The Fall and Rise of the Atlanta Braves

http://www.notfrombristol.com/2009/01/20/the-fall-and-rise-of-the-atlanta-braves/

When discussing which Major League Baseball team was the best over the course of the 1990s, only two teams have a strong case to be included in the debate: the New York Yankees and the Atlanta Braves. And since nobody really likes the Yankees (right?), we’ll talk about the Braves.

The Braves absolutely dominated the National League; they had a winning percentage of .600, nine division titles (14 in a row, extending into the current decade), five NL Pennants, and one World Series victory.

With a pitching staff that included Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine, they could stifle anyone and only needed minimal contributions from their consistently solid offense. 

Javy Lopez, Fred McGriff, and David Justice paved the way, and, after being joined by Ryan Klesko and Chipper Jones, they became the premier lineup in the majors. Adding a young Andruw Jones to the mix and replacing the veteran middle infield of Jeff Blauser and Mark Lemke with Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles (ignoring the Walt Weiss and Keith Lockhart/Bret Boone years; yikes) further separated this roster from the pack.

Their run, starting in 1991, was unprecedented and isn’t likely to be matched. They were immensely likeable, and were my first non-local sports team love (leading to my love of all current NL East teams, actually) (Nationals excluded, obviously). Then reality set in; nobody can be that good forever.

They were lucky enough to have everything click for a very long time, and then be able to patch up leaks as they happened; but then the boat finally sank.

2004 is when the Braves really started to show that they were slipping. They followed up two consecutive 101 win seasons with 96 wins that year, their first without at least two of their big three pitchers in 17 years. This was also the first season without their stalwart backstop, Javy Lopez, who departed for the Baltimore Orioles.

They paraded out a front end of the rotation that featured Russ Ortiz, John Thomson, and Jaret Wright; it’s incredible that they were able to get as much out of their staff as they did in order to win another division crown.

In 2005, Tim Hudson joined a healthy John Smoltz in the rotation, but the Braves had to piecemeal the back end together, and dropped to just 90 wins. That was still good enough for tops in the division, masking the downfall for at least one more season.

Then, in 2006, they were supplanted by the New York Mets for the top spot, as they fell to below .500 for the first time under manager Bobby Cox (he replaced Russ Nixon during the 1990 season).

General Manager John Schuerholz and his assistant (and now current G.M.), Frank Wren, tried to keep the dream alive by acquiring veterans like Bob Wickman and Edgar Renteria, but those attempts to maintain superiority failed, capped off by giving up a glut of prospects to Texas for Mark Teixeira.

This past year, Atlanta finally realized that they were not going to compete for the postseason, and traded Teix to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and a minor league pitcher, Stephen Marek.

Luckily for Braves fans, all is not lost. The front office did an incredible job of building and developing their farm system through all of their major league success. Excellent drafting, and a few recent moves have prepared this team to start a new run of success within the next couple of years.

They traded away Edgar Renteria at maximum value to the Tigers in exchange for Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez. Jurrjens started last year and put up solid numbers; he can be expected to be near the front of the Braves’ rotation for at least the next decade.

Hernandez has shown incredible progress in the minors, enough to have many clubs think he could be an All-Star caliber center fielder on most rosters within two years.

The Braves, however, have the luxury of Jason Heyward, one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and Jordan Schafer, a Grady Sizemore clone in the making, waiting in the wings. By the end of the 2010 season, the outfield will likely shape up as follows: Hernandez in left field, Schafer in Center field, and Heyward in right field.

That is going to be an offensively dominant trio, with defensive range and skill to boot.

The infield isn’t quite as promising but is still going to be a very strong unit. Brian McCann might be the best all-around catcher in the past 15 years and is only getting better. Yunel Escobar is holding down the fort at shortstop.

He burst onto the scene in 2007 with an incredible offensive showing (.326/.385/.481), and followed it up this year by being one of the best defensive middle infielders in the entire league.

If he puts it all together, he can be a 20-20-.300 hitter, with Gold Glove defense. Kelly Johnson plays a very underrated second base along side Escobar, and is just 26 years old. Kotchman is a decent hitter and a great defensive first baseman; however, he is pretty much just a stopgap till Freddy Freeman is ready for the big leagues.

Freeman is barely 19 years old, but in High-A ball, hit .316, while slugging a ridiculous .521! His walks rose from rookie league play the previous year, and his strikeout rate stayed about the same. This kid is going to be a stud.

The one weak point for the Braves will be the position that has been their strength for the longest time: third base. The Braves have almost no depth at all at the hot corner, and their only viable long-term options are at High-A ball or lower, meaning they are still at least two years or so away from the majors.

Eric Campbell seems like the most likely to flourish and be given a chance in the bigs. He has been in the organization three years, improving in all facets of the game each year. He has tons of raw power and an increasingly good eye at the plate; think Adam Dunn, but with a little less power and solid infield defense.

The next option would be Brandon Hicks, a shortstop by trade, but can certainly slide over one spot. He hasn’t done much of anything so far, but is considered to be a top prospect amongst Braves brass. The team can only hope, however, that Larry Call-Me-Chipper can keep it up for three or four more years.

The last key to the Braves’ resurgence will be the most important. This team knows what wins; hell, they’re the ones that pretty much made the formula. Pitching has to be the focus of any successful club.

As mentioned earlier, they picked up Jair Jurrjens in a trade, and gave up some medium-profile prospects (the recently acquired Marek being one of them) and one high-profile prospect (Tyler Flowers, who plays catcher and would never break through for the Braves as long as McCann is there) for Javier Vazquez, a great pitcher who may be the product of years and years of bad luck.

They also have a solid starter in Jorge Campillo, who may have the best changeup in the league (that pitch moves over nine inches!). With the signings of Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami, the staff has been rounded out for the next few years. Lowe is pretty much Greg Maddux-lite (groundball pitcher, innings eater, never hurt, great teammate), and Kawakami had one of the sickest curveballs in Asia last year.

If that pitch holds up with the different size ball used in MLB, then he will be one heck of a find. This current rotation holds a lot of potential, but it also could fall apart pretty easily.

Campillo has flamed out for the Braves (this is his second tour with them) and Mariners before, Vazquez could continue his bad luck (or prove that he’s just not as good as his talent would suggest), and Kawakami could be another Hideki Irabu. This current arrangement, though, is not what Braves fans should be excited about.

This organization has amassed possibly the best pitching prospect depth out of any team. Tommy Hanson might be the best prospect in baseball, and he’s pretty close to major league ready. Cole Rohrbough is an incredible power left-handed pitcher.

Craig Kimball is going to be the next Jonathon Papelbon. Charlie Morton had a bit of a rough year in 2008 as a 24-year-old rookie (to be expected), but he should develop into one of the better back of the rotation starters.

If Tim Hudson can get healthy or if Derek Lowe stays healthy, they will have more starting pitching depth than they know what to do with. And that’s not even acknowledging that three of their top 10 prospects are pitchers Jeff Locke, Julio Teheran, and Kris Medlan.

This pitching staff has the potential to be even better than the one that made them so dominant during the '90s.

After a few years of missing the playoffs, and in all likelihood, a few more, this Braves team will return to prominence and start competing not just for division titles, but for World Series crowns.