When To Draft Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

As draft preparation really begins, it becomes important to evaluate your own personal strategy. Every baseball draft has certain aspects to it that you need to keep in mind. Some go pitcher-heavy early. Others see a "lemming mentality," where when one player is drafted at a position a run is started on that position in the following picks. 

Drafts can get very detailed, and knowing when to take chances makes your team most effective. We all have players we target for pickup either earlier or later than we should because of a feeling.

These sleepers are helpful, but you should make sure that you have an understanding on when to pull the trigger. 

First, anyone drafted in the first five rounds isn't a sleeper. Not only are they not a sleeper, you don't take chances on players in these rounds. When you call out a name or click the mouse, you should be 100 percent confident that, barring injury, that player will be in the top-50 at the end of the year.

These are the building blocks to any squad. 

We can argue and debate the merits of drafting various positions in these five rounds (and we will), but the larger point is knowing what you're getting and using that information. 

So what exactly is a sleeper? I feel a player falls into that category for one of several reasons. The player could be coming off of an awful year. Guys like Andruw Jones somewhat fall into this category.

It comes to a belief that you think they'll recover and be back to form. Often times these players are slightly buried on on-line draft lists as well. Helps to know to look for them. 

Second category are players coming off of an injury. This year, there are a few guys that fit this bill. Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, and Brad Penny all had seasons cut short with a host of issues. Sure, you may not think of these guys as sleepers, but you have to have the confidence they're going to turn it around.  

Take Ortiz. The Red Sox have shopped for a bat all winter. They've looked at Mark Teixeira, and now there are rumors that Prince Fielder may be a candidate to come over as well in the right package.

Would Boston be looking for this type of move if they felt Ortiz was fully healthy? Probably not. Is this a guy you want to take in the early rounds? Maybe, maybe not. I'm leaning more towards no. 

Brad Penny falls into the same category. Penny was an unmitigated disaster last season, but won 16 games the prior two seasons. You can debate ballpark factors, but he certainly falls into the same sleeper category. 

The final piece is the largest piece of the sleeper pie. These are rookies or young players that you hope are going to, one, get the playing time and, two, perform when they have it. Not an easy task.

Every year, there are several that end up making big splashes. We had Evan Longoria drafted in many leagues last year just for that reason. Jacoby Ellsbury is another. 

Over the final months of the 2008 season, several players took steps toward fantasy greatness. Kelly Shoppach replaced Victor Martinez and quickly proved he can be an everyday catcher in the league.

Alexei Ramirez was right up in the Rookie of the Year voting. Clayton Kershaw was up and down several times, never fully realizing his potential. Half the pitchers on the Twins never got any recognition. 

This season, there is plenty of talent that will be available as "sleeper" picks. Assuming you're in a standard 5x5 league with 10 teams and 23 rounds, let's break down how early to start looking at some of these players. 

We hit the first five rounds. In rounds six through 10, I personally start to look to fill in my roster with continued established players. I don't like reaching for potential if a sure-thing is available. Additionally, I don't put as high a value on pitching in the early rounds of the draft.

The tail end to the front-half is when I'll start looking at my rotation. At this point in a draft, there are too many areas of concern to start looking to grab potential. 

The last three rounds (21-23), you're likely looking to fill in with an extra player or a utility position. Versatility is as much a key here as are stats. If you need a corner or middle infielder, you don't necessarily look for one that will be a star, but one that will get their time and be a decent backup should you need a quick play or have a day off to fill in. 

This leaves the second half of the draft, rounds 11 through 20. 

Largely, the first 10 rounds are spent taking better players. You should have a decent portion of your starting lineup complete be the end of the first-half to the draft. Even as you move in to rounds 11 through 15, the focus needs to be on getting your starters together.

Sure, you may love a few players, but you likely don't want them in a position to HAVE to start for you. 

The folks over at CrookedPitch.com made points on a couple overhyped sleepers. Look at this point they made on Matt Wieters, a catcher in the Baltimore organization and major sleeper:

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"Wieters is a beast of a young catcher who the Orioles drafted fifth overall in the 2007 draft. He stands 6'5″ and weighs 230 and, most importantly, is a switch hitter. The 2008 season was his first as a professional and he spent that time amassing 437 at-bats between Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie...he’s never seen a pitch at the big league level, not one!Even though he’s never hit in “the bigs”, the average draft position over at Mock Draft Central for Matt Wieters is 129.16.

That means he’s being taken in the 11th round. He’s being selected before Chris Iannetta (144.16 ADP), another promising young catcher who hit 18 Major League home runs in 333 at-bats in ‘08. He’s also being taken before Xavier Nady (152.50 ADP) who belted 25 home runs and drove in 97 and Mike Aviles (155.68 ADP) who batted .325 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases."

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A failure by Wieters is a problem because of when he's being drafted. Look at those few players that are on the board. If given the choice, wouldn't you rather build outfield depth or help a category than look to a rookie catcher? It's just too early.

Now, I will say that I think catcher is a place where you can take this kind of chance on a starter, but I wouldn't make the move this early. So we're looking at the last third to quarter of the draft as to when sleepers can play a role.

Why now? Well, at this point, you've secured most of your starting spots. Power numbers are in place, and it's time to build depth or look for upside. That's where these sleepers make a difference.

It's not that they'll be stars on your team from day one. Some might, others will not. What they are in place to do is give you flexibility on your roster.

Say you pull the trigger on a guy like Jay Bruce from last season. If Bruce is successful, you have a bargaining chip to better your team in another area, knowing that you can rely on Bruce to step in and make a difference. Evan Longoria allowed teams to do that as well, specifically if you drafter a guy like David Wright in the first round last season.

That brings us to this season. What rookies or young players should you have your eye on? A parital list should include David Price, Matt LaPorta, Wieters, Denard Span, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Masterson, Brandon Morrow, Alexei Ramirez, Andrew McCutchen, and Travis Snyder.

You could go deeper and look at both the young Yankees and Twins starting pitchers as well.

Looking at sleepers as a way to help your team succeed as opposed to being a requirement for that success is how you build a winner. Expecting the world from rookies inevitably causes more disappointment than anything else. Evaluate the talent, and take the sure thing early on in your drafts.

Be ready to explore the upside potential as you move in to the later third of the draft and you'll find sleeper success more often than not.

 

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