Johan Santana and 4 New York Mets Who Could Be Trade Bait in 2012

The Mets have won their first three games of the season, much to the surprise of the baseball world. The team set a record for the biggest cut in payroll from one year to the next, and seemingly were content with a last place finish, considering the improvements to the other teams in the NL East.

However, Sandy Alderson seems to be a man with a plan.

Alderson has a track record of turning around franchises with not much money, and has surrounded himself with great baseball minds who have developed an organizational approach. He also has a record of trading away a veteran with value near the deadline to acquire an impact prospect.

Time to be realistic: the Mets will not continue at this pace and will eventually hit a horrendous swoon. Attendance will drop and Alderson will be faced with the decision of trading away the few proven players on this roster in order to upgrade the thin minor league system.

Here are potential players that may have significant value.

David Wright is not considered due to the fact he can void his 2013 option if he's traded, making him a rental player and teams will not pay top dollar for an average third basemen with declining numbers.

No. 5: Tim Byrdak

Despite the fact that Byrdak is 38 years old, he has averaged 8.6 K/9 innings in his career, and teams value lefty specialists that are adept at inducing swings and misses in the playoffs.

The Hulk Hulgan look-a-like is a valuable asset to the Mets bullpen, but the team will not be afraid to deal him for a mid-tier prospect if they are not in the wild card hunt near the midway point.

The Mets have several lefty specialist arms in the minors, so it will not be a huge hit.

Chances of being dealt: greater than 60 percent.

No. 4: Frank Francisco

Frank Francisco bears a striking resemblance to another Mets closer who the fans would like to forget.

Nevertheless, Francisco is a hard-thrower with plenty of closing experience, and has averaged 9.9 K/9 innings over his eight-year career.

Francisco does have some character issues, but he seems to have cleaned up his act since then.

Francisco has set a Mets record already by recording saves in each of the team's first three games. He signed a two-year deal worth $12 million in the offseason, forcing the Mets to take on a portion of should they deal him.

As with Byrdak, the Mets will gladly hold on to Francisco if they are in contention, but if not the team may follow the path of 2011 and trade their closer named "Francisco."

Chances of being traded: 40 percent.

No. 3: Daniel Murphy

"My name is Daniel Murphy and I bat third," Daniel Murphy once announced as a freshman when asked what position he plays.

That is precisely the problem.

In the National League, you must play a position. Thus far, the Mets have experimented with him at left field, which was an utter disaster, and first base, which is now occupied by Ike Davis.

Murphy has been sufficient at second base and his offense is plentiful for a middle-infield spot, but if things begin to go awry, the Mets may be hand-tied with what to do.

Murphy is a fantastic hitter, who works incredibly hard. He is 27 years old though, and may have his most value as a DH in the American League.

With Jordany Valdespin and Reese Havens in the minor leagues, and Murphy due to become arbitration eligible in 2013, the Mets may look to go in another direction.

The organization does love Murphy's offense, so this will be a tough call.

Chances of being dealt: 30 percent.

No. 2: Mike Pelfrey

For a team to invest a ninth overall pick and $5.3 million in guaranteed money, it's hard to believe the Mets were willing to release him just before this season just to save some cash.

That shows you how frustrated the organization has become in Pelfrey, who has seemed to take three steps back for every two steps forward in his career.

Pelfrey has a 50-54 record with a 4.40 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in his six-year career. He has had some incredible peaks and valleys in his career, but it shows he lacks confidence when he can feature a 95 MPH fastball, 91 MPH hard sinker and a serviceable slider yet he has been unable to sustain any sort of success.

Big Pelf is the player in most need of a quick start, because the organization is running low on patience.

There may be another team, however, that values his durability and can perhaps allow him to reach his full potential under a knowledgeable pitching coach.

If Pelfrey is having an average season for a struggling Mets, don't be surprised if Alderson swaps him for a hitting prospect or two. This will enable New York to begin their new era of young pitching prospects.

Chances of being traded: 50 percent.

No. 1: Johan Santana

The Mets shocked the baseball world on February 1, 2008 when GM Omar Minaya traded prospects Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, and Phil Humber for the two-time Cy Young winner. The team also signed him to a contract extension of six years worth $137.5 million.

It was the richest contract given to pitcher until C.C. Sabathia eclipsed that the next offseason.

When Johan is on the mound for the Mets, the results are generally terrific.

That, however, has been far too infrequent for the Mets brass to be satisfied with. He had surgery to repair his knee after the '08 season, his elbow during the '09 season and his anterior capsule during the '10 season.

He remains one of the best pitchers in the game, and appears back to his old form even entering this season at 33 years old.

His contract expires after the 2013 season, which still has $50 million remaining. Not many teams will be in the financial situation to pull off such a coup.

This scenario happens if the Mets are struggling mightily entering July, a perennial playoff teams suffers an injury to an ace such as Josh Beckett or Justin Verlander, and that team may look to soften the blow by acquiring Santana.

Santana can net high-end prospects if he's pitching well, but the Mets will certainly need to take on half the money.

Chances he is traded: 25 percent.