over 33 points from the On-Base-Percentage posted in 2006. .392 is still a great On-Base-Percentage, but he is keeping consistent with a dropout trend. In 2008, Howard's On-Base-Percentage fell an alarming 53 points from the previous season to a sub-par .339.

Also, people cite Howard's "clutch hitting down the stretch to bail out the Phillies," to his credit. However, if it were looked at from another point of view, if Howard showed up to play in the first half of the season, he wouldn't have to catch up with a monster second half.

In his career, Howard has an incredibly skewed production in his monthly stats. For example, here are his career stats by the month:

April: .230 batting average, 13 home runs, 37 runs batted in, .356 OBP, 53 walks, 90 strikeouts

May: .251 batting average, 30 home runs, 83 runs batted in, .333 OBP, 36 walks, 88 strikeouts

June: .264 batting average, 24 home runs, 74 runs batted in, .339 OBP, 34 walks, 109 strikeouts

July: .299 batting average, 33 home runs, 94 runs batted in, .399 OBP, 62 walks, 127 strikeouts

August: .283 batting average, 33 home runs, 100 runs batted in, .379 OBP, 60 walks, 142 strikeouts

September: .317 batting average, 44 home runs, 111 runs batted in, .435 OBP, 86 walks, 136 strikeouts

Career: .279 batting average, 177 home runs, 499 runs batted in, .380 OBP, 331 walks, 692 strikeouts

A suggestion for Mr. Howard: if you hit better in the first three months of the season, you won't have to work yourself so hard in the last three months!

Also, Howard has proven to be a rather weak hitter in late and close games. In his career in these situations, Howard has compiled the following stats:

.247 batting average, 25 home runs, 75 runs batted in, .394 OBP, 76 walks, 138 strikeouts.

Of course the home runs are big, but you would think for a hitter as intimidating as Howard he would have much better numbers in the clutch. For a guy who hits over 45 home runs per year, I would expect more walks, runs batted in, home runs, and a higher batting average if I were Charlie Manuel, or Philadelphia's General Manager, for that matter.

Finally, let's look at the contracts of comparable hitters to Ryan Howard.

Travis Hafner, 1B, Cleveland: signed four year, 52 million dollar deal through 2012; averaging $13 million per year.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee: in arbitration with the Brewers; made $670 thousand in 2008.

Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay: signed three year, 24 million dollar deal through 2010; averaging eight million dollars per year.

Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pittsburgh: agreed to one year, seven million dollar contract for '09 to avoid arbitration.

...And this guy wants $18 million?! Wow, Albert Pujols only made $13.8 million last year, where does Ryan Howard get off demanding $18? He is a good power hitter and all, but there are several people in line deserving that kind of money who are not getting it. What makes Ryan Howard any better then underpaid top-tier players?